All fair and reasonable projections Brian. One question, do you see Holmes logging innings in relief? I cant help but think that is coming.
Id be surprised (but not necessarily shocked) if at this stage of ST if the Mets find Marte a new home - unless of course they eat almost all of the contract, which I dont see happening.
It seems very unlikely to me that Holmes will start every sixth game. So, the question is if he'll spend time on the IL or will they skip starts? And if they skip starts, will they have him pitch out of the pen to keep sharp? The 6-man rotation and how they'll implement it is a great unknown.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Holmes pitched some as a reliever. But I wouldn't wager on it.
Thats funny Bob, I just read this and said 20 for Baty as well. Id rather have Baty in there rather than McNeil. He is younger, has more power and if he hits .250 we have got a new second baseman.
I also concur with most of the projections put forth. Saddened by the prospect of Alvarez not being a stronger bat since he has so much potential. Can live with what you suggested as long as he gets back behind the plate and takes charge like last year. Marte will be gone sooner than later one way or the other. If he is not healthy but not injured then they can't afford to waste the roster spot. If he stays healthy and can hit and run a bit in his DH role, then I see them moving him somewhere along with $10 million, the hitting poor Mariners might just take him and a few strong prospects for Castillo. Would still like one more proven arm on that starting staff.
At least I gave up thoughts of swapping bad contracts for Jordan Montgomery. So much promise and poof TJ surgery. And Castillo is not even their best arm. I think it’s more the thought of a proven commodity versus “let’s hope this works out.” I’m officially giving him up!
And yet I have predicted that his ERA 4.48 will be better the Canning's 4.90 or Blackburn's 4.85 ! If fact, I'll predict that he will be better the Montas. I'll predict a 4.58 ERA for Montas with 72 IP.
All fair and reasonable projections Brian. One question, do you see Holmes logging innings in relief? I cant help but think that is coming.
Id be surprised (but not necessarily shocked) if at this stage of ST if the Mets find Marte a new home - unless of course they eat almost all of the contract, which I dont see happening.
It seems very unlikely to me that Holmes will start every sixth game. So, the question is if he'll spend time on the IL or will they skip starts? And if they skip starts, will they have him pitch out of the pen to keep sharp? The 6-man rotation and how they'll implement it is a great unknown.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Holmes pitched some as a reliever. But I wouldn't wager on it.
I'll go out on a limb with Baty. I think he puts it together this year and goes for a OPS above .775 and around 20 HRs in 500 or so plate appearances.
In the bullpen I'm intrigued by Kranick. I could see him being a revelation, maybe doing some longer outings and an ERA under 3.00 in 80+ innings.
Thats funny Bob, I just read this and said 20 for Baty as well. Id rather have Baty in there rather than McNeil. He is younger, has more power and if he hits .250 we have got a new second baseman.
I also concur with most of the projections put forth. Saddened by the prospect of Alvarez not being a stronger bat since he has so much potential. Can live with what you suggested as long as he gets back behind the plate and takes charge like last year. Marte will be gone sooner than later one way or the other. If he is not healthy but not injured then they can't afford to waste the roster spot. If he stays healthy and can hit and run a bit in his DH role, then I see them moving him somewhere along with $10 million, the hitting poor Mariners might just take him and a few strong prospects for Castillo. Would still like one more proven arm on that starting staff.
Captain Ahab had Moby Dick and you have Luis Castillo. And while I don't believe you'll end up like Ahab, in the end his obsession didn't pay off.
The Mariners are not trading Castillo - especially if Marte is part of the package.
I think they'd trade Castillo for Marte if the Mets paid 100% *and* added Vientos.
At least I gave up thoughts of swapping bad contracts for Jordan Montgomery. So much promise and poof TJ surgery. And Castillo is not even their best arm. I think it’s more the thought of a proven commodity versus “let’s hope this works out.” I’m officially giving him up!
FWIW - I was open to acquiring Montgomery when the offseason started as I thought he was a good bounceback candidate.
Agree with you on Alvarez.
