After winning 89 games and making it all the way to the league championship before falling to the dominant LA Dodgers, it seemed the Mets needed one more huge bat to throw them over the hump.
You make some great points Steven, but I am still glad to have Soto.
A couple points: last year Soto hit in front of Aaron Judge and hit his 41 home runs. It seems like this year, Soto might be more likely to walk 200 times than hit 40 home runs IF they don't get a proven bat behind hiim. Vientos had a good year last year, but do other teams regard him as being a potential 50 home run or 130 RBI guy? I don't think they'll pitch to Soto with Vientos on deck the way they pitched to Soto with Judge on deck.
Lindor will be very happy to have Soto hitting behind him, although last year the #2 hole was not a big problem for the team.
Alonso his 34 and Vientos just 27, but it is reasonable if Vientos had been there for the full year that 7 or more home runs would have been attainable.
I think Soto will prove to be a great Met. I hope that the teams we put around him (and Lindor) can be a strong supporting cast.
I do think the math of "where will the Mets replace Pete's 35 homers" is built into this lineup already though. Assuming Soto can replicate close to 40 homers, that's 20 homers right there out of RF that was not there last year. Can we find 15 more homers out of the rest of the team compared to last year? Let's hope so!
Thanks Ryan. Remember, though that the collection of nobody’s who they put out in right field last year hit about 22 home runs last year. So from a long ball perspective Soto represents a good 18 more home runs than what was out there. He will of course bring much more to the table, and hoping he talent is contagious to others on the roster.
I don't think the three players you list in place of Soto make the Mets better than they are with Soto, Winker and Minter. Soto is better and much more versatile than Santander, nothing excited me about Walker and, if healthy, Minter vs. Scott is pretty close.
Do I think the Mets need at least one (if not two) more bat(s) in the lineup? Yes. I think Santander going to Toronto really takes away another potential home for Alonso and I still have dreams of Vladdy joining. With Bregman and Alonso still on the market and with Toronto possibly willing to trade Guerrero, the Mets offseason cannot be judged.
Not sure if even Cohen would spend the money on Vladdy but he will certainly be the most sought after free agent next year. Would hate to trade for him this year and give up some prime prospects, knowing that it is essentially only a one year deal. Well, the same was true when we made the deal for Lindor, the two short stops we were giving up we’re not really considered the gatekeeper for that position deep into the future so it was worth the risk to see if Lindor would sign. And somehow I think they already knew the range that it would cost them to get that deal done. If they can agree on a price for Vladdy now they would work, then I’d unload prospects for him.
I love home runs. Yet I can't believe I have to be the one to say - there's more to winning baseball than home runs. We need to look at total contributions - offense, defense, baserunning and shoot, even leadership to a very small extent.
One stat that we don't talk about very much is Win Probability Added or WPA. Here's the definition: WPA "captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning."
And here's the context: For MLB regulars, here’s a quick breakdown on season-long WPA scores:
Rating WPA
Excellent +6.0
Great +3.0
Ab Avge +2.0
Average +1.0
Bel Avge 0.0
Poor -1.0
Awful -3.0
Pete Alonso had a 0.65 WPA last year. Juan Soto had a 5.98 WPA. Looking solely at hitting, the Mets made a 5-Win improvement to their offense. I'm pretty excited about the addition and don't worry much about the subtraction. Like, at all.
Brian - your reasoning is always sound and based in statistics and yes I can tend to be stuck on old metrics. No doubt Soto will be a huge boost to this team, but still worried about the gap they are leaving in power, since we know that no one but me likes to play small ball. Can’t argue with Pete’s stats as presented. Still hoping he is at first base when spring training starts.
Just for the record, I'm not opposed to Alonso being on the 2025 Mets. But definitely not for a term longer than 3 years and not at an AAV higher than what Stearns already offered. There's value to what Alonso can bring to the team. But, in my opinion, Stearns is already offering an above-market deal. He doesn't need to bid against himself.
