The Mets made their first major free agent pickup of the offseason, as they signed Frankie Montas to a two-year deal with a player option for a third season late Sunday night.
Seems like another case of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a retread starter. So no one wants to give Alonso $25-$28 million but Mantas gets $17 million and is no more than a fifth starter? Is he any better than Tylor Megill, other than some years ago when he wasn’t injured? Is Jeremy Hefner good enough to turn him around and was he one of the reasons that Severino and Manaea did so well? Perhaps a good depth signing but committing $34 million in total with the second year option at the players choice, is bad economics. Why have they not resigned Manaea already?
This was a good signing for the back of the rotation. Part of the Stearns plan. We have to trust him. In 86, Ojeda came in as a back of the rotation starter and won 18 games. Now, on to Soto. To Soto or not to Soto, that is the question.
It's a 2 yr contract with player option after the 1st year. Same as Manaea's. I think he's Quintana's replacement. 2 more SP signings to come. Hopefully 2 from Manaea, Burnes, Buehler.
My take is that there's no way that Burnes ends up on the Mets, as Stearns won't give him the years he seeks. I can see the other two. FWIW, Manaea signed a one-year deal with a player option, while Montas is a two-year deal with the player option.
While early reports were a two-year deal with an option, SNY is now reporting a one-year deal with an option. So, you were correct in comparing it to Manaea's deal.
When your team signs free agent starter you would hope that he is better than the previous player that he is replacing . All seven starters on the present roster for the Mets had a better ERA and WHIP than him in 2024. Six had a better FIP than him. He did have 30 starts though, and the Mets need innings pitch for 2025. The Mets need more than him in their rotation. It was a disappointing signing.
A successful organization should be able to look at players and decide what went into his most-recent results and decide if those were due to things that can be fixed or things that have more to do with luck than skill.
Montas' increased velocity as the season progressed is a good sign.
His results in the overwhelming majority of his starts for MIL is another good sign
That one pitch among a varied repertoire was so bad -- that points a way forward, either to tweak or abandon that pitch.
Does getting a year further out from his surgery help fix his command issues?
Better luck on his HR/FB rate would help a lot, too.
Ideally, you could get Montas on a cheaper deal. But this is just another data point that getting starters in free agency is an expensive proposition.
Obviously, this won't be the only move the Mets make to import a starter. Hopefully Montas won't be the top pitcher they add this season. But I'm not disappointed in this move at all. It seems to me to be a well-considered move by Stearns, the exact type of move you'd expect him to make.
The Mets need to fill at least 3 rotation spots if you assume Senga and Peterson are locked in. My guess is Montas is the 3rd best starting pitcher we sign this off season.
1.
2.Senga
3.
4.Peterson
5.Montas
You could do worse than Frankie for #5 especially with MeGill, Butto, Sproat, and eventually Blackburn as depth options. Particularly if we buy into Peterson having figured it out over a pretty large sample size last season. That's a strong backend so long as #s 1 and 3 are higher end starters. Not a ton of free agents who are - Burnes, Fried, maybe Buehler, Sasaki (pray!), Eovaldi perhaps, Manaea. Crochet on the trade market. Imagine the rotation if 1 and 3 are Crochet and Sasaki. Or even Crochet, Sasaki and Manaea, pushing Montas to 6 which we know they will be employing. Montas fared much better on 5 days of rest than 4 days of rest last year as well.
this s a classic stern's signing. Im not wildly excited but Im also not disappointed. we need several arms and we need innings eaters. Montas is that. I see him as a 3-4 guy, more like a 4, with 3 ceiling. it seems to me we have the black end of the rotation staffed from 3-7. That leaves a lot of quality innings left to fill somehow, esp if we really are looking at a 6 starter rotation.
I cant even tell you Senga is going to pitch 100 innings. They may think of him as something special, but all evidence points elsewhere. I think the Senga ship has sailed straight to jail, do not pass go, do not collect 200$
I think a realistic rotation will be (Top 5 in alphabetical order) Buehler, Manaea, Montas, Peterson, Senga, with Blackburn, Butto, and Megill as the spot/6th starter. I’d be fine with this. I think that the long contracts for starting pitchers is a bad bet. Cohen is willing to spend money, but he didn’t become a billionaire by chasing bad deals. Given the investments in the pitching lab and coaching, I don’t blame them for thinking that they can improve performance for pitchers looking to rebound. They have some interesting arms working their way up (Sproat, Tong, esp) and hopefully they will use the top pick for another potential front line starter.
Seems like another case of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a retread starter. So no one wants to give Alonso $25-$28 million but Mantas gets $17 million and is no more than a fifth starter? Is he any better than Tylor Megill, other than some years ago when he wasn’t injured? Is Jeremy Hefner good enough to turn him around and was he one of the reasons that Severino and Manaea did so well? Perhaps a good depth signing but committing $34 million in total with the second year option at the players choice, is bad economics. Why have they not resigned Manaea already?
Come on Stearns. Make a splash now!
