Mets 2025 projections: Kodai Senga

With almost every player there’s an issue or two that makes it tough to project what they might do in a season. With Kodai Senga, it’s the uncertainty of his health status. This is always true for any pitcher but it seems heightened with Senga given that he’s not rehabbing in this country. Jeremy Hefner visited him in Japan so the Mets have at least some intel. All the rest of us can do is wonder, at least until we see him throw here.

The projection models have no such concern. They just focus on what he’s done. And what Senga has done is be really good over 29 starts in 2023 and pretty good in his lone start of 2024. Here’s what the various models expect from Senga this year:

ATC – 151 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.99 K/9, 1.06 HR/9
Marcel – 79 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
OOPSY – 162 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.91 K/9, 0.98 HR/9
Steamer – 162 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.78 K/9, 1.08 HR/9
THE BAT – 150 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.76 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
ZiPS – 138.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.70 K/9, 0.98 HR/9

There’s not as much variability here as what I expected. But maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, because the models were very similar in what they expected when Senga first came to this country. It’s hard not to notice that ZiPS, OOPSY and Marcel have nearly identical ERA forecasts, then a little jump to ATC and Steamer and then another little jump to THE BAT.

Obviously, Marcel dings Senga substantially for his lack of innings in 2024. ZiPS is fairly bearish on his innings and the rest see him as likely to post what passes for a full innings’ worth for a starter here in the mid-2020s. The Mets’ plan to use a six-man rotation limits what Senga – or any of the pitchers – can contribute. It certainly was the right thing to do in 2023, as Senga’s results on five or more days of rest were substantially better than what he did in his handful of outings on normal rest.

Senga signed a five-year deal that included two clauses that could impact how much control the Mets had with him. First, Senga could opt out of the deal if he amassed 400 innings over his first three years. If Senga had repeated his debut season with the Mets in 2024, he certainly would have exercised this clause. But he has just 171.2 IP in his first two years and will not get the chance to reach 400 innings by the end of this season.

The other clause was one that potentially benefited the Mets. If Senga had Tommy John surgery or any elbow injury that caused him to be on the IL for more than 130 consecutive days, they would receive a club option for 2028. But Senga missed time last year with a shoulder injury and then went back on the IL with a calf injury, so neither of those will trigger the club option.

But after getting next to nothing from Senga in 2024, the Mets are far more interested in him providing the results he did in 2023 than finagling an extra year of control. A healthy and productive Senga makes everything easier for the Mets to return to the playoffs in 2025. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Senga this season:

162 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 0.94 HR/9

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Senga will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.