I think he’s going to have a solid year, but not lights out. I think his innings will be down a bit for two reasons. 1. There are more, legit, high-leverage guys than in the past. 2. I think the Mets will have fewer save opportunities given the potency of the lineup. So:
60 IP. 2.20 ERA. 1.1 WHIP. 13.5 K/9. 1.1 HR/9. 28 saves. This is his Mets swan song. He opts out but regrets it when he can’t sign for a better deal. However, the Mets have no remorse because one of the younger arms emerges as a bona fide closer in the 2nd Half. Nunez? Megill? Tidwell? Butto?
In the past three years Diaz is 9th with FWAR at 4.1 but he missed a year for injury that could have moved him with a tie with Hader at FWAR 6.2. The 30-year-old Diaz is a premier closer and his salary reflects that. He is the second highest paid closer next to Hader. I too have lofty expectations this year with Diaz. Let the trumpets sound!
Last year was a solid year but not a spectacular year for Diaz. The group of crystal ball gazers had him better than he did. Steve_S won three categories (IP, K/9 and HR/9) while Brian won other two (ERA and WHIP). Steve_S was close when he predicted 14 K/9 and Diaz had 14.1. Brian won when he predicted the highest ERA at 2.45 because Diaz had a disappointing 3.52 ERA last year.
Relief pitchers stats can be not only difficult to predict but difficult to really interpret. They tend to be the smallest sample sizes of any player as well as the most volatile.
The 2024 version of Edwin Diaz was the poster child of this. In his 53 2/3 innings pitched he generated a 3.52 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP with a 1.17 HR/9. That was in 55 game appearances.
In his best 94.5% of his games (52 of 55, throwing out his worst 3, or about 5%) his ERA was 2.08 and his WHIP was 0.903 with a 0.69 HR/9.
With all that said, I predict his total body of work in 2025 will be closer to his best 95% last year:
I like Bill’s projection and only tinkered with it a bit 62IP 2.15 ERA 0.94 WHIP 10 K/9 .95 HR/9 and added in 32 saves. If he has a monster year and the Mets win, he will stay. If the Mets don’t get the title he will opt out because $18-20 million is simply not enough to feed a family these days. Looking for a monster opt out year unlike what Alonso had in 2024. David Stearns has modeled his pen as he did the starting rotation with hopefuls and reclamation projects. So much of their success will depend on scoring lots of runs which they are poised to do. Whoever wins the 8th inning spot will be a key to how often Diaz will hear the trumpets blare. If he gets to just be the 9th inning man and not be called on for five outs, this might just be his finest hour.
He is our closer, but I am not enamored with him. He is just too erratic and in really big situations, he gets wild. Very difficult to predict. I hope us great, but here we go. 13 k per 9, 1.21 Whip, 3.39 ERA.
Good year, but not his best. Won't opt out.
My predictions: 59 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 15.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
I think he’s going to have a solid year, but not lights out. I think his innings will be down a bit for two reasons. 1. There are more, legit, high-leverage guys than in the past. 2. I think the Mets will have fewer save opportunities given the potency of the lineup. So:
60 IP. 2.20 ERA. 1.1 WHIP. 13.5 K/9. 1.1 HR/9. 28 saves. This is his Mets swan song. He opts out but regrets it when he can’t sign for a better deal. However, the Mets have no remorse because one of the younger arms emerges as a bona fide closer in the 2nd Half. Nunez? Megill? Tidwell? Butto?
In the past three years Diaz is 9th with FWAR at 4.1 but he missed a year for injury that could have moved him with a tie with Hader at FWAR 6.2. The 30-year-old Diaz is a premier closer and his salary reflects that. He is the second highest paid closer next to Hader. I too have lofty expectations this year with Diaz. Let the trumpets sound!
IP 57, ERA 2.78, WHIP 0.975, K/9 15.1, HR/9 O.92
Last year was a solid year but not a spectacular year for Diaz. The group of crystal ball gazers had him better than he did. Steve_S won three categories (IP, K/9 and HR/9) while Brian won other two (ERA and WHIP). Steve_S was close when he predicted 14 K/9 and Diaz had 14.1. Brian won when he predicted the highest ERA at 2.45 because Diaz had a disappointing 3.52 ERA last year.
Thanks for the acknowledgment, Metsense! Steve_S is now Steve1962.
4.0 BB/9, 14.8 K/9, 0.92 WHIP, 1.72 ERA, 36 saves, 57 INN, 0.2 HR/9, and pitching for the Red Sox next year.
Relief pitchers stats can be not only difficult to predict but difficult to really interpret. They tend to be the smallest sample sizes of any player as well as the most volatile.
The 2024 version of Edwin Diaz was the poster child of this. In his 53 2/3 innings pitched he generated a 3.52 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP with a 1.17 HR/9. That was in 55 game appearances.
In his best 94.5% of his games (52 of 55, throwing out his worst 3, or about 5%) his ERA was 2.08 and his WHIP was 0.903 with a 0.69 HR/9.
With all that said, I predict his total body of work in 2025 will be closer to his best 95% last year:
60 IP 2.15 ERA 0.94 WHIP 13.5 K/9 0.72 HR/9
I like Bill’s projection and only tinkered with it a bit 62IP 2.15 ERA 0.94 WHIP 10 K/9 .95 HR/9 and added in 32 saves. If he has a monster year and the Mets win, he will stay. If the Mets don’t get the title he will opt out because $18-20 million is simply not enough to feed a family these days. Looking for a monster opt out year unlike what Alonso had in 2024. David Stearns has modeled his pen as he did the starting rotation with hopefuls and reclamation projects. So much of their success will depend on scoring lots of runs which they are poised to do. Whoever wins the 8th inning spot will be a key to how often Diaz will hear the trumpets blare. If he gets to just be the 9th inning man and not be called on for five outs, this might just be his finest hour.
He is our closer, but I am not enamored with him. He is just too erratic and in really big situations, he gets wild. Very difficult to predict. I hope us great, but here we go. 13 k per 9, 1.21 Whip, 3.39 ERA.