I will pessimistically throw my lot in with Marcel, but with a lower k/9 rate. I think Senga benefitted from his Ghost Fork being such an anomaly with no MLB data on it that guys couldn't spit on it in '23. He showed in '24 that in his few starts, when he doesn't have a feel for the fork, guys can get a read on him with no problem. We should recall him bouncing the fork way in front of the plate in his start against the Dodgers, and it was painful to watch. I am maybe alone in my feelings that Senga is not going to be as solid as everyone thinks he will be. Maybe I'm just a pessimist, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I think he'll be plagued by nagging injuries and as a result, lose his touch on the ghost fork and get lit up on too many occasions.
130 IP. 2.75 ERA. 1.15 WHIP. 10.5K/9. 0.9HR/9. I think Senga pitches about as well as he did in H2, 2023. Just as MLB was going school on him, he was learning the league, the routine, and adjusting to a new ball. He improved for the most part as the season went on and I think that will stick.
So if the season is 162 games long and they go with a 6 man rotation, each starter gets 27 starts. If each starter throws 6 innings in each of their 27 starts they pitch 162 innings. Isn't math great?
I will assume Senga is healthy and will make all of his starts and average 6 innings, so, like Brian, I will call it 162 IP.
162 IP, 3.20 ERA 1.15 WHIP 8.8K/9 0.88 HR/9
That should be good enough to have a 14-9 season. Senga's shoulder was healed enough for him to make his start in August, so I am reasonably hopeful that it is not a longer term problem. As far as we know, he hasn't had elbow issues since coming to the Mets. AgingBull is spot on about his 2023 second half. I think he'll get back to that level and throw between 90 and 110 pitches per start - which will get him 6 innings most starts.
Senga is the most important variable to the Mets success. His health is least known from all pitchers and keeping up with Manaea at the front of the rotation gives the Mets a chance to compete with the Phillies stout rotation.
I believe Senga will be babied a bit and held back to have more in the tank for playoff games. Hence:
23 starts, 136 innings, 10 K/9, 2.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and throws a no hitter.
We already know that he needs an extra day of rest which will limit his innings. I am optimistic that he will be back in form to his rookie year with the Mets and help anchor the staff. Otherwise, he will end up being as disappointing a transaction as the Mets have made in a very long time. Scary shades of Matt Harvey, who looked like the next Tom Seaver before becoming an injured non-contributor. They desperately need a strong season from Senga.
Senga was 9th in ERA, 13th in K/9, 23th in HR/9 and 20th in fWAR in MLB for starting pitchers than pitched more than 70 innings, (150 MLB starting pitchers) in the 2023 season. That is a nice resume. He is the ace of the New York Mets. He was missed sorely last season. He is older and further away from his prime years. I think he will again be the ace of the staff and have another excellent year.
I will pessimistically throw my lot in with Marcel, but with a lower k/9 rate. I think Senga benefitted from his Ghost Fork being such an anomaly with no MLB data on it that guys couldn't spit on it in '23. He showed in '24 that in his few starts, when he doesn't have a feel for the fork, guys can get a read on him with no problem. We should recall him bouncing the fork way in front of the plate in his start against the Dodgers, and it was painful to watch. I am maybe alone in my feelings that Senga is not going to be as solid as everyone thinks he will be. Maybe I'm just a pessimist, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I think he'll be plagued by nagging injuries and as a result, lose his touch on the ghost fork and get lit up on too many occasions.
Watch out! Here comes the ghost!
152 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
Starts < 25
IP <125
ERA >3.2
WHIP >1.25
K/9 < 7
130 IP. 2.75 ERA. 1.15 WHIP. 10.5K/9. 0.9HR/9. I think Senga pitches about as well as he did in H2, 2023. Just as MLB was going school on him, he was learning the league, the routine, and adjusting to a new ball. He improved for the most part as the season went on and I think that will stick.
If anyone other than Marcel is right about his innings, it should be a good year for the Mets.
So if the season is 162 games long and they go with a 6 man rotation, each starter gets 27 starts. If each starter throws 6 innings in each of their 27 starts they pitch 162 innings. Isn't math great?
I will assume Senga is healthy and will make all of his starts and average 6 innings, so, like Brian, I will call it 162 IP.
162 IP, 3.20 ERA 1.15 WHIP 8.8K/9 0.88 HR/9
That should be good enough to have a 14-9 season. Senga's shoulder was healed enough for him to make his start in August, so I am reasonably hopeful that it is not a longer term problem. As far as we know, he hasn't had elbow issues since coming to the Mets. AgingBull is spot on about his 2023 second half. I think he'll get back to that level and throw between 90 and 110 pitches per start - which will get him 6 innings most starts.
Senga is the most important variable to the Mets success. His health is least known from all pitchers and keeping up with Manaea at the front of the rotation gives the Mets a chance to compete with the Phillies stout rotation.
I believe Senga will be babied a bit and held back to have more in the tank for playoff games. Hence:
23 starts, 136 innings, 10 K/9, 2.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and throws a no hitter.
140 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
We already know that he needs an extra day of rest which will limit his innings. I am optimistic that he will be back in form to his rookie year with the Mets and help anchor the staff. Otherwise, he will end up being as disappointing a transaction as the Mets have made in a very long time. Scary shades of Matt Harvey, who looked like the next Tom Seaver before becoming an injured non-contributor. They desperately need a strong season from Senga.
Senga was 9th in ERA, 13th in K/9, 23th in HR/9 and 20th in fWAR in MLB for starting pitchers than pitched more than 70 innings, (150 MLB starting pitchers) in the 2023 season. That is a nice resume. He is the ace of the New York Mets. He was missed sorely last season. He is older and further away from his prime years. I think he will again be the ace of the staff and have another excellent year.
IP 166, ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.241, 10.9 K/9, 0.92 HR/9