You make some great points Steven, but I am still glad to have Soto.
A couple points: last year Soto hit in front of Aaron Judge and hit his 41 home runs. It seems like this year, Soto might be more likely to walk 200 times than hit 40 home runs IF they don't get a proven bat behind hiim. Vientos had a good year last year, but do other teams regard him as being a potential 50 home run or 130 RBI guy? I don't think they'll pitch to Soto with Vientos on deck the way they pitched to Soto with Judge on deck.
Lindor will be very happy to have Soto hitting behind him, although last year the #2 hole was not a big problem for the team.
I think that Vientos is up to that challenge, as he kind of showed in the playoffs. He'll hit as many HRs as Pete hit last year—maybe more.
Alonso his 34 and Vientos just 27, but it is reasonable if Vientos had been there for the full year that 7 or more home runs would have been attainable.
Great article, Steven.
I think Soto will prove to be a great Met. I hope that the teams we put around him (and Lindor) can be a strong supporting cast.
I do think the math of "where will the Mets replace Pete's 35 homers" is built into this lineup already though. Assuming Soto can replicate close to 40 homers, that's 20 homers right there out of RF that was not there last year. Can we find 15 more homers out of the rest of the team compared to last year? Let's hope so!
Thanks Ryan. Remember, though that the collection of nobody’s who they put out in right field last year hit about 22 home runs last year. So from a long ball perspective Soto represents a good 18 more home runs than what was out there. He will of course bring much more to the table, and hoping he talent is contagious to others on the roster.
I don't think the three players you list in place of Soto make the Mets better than they are with Soto, Winker and Minter. Soto is better and much more versatile than Santander, nothing excited me about Walker and, if healthy, Minter vs. Scott is pretty close.
Do I think the Mets need at least one (if not two) more bat(s) in the lineup? Yes. I think Santander going to Toronto really takes away another potential home for Alonso and I still have dreams of Vladdy joining. With Bregman and Alonso still on the market and with Toronto possibly willing to trade Guerrero, the Mets offseason cannot be judged.
Not sure if even Cohen would spend the money on Vladdy but he will certainly be the most sought after free agent next year. Would hate to trade for him this year and give up some prime prospects, knowing that it is essentially only a one year deal. Well, the same was true when we made the deal for Lindor, the two short stops we were giving up we’re not really considered the gatekeeper for that position deep into the future so it was worth the risk to see if Lindor would sign. And somehow I think they already knew the range that it would cost them to get that deal done. If they can agree on a price for Vladdy now they would work, then I’d unload prospects for him.
I love home runs. Yet I can't believe I have to be the one to say - there's more to winning baseball than home runs. We need to look at total contributions - offense, defense, baserunning and shoot, even leadership to a very small extent.
One stat that we don't talk about very much is Win Probability Added or WPA. Here's the definition: WPA "captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning."
And here's the context: For MLB regulars, here’s a quick breakdown on season-long WPA scores:
Rating WPA
Excellent +6.0
Great +3.0
Ab Avge +2.0
Average +1.0
Bel Avge 0.0
Poor -1.0
Awful -3.0
Pete Alonso had a 0.65 WPA last year. Juan Soto had a 5.98 WPA. Looking solely at hitting, the Mets made a 5-Win improvement to their offense. I'm pretty excited about the addition and don't worry much about the subtraction. Like, at all.
Brian - your reasoning is always sound and based in statistics and yes I can tend to be stuck on old metrics. No doubt Soto will be a huge boost to this team, but still worried about the gap they are leaving in power, since we know that no one but me likes to play small ball. Can’t argue with Pete’s stats as presented. Still hoping he is at first base when spring training starts.
Just for the record, I'm not opposed to Alonso being on the 2025 Mets. But definitely not for a term longer than 3 years and not at an AAV higher than what Stearns already offered. There's value to what Alonso can bring to the team. But, in my opinion, Stearns is already offering an above-market deal. He doesn't need to bid against himself.