So, to be fair, I based my belief that Jacob deGrom was going to be better than Rafael Montero based mostly on gut. There was raw stuff to go along with my gut as deGrom just threw harder and seemed to generate more Ks but sometimes the gut says what it says.
My gut also really liked Vicente Lupo and a certain catcher I'm banned from bringing up.
The Steamer and ZIPs models are both around the better slash lines that I could see Luisangel Acuna managing but a ton depends on Spring Training. Let us face that he did have a strong performance in the majors last year and that he did have a really strong performance in the winter league. Do you change your projections if he carries through the performance from Winter ball into training camp?
We're told over and over again that Spring Training stats are meaningless. Yet, people want to make decisions on them. Shoot, I'm not free of guilt in this department. But what's the best-case scenario for PA for anyone in Spring Training? It's certainly fewer than 100 PA. Probably closer to 60. And that's best-case. If I wasn't swayed by 40 PA in September, why should I be giddy over 50 in Grapefruit League play?
An argument could be made that if his Spring Training is strong that he's riding a pretty sustained period of better play but I understand your hesitance. I think I would start to drink Kool Aid if he managed his Winter League stats in his Spring Training games. It would also shorten the leash on Jeff McNeil if the Flying Spuirrel gets off to a slow start.
It’s all such a crap shoot and many players seem to fluctuate versus being consistent from year to year. Acuna had a great but not sustainable start but his role covering for Lindor was vital. Since you can’t have an all star at every position, if Acuna gave us an all star DP combination with Lindor, then they could bat him 9th and get what they get. While McNeil is no slouch, he’s not quite an all star fielder at a 2B. But of course when his bat is right, he can be a vital to this teams offense.
I believe Acuna will get 250 ABs, bat .260 and check 13 HR with the big club since Mauricio does not appear to be ready to play yet and won’t block him.
I have been thinking about Luisangel Acuna for some time and wondering what his role and ultimately his ceiling is at the major league level. And it still isn't clear in my mind.
I am more bullish on Acuna than Brian is, but in some way, his 2025 projection depends more on what another prospect does in spring training than what he does. It seems that the prospects of Acuna and Mauricio are intertwined. If Mauricio comes back and shows he is 100% healthy and has a good spring, Acuna is more likely to start in Syracuse and play a limited role in New York in 2025. If Mauricio needs time to dust off the rust, Acuna could very well start the year in Queens, although I have never been a big fan of having the young guys being bench players.
So, my best guess on 2025: 200 PA, .265 batting average, 4 home runs, 22 rbi.
I don't believe he will work his way into a long term starting role this year. He may start as an injury fill-in for 2 or 3 weeks at a time.
Looking past 2025, it is difficult to see him being a long-term answer for the Mets at any position.
Long time reader, first time predictor. I will go with this for Acuna. 250/300/350/650. 250 ABs, 55 HRs, 20 SBs. I think there’s a 50/50 chance he gets traded before the season starts as the Mets try to land another slugger after Alonso holds out til June.
Just for fun, I asked Copilot for Acuna predictions. 475 ABs, 260/310/400/710 with 5 HRs and 18 SBs. I just noticed that I predicted 55 dingers above. LOL. I fat-fingered that; I meant 5.
You picked a tough one to project. At this point of the off season the Mets don't know who is the first baseman, third baseman and the other bench player to supplement Marte at the DH. If they fill first base or third base then Acuna have a position to start at. He also is a RHB so with the DH position wouldn't supplement the right-handed Marte. Baty or Mauricio bats left handed so they would be more ideal at the DH then Acuna. Even if the Mets don't sign a first baseman or second
Continue: third baseman I think Baty or Mauricio is ahead of him. I see Acuna in Syracuse and fighting his way to the Major Leagues fending off Gilbert or Williams for the next promotion. The winter league has got me hope that he is a major leader but he needs more success at AAA. I think the Mets are more bullish than I am.
ZiPS predicting a full season from Acuna is wild. I can barely envision a season in which he reaches 250 PAs that doesn't involve multiple injuries to the starting infielders.
And as we review his unfortunate degree of excitement from last year we can't forget how he was left on the NLCS roster as a pinch runner over a much needed relief pitcher.
I can't remember Dan's exact quote on how ZiPS determines playing time but it's not on playing time available - which would be a massive undertaking for every player in MLB - but rather on how much playing time a guy's projected numbers would merit given his position.
Even with that caveat, it still seems like too many PA for a guy with a projected .629 OPS.
I don’t expect Acuna to be on the Mets in 2025 either. Stearns is famous for trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late (i.e.: Keon Bruxton). If he is on the Mets, he would be so far down the depth chart, that it isn’t worth keeping him. We already have been told Baty was ahead of him in September, but he got hurt and Mauricio coming back will also leapfrog Acuna. I love Brian’s suggestion of McNeil going to first base if need be, but if not, that’s three guys ahead of LuisAngel. If he starts the year in Syracuse and looks great, you can trade him.
Acuna is an electric player in the mold of José Siri, and possibly not as good but certainly younger so more upside. How many Siri’s can a team have? My prediction is zero at bats for LuisAngel Acuna for the Mets in 2025, or too few to consider.
So, to be fair, I based my belief that Jacob deGrom was going to be better than Rafael Montero based mostly on gut. There was raw stuff to go along with my gut as deGrom just threw harder and seemed to generate more Ks but sometimes the gut says what it says.