My opinion is that Montas has a floor of a fifth starter, with the upside of an SP2.
If Alonso was willing to sign a two-year deal, the Mets would sign him, too.
This was a good signing for the back of the rotation. Part of the Stearns plan. We have to trust him. In 86, Ojeda came in as a back of the rotation starter and won 18 games. Now, on to Soto. To Soto or not to Soto, that is the question.
It's a 2 yr contract with player option after the 1st year. Same as Manaea's. I think he's Quintana's replacement. 2 more SP signings to come. Hopefully 2 from Manaea, Burnes, Buehler.
My take is that there's no way that Burnes ends up on the Mets, as Stearns won't give him the years he seeks. I can see the other two. FWIW, Manaea signed a one-year deal with a player option, while Montas is a two-year deal with the player option.
While early reports were a two-year deal with an option, SNY is now reporting a one-year deal with an option. So, you were correct in comparing it to Manaea's deal.
When your team signs free agent starter you would hope that he is better than the previous player that he is replacing . All seven starters on the present roster for the Mets had a better ERA and WHIP than him in 2024. Six had a better FIP than him. He did have 30 starts though, and the Mets need innings pitch for 2025. The Mets need more than him in their rotation. It was a disappointing signing.
I disagree with this take.
A successful organization should be able to look at players and decide what went into his most-recent results and decide if those were due to things that can be fixed or things that have more to do with luck than skill.
Montas' increased velocity as the season progressed is a good sign.
His results in the overwhelming majority of his starts for MIL is another good sign
That one pitch among a varied repertoire was so bad -- that points a way forward, either to tweak or abandon that pitch.
Does getting a year further out from his surgery help fix his command issues?
Better luck on his HR/FB rate would help a lot, too.
Ideally, you could get Montas on a cheaper deal. But this is just another data point that getting starters in free agency is an expensive proposition.
Obviously, this won't be the only move the Mets make to import a starter. Hopefully Montas won't be the top pitcher they add this season. But I'm not disappointed in this move at all. It seems to me to be a well-considered move by Stearns, the exact type of move you'd expect him to make.
The Mets need to fill at least 3 rotation spots if you assume Senga and Peterson are locked in. My guess is Montas is the 3rd best starting pitcher we sign this off season.
1.
2.Senga
3.
4.Peterson
5.Montas
You could do worse than Frankie for #5 especially with MeGill, Butto, Sproat, and eventually Blackburn as depth options. Particularly if we buy into Peterson having figured it out over a pretty large sample size last season. That's a strong backend so long as #s 1 and 3 are higher end starters. Not a ton of free agents who are - Burnes, Fried, maybe Buehler, Sasaki (pray!), Eovaldi perhaps, Manaea. Crochet on the trade market. Imagine the rotation if 1 and 3 are Crochet and Sasaki. Or even Crochet, Sasaki and Manaea, pushing Montas to 6 which we know they will be employing. Montas fared much better on 5 days of rest than 4 days of rest last year as well.
I just saw the days of rest thing for Montas posted by Mathew Brownstein on Twitter:
"Frankie Montas on 4-days rest in 2024:
8 GS, 8.29 ERA, 1.901 WHIP, .961 OPS against
Frankie Montas on 5 or more days rest in 2024:
22 GS, 3.85 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, .672 OPS against "
Next SP move by Stearns: Walker Buehler in a a bit pricier deal to Montas's two-year deal with the opt out?
Just realized that Montas is a Boras client. Now the signing makes Soto sense.
this s a classic stern's signing. Im not wildly excited but Im also not disappointed. we need several arms and we need innings eaters. Montas is that. I see him as a 3-4 guy, more like a 4, with 3 ceiling. it seems to me we have the black end of the rotation staffed from 3-7. That leaves a lot of quality innings left to fill somehow, esp if we really are looking at a 6 starter rotation.
1.
2.
3. Senga
4. Montas/Peterson
5. Peterson/Montas
6. Butto
7. Megill
8. Sproat?
I'd be shocked if Stearns & Cohen looked at Senga as a 3 and Peterson as a 4./5
My guess is they view Senga as 1/2 and Peterson as a 3
I cant even tell you Senga is going to pitch 100 innings. They may think of him as something special, but all evidence points elsewhere. I think the Senga ship has sailed straight to jail, do not pass go, do not collect 200$
I think a realistic rotation will be (Top 5 in alphabetical order) Buehler, Manaea, Montas, Peterson, Senga, with Blackburn, Butto, and Megill as the spot/6th starter. I’d be fine with this. I think that the long contracts for starting pitchers is a bad bet. Cohen is willing to spend money, but he didn’t become a billionaire by chasing bad deals. Given the investments in the pitching lab and coaching, I don’t blame them for thinking that they can improve performance for pitchers looking to rebound. They have some interesting arms working their way up (Sproat, Tong, esp) and hopefully they will use the top pick for another potential front line starter.
While I'm holding out hope that they trade for Crochet, this looks like a reasonable guess at the 2025 rotation.