Seems that Canning is another potential low risk, medium to high reward, if the Mets and their pitching lab can guide him in the right direction. Other than that I have not liked anything about him being on the squad and despite is ability to give them innings, I don't see much upside. If the Mets can land one more strong bull pen piece, then Butto will get a chance to start. If they don't then he's going to have to serve that late innings get to Diaz role. While Tanner Scott will be expensive, why can't you have two guys who will play the closer role? Seems that all these pitchers struggle to go two days in a row and can't seem to toss more than an inning.
Goose Gossage must be laughing at how rand soft relief pitchers are since he pitched often and often pitched multiple innings. For a perspective on money, Gossage signed with the Yankees for $3.6 million over six years after becoming a free agent in 1977 and later signed a five-year, $9.95 million deal with the Padres in 1983, the largest contract awarded a relief pitcher at that point. Diaz makes more in one year than Gossage made in 11. It's almost criminal.
Canning was not on my radar screen but I was curious to see what the Mets saw in him such that they inked him. His stats in 2024 are not encouraging and looking at his peripherals via Baseball Savant, one can easily see why as they are below average almost across the board. However, in prior years, his peripherals were much better. This article from an Angels blog is definitely a lot more hopeful. As Steven says above, he’s a low risk, medium to high reward. I think worst case, he’s another Megill. Best case, he might approach Peterson. All this is predicated on his health, of course. My projections are pretty close to Brian’s except I think he’s going to eat more innings as a starter.
So rather than pull numbers out of a hat, I thought I'd take a look as some comps for where I think Canning might end up 2025. I didn't have to look much further than the 2024 Mets staff.
Tylor Megill in 2024:
0.5 bWAR
4-5 record
16 games
78.0 innings
4.04 ERA
1.308 WIP
That looks about right for a projection for the new guy. There are a couple categories that will be different - Megill had 15 starts in his 16 appearances. I see Canning more evenly split between starts and long relief. Canning will probably not have as many as the 91 strikeouts that Megill accumulated last year.
OTOH . . if he went to 'the lab', this may be one of Stearns's magic finds and he outperforms this projection. If they do in fact go to a full 6 man rotation for much of the year, I see him getting more innings (but not necessarily doing better than the 4.04 ERA or 1.3 WIP).
I am fairly confident that he will do better than Carlos Carrasco's -1.3 bWAR season of 2023.
Canning signing was a surprise because he didn't perform well last year, he has a spotty career numbers and he hasn't any options. He is a SP6 in competition with Blackburn and Megill and he was the third best of the trio. With Manaea and Montas injures he has moved up in pecking order with his good spring and he initially secured a rotation spot.
Seems that Canning is another potential low risk, medium to high reward, if the Mets and their pitching lab can guide him in the right direction. Other than that I have not liked anything about him being on the squad and despite is ability to give them innings, I don't see much upside. If the Mets can land one more strong bull pen piece, then Butto will get a chance to start. If they don't then he's going to have to serve that late innings get to Diaz role. While Tanner Scott will be expensive, why can't you have two guys who will play the closer role? Seems that all these pitchers struggle to go two days in a row and can't seem to toss more than an inning.
Goose Gossage must be laughing at how rand soft relief pitchers are since he pitched often and often pitched multiple innings. For a perspective on money, Gossage signed with the Yankees for $3.6 million over six years after becoming a free agent in 1977 and later signed a five-year, $9.95 million deal with the Padres in 1983, the largest contract awarded a relief pitcher at that point. Diaz makes more in one year than Gossage made in 11. It's almost criminal.
Canning was not on my radar screen but I was curious to see what the Mets saw in him such that they inked him. His stats in 2024 are not encouraging and looking at his peripherals via Baseball Savant, one can easily see why as they are below average almost across the board. However, in prior years, his peripherals were much better. This article from an Angels blog is definitely a lot more hopeful. As Steven says above, he’s a low risk, medium to high reward. I think worst case, he’s another Megill. Best case, he might approach Peterson. All this is predicated on his health, of course. My projections are pretty close to Brian’s except I think he’s going to eat more innings as a starter.
Hit return too fast. Here are my projections: 120 IP. 4.30 ERA. 1.3 WHIP. 9K/9 IP, 1.3 HR/9 IP. Here’s the link to the Angels blog in case anyone is interested. Apparently he won a Gold Glove in 2020! https://halohangout.com/posts/injury-prone-angels-starter-soaring-to-new-heights-01j71pa5qza1#:~:text=Canning%20struggled%20on%20the%20mound,a%20lower%20back%20stress%20fracture.
The Lab helps a bit:
90 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
Canning will be getting spot starts, long relief, and mop up duty. Even that may be too big a portfolio.
IP < 100
WHIP > 1.3
ERA > 4
So rather than pull numbers out of a hat, I thought I'd take a look as some comps for where I think Canning might end up 2025. I didn't have to look much further than the 2024 Mets staff.
Tylor Megill in 2024:
0.5 bWAR
4-5 record
16 games
78.0 innings
4.04 ERA
1.308 WIP
That looks about right for a projection for the new guy. There are a couple categories that will be different - Megill had 15 starts in his 16 appearances. I see Canning more evenly split between starts and long relief. Canning will probably not have as many as the 91 strikeouts that Megill accumulated last year.
OTOH . . if he went to 'the lab', this may be one of Stearns's magic finds and he outperforms this projection. If they do in fact go to a full 6 man rotation for much of the year, I see him getting more innings (but not necessarily doing better than the 4.04 ERA or 1.3 WIP).
I am fairly confident that he will do better than Carlos Carrasco's -1.3 bWAR season of 2023.
Canning signing was a surprise because he didn't perform well last year, he has a spotty career numbers and he hasn't any options. He is a SP6 in competition with Blackburn and Megill and he was the third best of the trio. With Manaea and Montas injures he has moved up in pecking order with his good spring and he initially secured a rotation spot.
85 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.344 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9