Mets 2025 projections: The final batch
This annual projection series means something to me. Not only is it a chance to write about all of the major players, it gives everyone a chance to weigh in on what they think the player will do in the upcoming season. Because with every fiber of my being, I hate people who say they “just knew” a player was going to be great/stink after the fact. Here is the chance for all of us to say what we “just knew” six months early. It’s a chance to be a real genius, instead of a pretend one.
There are multiple people who should get a prediction of some sort before the season starts. Because of that, these will be bare-bones types of forecasts, especially compared to the 15 done previously this year.
Francisco Alvarez – If the original six-to-eight week return forecast is accurate, Alvarez should get more playing time than last year, when he missed two months. Two weeks of the time he’ll miss this year will have occurred before the season starts. Still, the hamate bone injury is a concern, as that’s known for sapping power. Let’s put him down for: 383 PA, .245/.320/.395, 9 HR
Brett Baty – The injury to Jeff McNeil, combined with Baty’s excellent Grapefruit League campaign, means more playing time than just about anyone expected at before Spring Training. But how much? Will he stay on the roster once McNeil returns? Will he be just a reserve or will he cut into someone else’s playing time? Let’s go with: 275 PA, .253/.341/.390, 11 HR
Paul Blackburn – Of the three candidates to claim the two rotation spots opened up by injuries, Blackburn has had the worst Grapefruit League results. Still, he’s expected to open the year in pen and move to the rotation once they need a sixth starter. But will they need that sixth starter before Sean Manaea returns? And if not, will Blackburn pitch well enough as a reliever to keep his job? Let’s say 20 IP, 5.85 ERA, 1.566 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
Starling Marte – Right now, Marte’s role is short side of a platoon and an occasional outfield start. But is he even the second option for those starts? He’s got a great arm but everything else defensively is a question mark. Marte could get traded five minutes after this gets posted. But it’s not outlandish to think he could spend the entire year in Queens. The crystal ball sees: 180 PA, .295/.356/.437, 6 HR
Luis Torrens – After a hot start when he first came over, Torrens had a .132/.207/.170 line in his final 58 PA. Maybe more consistent playing time will help those numbers early on while Alvarez is shelved. They’d almost have to give him a boost compared to that line that can most charitably be called sub-Plaweckian. Multiple coin flips show this: 155 PA, .230/.290/.356, 6 HR
Jesse Winker – His OPS was 110 points lower as a Met compared to what he did with the Nationals in 2024. If Winker repeats his production with the Mets, he’ll lose playing time to someone. But Winker was very productive in the playoffs and won’t have to adjust to a new team and a new role midseason this go-round. Karnac forecasts: 375 PA, .258/.366/.443, 14 HR
My opinion is that, for the most part, the bullpen is going to be a strength. Let’s do some IP/ERA forecasts for some pen guys:
Jose Butto - 70 IP, 2.95 ERA
Reed Garrett - 61 IP, 3.25 ERA
Max Kranick – 50 IP, 3.96 ERA
A.J. Minter – 60 IP, 3.46 ERA
Dedniel Nunez – 45 IP, 2.22 ERA
Ryne Stanek – 35 IP, 4.88 ERA
Danny Young – 27 IP, 4.67 ERA
Hitters:
Francisco Alvarez AB: 300 BA: .240 OBP: .289 Slg: .340 HR: 14
Luis Torrens AB: 175 BA: .208 OBP: .259 Slg: .308 HR: 7
Brett Baty AB: 510 BA: .272 OBP: .365 Slg: .528 HR: 24
Starling Marte AB: 250 BA: .276 OBP: .330 Slg: .440 HR: 11
Jesse Winker AB: 350 BA: .247 OBP: .315 Slg: .450 HR: 18
Pitchers:
Paul Blackburn 100 IP ERA: 4.40 WHIP: 1.59 K/9: 8.1 HR/9: 1.4
Jose Butto 72 IP ERA: 2.71 WHIP: 1.26 K/9: 12.1 HR/9: 0.7
Reed Garrett 63 IP ERA: 2.45 WHIP: 1.22 K/9: 12.5 HR/9: 0.8
Max Kranick 80 IP ERA: 3.07 WHIP: 1.13 K/9: 8.9 HR/9: 1.0
A.J. Minter 50 IP ERA: 4.10 WHIP: 1.30 K/9: 10.9 HR/9: 1.5
Dedniel Nunez 55 IP ERA: 3.52 WHIP: 1.35 K/9: 11.1 HR/9: 1.1
Ryne Stanek 67 IP ERA: 2.25 WHIP: 1.08 K/9: 11.2 HR/9: 0.8
Danny Young 44 IP ERA: 3.24 WHIP: 1.21 K/9: 7.9 HR/9: 0.9
Alvarez: 434 PA, 240/312/446/768, 20 HR. He will take another step in his offensive Improvement.
Batty: 340 PA, 244/325/428/753, 12 HR. He will take at bats from Winker/Marte
Blackburn: 30 IP, 4.85 ERA. He will only pitch in junk innings.
Marte: 253 PA, 270/326/392/718. He will be a serviceable RHB DH.
Torrens: 210 PA, 233/292/350/642, 4 HR. He's better than Nido.
Winker: 273 PA, 232/348/350/699, 7 HR. He will be a disappointment.