Mets 2025 projections: Pete Alonso

Hopefully following your favorite sports teams brings you joy. And that joy can take on many forms, whether from team success or individual success or even watching spirited competition. It seems fair to say that the recent re-signing of Pete Alonso brought a lot of joy to a lot of people. It seems accurate to me to say that we can use some joy in our lives right about now.

Now that we’ve all enjoyed our Kumbaya moment, let’s turn our attention to what Alonso might produce in 2025. Before we get to that, let’s take a trip back to this time last year and the Alonso projections for 2024. After a strong year in 2022, Alonso saw his wRC+ drop 20 points in 2023 and his fWAR go from 3.8 to 2.8, a substantial drop for a player in his prime. And with that as our backdrop, here’s what the computer models predicted for Alonso in 2024:

ATC -– 651 PA, .249/.339/.523, 42 HR
Marcel – 598 PA, .250/.337/.509, 36 HR
Steamer – 648 PA, .250/.340/.515, 41 HR
ZiPS – 636 PA, .242/.336/.475, 34 HR

And we saw Alonso post a .240/.329/.459 line last year. That .788 OPS was 23 points below what ZiPS projected, which was by far the most pessimistic forecast of our four systems.

Now that we have back-to-back disappointing years for Alonso, here’s how the projection models view things:

ATC – 617 PA, .242/.331/.476, 33 HR
Marcel – 613 PA, .241/.328/.479, 34 HR
OOPSY – 665 PA, .248/.334/.496, 38 HR
Steamer – 657 PA, .238/.330/.473, 36 HR
THE BAT – 617 PA, .247/.334/.485, 34 HR
ZiPS – 649 PA, .244/.337/.470, 33 HR

Gotta say – these projections surprise me. All six of them see Alonso bouncing back from what he produced last year. After posting a 2.1 fWAR in 2024, all five of the projection models on FanGraphs see him bettering that mark in 2025, with totals between 2.5 and 3.3 fWAR, with ATC and Steamer tying for the lowest mark and OOPSY seeing the most-favorable results.

And these forecasts all see an OBP right around what he did in 2024, meaning they see the improvement coming with his SLG. And that makes sense, as Alonso dropped from 46 HR in 2023 to 34 HR in 2024. But the models all have him hitting fewer than 40 homers in 2025. Five of our six systems see Alonso within two homers of his 2024 production, with OOPSY’s forecast of 38 HR being the most aggressive. So, with his AVG and HR relatively stable, the models must be seeing an increase in doubles. Nope Alonso hit 31 doubles last year and none of the computer projections are higher than 27.

So, how the heck is Alonso going to produce a higher SLG with these numbers?

Last year, Alonso played in all 162 games and had 695 PA. The models think he’s going to play fewer games and be more productive. All six systems see him having at least 30 fewer PA this year, with ATC and THE BAT forecasting 78 fewer PA and Marcel checks in with Alonso receiving 82 fewer PA. Can more rest lead to more production? Sure, that’s a possibility. Yet Alonso has never had fewer than 637 PA in a non-Covid season.

The models aren’t humans – they don’t have human reasons for their forecasts. It’s not like ATC thinks he’s going to go on the IL or that ZiPS thinks Carlos Mendoza is going to give him 15 days off this year after playing him 162 games a season ago.

One of the ideas behind doing projections was to see if we could add human knowledge and improve upon the non-biased computer models. And the human input is the knowledge that Alonso plays 152 or more games every year. No human should predict Alonso to have 617 or 613 PA, unless they think he’s going to get hurt.

And if they think an injury is on the horizon, they probably shouldn’t be bullish on his season-long numbers, as most players have either a down stretch where they tried to play thru the injury or an adjustment period when they return to action. Sometimes they have both. It’s the exception for a guy to be playing great up until the time he goes on the IL and then immediately returns to that same level.

Last year, my projection for Alonso was a rebound from his disappointing 2023. This was my guess for his production in 2024 -- 625 PA, .245/.340/.520, 44 HR. It would be super if Alonso could produce those numbers in 2025. Maybe not worrying about his contract status and batting in a lineup with Juan Soto in it will help spur Alonso to those heights. I would be thrilled if he hit 44 HR and had a .275 ISO. It just doesn’t seem likely to me to happen. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Alonso this year:

665 PA, .242/.331/.465, 35 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Alonso will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.