My gut also really liked Vicente Lupo and a certain catcher I'm banned from bringing up.
The Steamer and ZIPs models are both around the better slash lines that I could see Luisangel Acuna managing but a ton depends on Spring Training. Let us face that he did have a strong performance in the majors last year and that he did have a really strong performance in the winter league. Do you change your projections if he carries through the performance from Winter ball into training camp?
No I don't.
We're told over and over again that Spring Training stats are meaningless. Yet, people want to make decisions on them. Shoot, I'm not free of guilt in this department. But what's the best-case scenario for PA for anyone in Spring Training? It's certainly fewer than 100 PA. Probably closer to 60. And that's best-case. If I wasn't swayed by 40 PA in September, why should I be giddy over 50 in Grapefruit League play?
An argument could be made that if his Spring Training is strong that he's riding a pretty sustained period of better play but I understand your hesitance. I think I would start to drink Kool Aid if he managed his Winter League stats in his Spring Training games. It would also shorten the leash on Jeff McNeil if the Flying Spuirrel gets off to a slow start.
MLB: 225 PA, .240/.295/.350, 6 HR, 15 SB
I'd like to see how well we all did in last year's projections and predictions.
https://mets360.substack.com/t/projections
It’s all such a crap shoot and many players seem to fluctuate versus being consistent from year to year. Acuna had a great but not sustainable start but his role covering for Lindor was vital. Since you can’t have an all star at every position, if Acuna gave us an all star DP combination with Lindor, then they could bat him 9th and get what they get. While McNeil is no slouch, he’s not quite an all star fielder at a 2B. But of course when his bat is right, he can be a vital to this teams offense.
I believe Acuna will get 250 ABs, bat .260 and check 13 HR with the big club since Mauricio does not appear to be ready to play yet and won’t block him.
I have been thinking about Luisangel Acuna for some time and wondering what his role and ultimately his ceiling is at the major league level. And it still isn't clear in my mind.
I am more bullish on Acuna than Brian is, but in some way, his 2025 projection depends more on what another prospect does in spring training than what he does. It seems that the prospects of Acuna and Mauricio are intertwined. If Mauricio comes back and shows he is 100% healthy and has a good spring, Acuna is more likely to start in Syracuse and play a limited role in New York in 2025. If Mauricio needs time to dust off the rust, Acuna could very well start the year in Queens, although I have never been a big fan of having the young guys being bench players.
So, my best guess on 2025: 200 PA, .265 batting average, 4 home runs, 22 rbi.
I don't believe he will work his way into a long term starting role this year. He may start as an injury fill-in for 2 or 3 weeks at a time.
Looking past 2025, it is difficult to see him being a long-term answer for the Mets at any position.
Long time reader, first time predictor. I will go with this for Acuna. 250/300/350/650. 250 ABs, 55 HRs, 20 SBs. I think there’s a 50/50 chance he gets traded before the season starts as the Mets try to land another slugger after Alonso holds out til June.
Just for fun, I asked Copilot for Acuna predictions. 475 ABs, 260/310/400/710 with 5 HRs and 18 SBs. I just noticed that I predicted 55 dingers above. LOL. I fat-fingered that; I meant 5.
You picked a tough one to project. At this point of the off season the Mets don't know who is the first baseman, third baseman and the other bench player to supplement Marte at the DH. If they fill first base or third base then Acuna have a position to start at. He also is a RHB so with the DH position wouldn't supplement the right-handed Marte. Baty or Mauricio bats left handed so they would be more ideal at the DH then Acuna. Even if the Mets don't sign a first baseman or second
Continue: third baseman I think Baty or Mauricio is ahead of him. I see Acuna in Syracuse and fighting his way to the Major Leagues fending off Gilbert or Williams for the next promotion. The winter league has got me hope that he is a major leader but he needs more success at AAA. I think the Mets are more bullish than I am.
78 PA 255 /300/350, 2HR
ZiPS predicting a full season from Acuna is wild. I can barely envision a season in which he reaches 250 PAs that doesn't involve multiple injuries to the starting infielders.
And as we review his unfortunate degree of excitement from last year we can't forget how he was left on the NLCS roster as a pinch runner over a much needed relief pitcher.
I can't remember Dan's exact quote on how ZiPS determines playing time but it's not on playing time available - which would be a massive undertaking for every player in MLB - but rather on how much playing time a guy's projected numbers would merit given his position.
Even with that caveat, it still seems like too many PA for a guy with a projected .629 OPS.
I see. So they don't consider the overall roster of the team on which he plays when making that projection. That does make sense though.
I don’t expect Acuna to be on the Mets in 2025 either. Stearns is famous for trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late (i.e.: Keon Bruxton). If he is on the Mets, he would be so far down the depth chart, that it isn’t worth keeping him. We already have been told Baty was ahead of him in September, but he got hurt and Mauricio coming back will also leapfrog Acuna. I love Brian’s suggestion of McNeil going to first base if need be, but if not, that’s three guys ahead of LuisAngel. If he starts the year in Syracuse and looks great, you can trade him.
Acuna is an electric player in the mold of José Siri, and possibly not as good but certainly younger so more upside. How many Siri’s can a team have? My prediction is zero at bats for LuisAngel Acuna for the Mets in 2025, or too few to consider.