I'm not a believer in Baty, but I'd be pleased to be wrong: 235/310/325. Back to AAA when McNeil returns.
Yeah, Im with ya Paul. There is no way Baty is unseating McNeil.
Now this is fun. 13 Projections!
I'll take a crack at them:
Francisco Alvarez – 360 PA, .270/.315/.420, 14 HR
Brett Baty – 300 PA, .245/.350/.440, 13 HR
Paul Blackburn – 45 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
Starling Marte – 320 PA, .285/.345/.425, 9 HR
Luis Torrens – 250 PA, .235/.310/.385, 7 HR
Jesse Winker – 410 PA, .260/.350/.440, 17 HR
Jose Butto - 75 IP, 3.15 ERA
Reed Garrett - 66 IP, 3.20 ERA
Max Kranick – 75 IP, 3.25 ERA
A.J. Minter – 60 IP, 3.15 ERA
Dedniel Nunez – 50 IP, 2.50 ERA
Ryne Stanek – 55 IP, 4.10 ERA
Danny Young – 30 IP, 3.85 ERA
Alvarez: 434 PA, 240/312/446/768, 20 HR. He will take another step in his offensive Improvement.
Batty: 340 PA, 244/325/428/753, 12 HR. He will take at bats from Winker/Marte
Blackburn: 30 IP, 4.85 ERA. He will only pitch in junk innings.
Marte: 253 PA, 270/326/392/718. He will be a serviceable RHB DH.
Torrens: 210 PA, 233/292/350/642, 4 HR. He's better than Nido.
Winker: 273 PA, 232/348/350/699, 7 HR. He will be a disappointment.
Butto: 75 IP, 2.91 ERA
Garrett: 54 IP, 3.97 ERA
Kranick: 52 IP, 3.87 ERA
Minter: 51 IP, 2.77 ERA
Nunez: 52 IP, 2.74 ERA
Stanek: 34 IP, 4.48 ERA
Young: 34 IP, 4.53 ERA
Bonus Projection: Megill: 60 IP, 4.48 ERA I'm surprised you didn't include him.
Certainly an oversight on my part. Here’s my Megill prediction:
156 IP, 3.76 ERA — so I’m more bullish than you. It’s bizarro world, where I’m expecting good things from Megill, of all people.
And yet I have predicted that his ERA 4.48 will be better the Canning's 4.90 or Blackburn's 4.85 ! If fact, I'll predict that he will be better the Montas. I'll predict a 4.58 ERA for Montas with 72 IP.
Hitters:
Francisco Alvarez AB: 300 BA: .240 OBP: .289 Slg: .340 HR: 14
Luis Torrens AB: 175 BA: .208 OBP: .259 Slg: .308 HR: 7
Brett Baty AB: 510 BA: .272 OBP: .365 Slg: .528 HR: 24
Starling Marte AB: 250 BA: .276 OBP: .330 Slg: .440 HR: 11
Jesse Winker AB: 350 BA: .247 OBP: .315 Slg: .450 HR: 18
Pitchers:
Paul Blackburn 100 IP ERA: 4.40 WHIP: 1.59 K/9: 8.1 HR/9: 1.4
Jose Butto 72 IP ERA: 2.71 WHIP: 1.26 K/9: 12.1 HR/9: 0.7
Reed Garrett 63 IP ERA: 2.45 WHIP: 1.22 K/9: 12.5 HR/9: 0.8
Max Kranick 80 IP ERA: 3.07 WHIP: 1.13 K/9: 8.9 HR/9: 1.0
A.J. Minter 50 IP ERA: 4.10 WHIP: 1.30 K/9: 10.9 HR/9: 1.5
Dedniel Nunez 55 IP ERA: 3.52 WHIP: 1.35 K/9: 11.1 HR/9: 1.1
Ryne Stanek 67 IP ERA: 2.25 WHIP: 1.08 K/9: 11.2 HR/9: 0.8
Danny Young 44 IP ERA: 3.24 WHIP: 1.21 K/9: 7.9 HR/9: 0.9