Mets 2025 projections: Luisangel Acuna
Today we kick off our annual projection series, the 13th year we’ve done this at the site. And one thing just hit me and that’s how the first person to be featured in the series went on to have a less-than stellar season. Everyone knows about the Sports Illustrated jinx and the Madden curse. Well, those two need to make some room for the 360 hex. Don’t believe me? Here are the players who’ve kicked off our projection series the last five years:
2024: Kodai Senga – injuries limited him to just one game in the regular season
2023: Justin Verlander – made just 16 starts before being traded
2022: Max Scherzer – just 23 starts and then allowed 7 ER in 4.2 IP in the playoffs
2021: Jeff McNeil – had a worse fWAR (1.1) than he did in 52 games in 2020 (1.4)
2020: Pete Alonso – started in a terrible funk and didn’t have a full season to compensate
So, knowing this, what’s the best way to proceed? My immediate reaction was to pick a player from whom not much is expected. The first thought was Starling Marte but who knows what his role will be or if he’ll even be on the team? Next was Luis Torrens but generally we don’t do a forecast for the backup catcher. And then it hit me to do Luisangel Acuña.
Let’s start with what the computer models think. The ZiPS forecasts for the 2025 Mets were recently released but not all of the forecasts have been published. We’ll use what we have and add the rest whenever they’re available.
Steamer – 241 PA, .249/.295/.364, 4 HR
ZiPS – 593 PA, .244/.289/.340, 8 HR
We all have blind spots and biases. Often, it’s easier to spot these with other people than it is to identify your own. That being said, it’s amazing to me how otherwise smart people are massively tripping over themselves to fellate Acuna, based on, well, not really much at all. They want so much to believe that he’s going to be a star that anything remotely positive is praised to the hilltops while prolonged periods of ineptitude are conveniently – and quickly – ignored.
Remember how SNY went gaga over Acuna’s eight-game hitting streak last year, the one where he had a .618 OPS because it was mostly 1-5 nights, with the hit being a single? Or how about when a different SNY contributor got all wet when Acuna put up a .761 OPS, calling it, “tremendous,” despite the fact that the entire Syracuse team had a .797 OPS at the time?
So, this was the type of admiration people (and team-funded sites) had for Acuna. And he ended up with a .654 OPS and a 69 wRC+ for Syracuse in 587 PA. Outside of his stolen bases, there was nothing to recommend him from an offensive point of view.
And then came a promotion and terrific, unsustainable production over a very tiny sample size.
In 40 PA in the majors, Acuna had a .308/.325/.641 line. Without a doubt, he picked the right week to start sniffing glue. His slugging in the majors was almost as good as his OPS in Triple-A, which should set off major alarm bells. After posting a .097 ISO in Syracuse, Acuna notched a .333 ISO in the majors. This 40-PA sample had more than a few people advocating trading McNeil to open up second base for Acuna.
Yet the thing is, that even in these 40 PA – we already saw regression kicking in. Over his first 33 ABs, Acuna had a .375/.394/.781 line. And he followed that up by closing the season 0-7. And then in the playoffs, Acuna went 0-3 with 2 Ks.
We saw the computer models give Acuna an OPS that would fit right in on Kevin Plawecki’s baseball card. And it’s entirely possible that they are being far too kind, given what he produced in Triple-A last year. Typically, a forecast has a lower OPS in the majors than in the minors. Regardless, here’s my forecast for Acuna:
MLB: 75 PA, .240/.275/.320, 1 HR
AAA: 560 PA, .265/.310/.360, 8 HR
One of my pet peeves is when people, without a shred of proof, claim that they “just knew” someone was going to be good or bad after all of the evidence is in. Here’s your chance to get your forecast in early, so you can brag how you predicted it – and have the receipts, too. Please chime in with what you think Acuna will do in 2025.
It’s all such a crap shoot and many players seem to fluctuate versus being consistent from year to year. Acuna had a great but not sustainable start but his role covering for Lindor was vital. Since you can’t have an all star at every position, if Acuna gave us an all star DP combination with Lindor, then they could bat him 9th and get what they get. While McNeil is no slouch, he’s not quite an all star fielder at a 2B. But of course when his bat is right, he can be a vital to this teams offense.
I believe Acuna will get 250 ABs, bat .260 and check 13 HR with the big club since Mauricio does not appear to be ready to play yet and won’t block him.
So, to be fair, I based my belief that Jacob deGrom was going to be better than Rafael Montero based mostly on gut. There was raw stuff to go along with my gut as deGrom just threw harder and seemed to generate more Ks but sometimes the gut says what it says.
My gut also really liked Vicente Lupo and a certain catcher I'm banned from bringing up.
The Steamer and ZIPs models are both around the better slash lines that I could see Luisangel Acuna managing but a ton depends on Spring Training. Let us face that he did have a strong performance in the majors last year and that he did have a really strong performance in the winter league. Do you change your projections if he carries through the performance from Winter ball into training camp?