Mets Minors: Early season surprises

Making mountains out of mole hills

We are two-three weeks into the minor league baseball season, and we have enough games under our belt to see things but not enough time to know if they are real or figments of our Mets-Maginations(™). Sometimes early results are good, and we get overly pumped about a prospect who may not really be as good as an early season hitting streak and sometimes, we abandon ship too soon on a player who has a bad couple of outings but it’s hard not extrapolate things from the early going. Three players stand out to me as early season surprises and they are Chris Suero, Eli Serrano III and Jonah Tong.

Getting overly excited about 29 at bats is problematic and I don’t expect Chris Suero to stay on this pace at Advanced A, let alone if he’s promoted to AA (where he belongs). His .828 SLG is a striking anomaly, but he has shown flashes of getting this hot when things are working. His strikeout rate in 2025 has also gone up with his power numbers and, while this isn’t yet a dangerous red flag, we’ll pay attention to it.

Eli Serrano III has also enjoyed his first 8 games in Brooklyn. The outfield prospect taken in the 4th round did not come with overly glowing scouting. He’s a big guy, at 6’5” and some power was expected to develop but he was ranked over 100 spots lower than where the Mets selected him, and nothing jumped off the page. This season things are jumping as not only has he been hitting but he’s shown a solid eye at the plate managing an equal numbers of walks and strikeouts in the early going.

I can’t get too panicked over one start but one of my personal favorite prospects had a less than stellar debut to the season and his numbers surprised me. Jonah Tong, who exploded into relevance in 2024, began his 2025 season with a clunker of an outing for AA Binghamton. He only lasted 4.0 innings and in that time his control faltered catastrophically. He had 5 walks and a hit batsman after showing consistently good control all of last season. Maybe it was too cold where he was playing, or he was tinkering but it was a surprisingly bad debut for a prospect I’m excited about.

AAA Syracuse Mets

The rehab assignment for Drew Gilbert in Low A is going well and he’s likely to be moved back up to an age and level appropriate assignment soon. It is worth noting that there are really no notable prospects in Syracuse for Gilbert to be joining at the moment with Williams and Clifford in AA, Baty in the majors and Ronny Mauricio injured. I’m also keeping tabs on the Jose Siri injury. While the Mets have some options beyond Gilbert for a short-term outfielder, I expect Gilbert to be vying for the lion’s share of the CF position by the end of the season.

Notes:

• Dom Hamel, RHP (26) - Hamel starts 2025 off on a better foot with a 5.0 inning outing with no walks and only 2 hits.

• Brandon Sproat, RHP (24) - The AAA blues hopefully start to clear as Sproat’s ERA begins to come down in start number three and those walk numbers get back under control.

• Blade Tidwell, RHP (23) - It’s the opposite for Tidwell, who saw his solid first start followed by increasing control problems and a rising ERA.

AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies

One player who is making a bid for “Top Prospect” is Nolan McLean who has started his season with two very promising outings. In 9.0 innings he’s only given up 7 hits and 1 earned run but his second outing did see the dark specter of control problems. During that game the power pitcher walked 3 batters and hit 2 of them.

Notes:

• Douglas Orellana, RHP (22) - A reliever off to a solid start, Orellana has 7 Ks in 3.2 IP and, impressively, no walks and no hits.

• Jack Wenninger, RHP (23) - Defying expectations, Wenninger looks like a different pitcher on the stat line. He has 16 K’s over his first two starts.

• Kevin Parada, C (23) - No hits in his first 3 starts but Parada has managed to change that in his last two. He needs to start living up to his potential this season.

• Ryan Clifford, 1B (21) - Not yet hitting the way we know he can, Clifford is enjoying being avoided by pitchers as he is walking a lot more this season.

• Jett Williams, SS (21) - Something that has always been odd and great about Williams is how many of his hits go for extra bases. I do wish he was a little more patient at the plate.

• Nick Morabito, OF (21) - When you don’t have power you can’t strike out once a game… let alone twice.

A+ Brookyln Cyclones

Why should you be excited about Carson Benge? Well, I think there are a few reasons but one of the biggest is how polished he is upon arrival. The Mets aren’t looking at a prospect with a lot of projects with Benge. He has good contact and a good eye with some power. He’s likely, given his age, to advance a level mid-season and if his early numbers in Advanced A continue that could happen sooner than later. If I am comparing ceilings, Benge has a higher Ceiling than Gilbert thanks to better projected power and when comparing floors… they’re honestly not that far apart.

Notes:

• Joel Diaz, RHP (21) - A player you can expect to rise in the rankings, Diaz has had two very good 4.0 inning outings to start the season.

• Ryan Lambert, RHP (22) - A high strikeout reliever you may want to add to your radar.

• Jonathan Santucci, LHP (22) - Nothing too good or bad to report from game 1 for Santucci, who enjoys some status by being the only lefty starter in the Top 50.

• Ronald Hernandez, C (21) - Not a great start for Hernandez but he’s only played in 6 games and is splitting catching duties with Chris Suero.

• Boston Baro, SS (20) - He looks like he has the ceiling of a versatile bench player with the added wrinkle of having some power.

• Jacob Reimer, 3B (21) - The thing most impressive about Reimer’s .803 OPS in this young season? The lack of home runs. He’s one of the better power bats in the minors.

A Port St. Lucie Mets

The wild card of the Mets Minors is, once again, Matt Allan. The player the Mets “stole” in the 2019 draft has had two Tommy John surgeries and is finally pitching again. He’s hitting 96-97 on the radar gun and he’s tossed 6.1 innings with 8 strikeouts to begin his 2025 campaign. The Mets are ramping his innings right now but if his peripherals remain solid he should be promoted as soon as he’s back to starting 5-6 IP per start.

Notes:

• Nate Dohm, RHP (22) - Dohm is a ground ball pitcher and has given up a few too many hits in his first two outings but with the GO/AO numbers that could be partially defense.

• Cristofer Gomez, RHP (21) - It’s early but it’s another reliever to keep your eye on with high K numbers.

• Daiverson Gutierrez, C (19) - With Jovanny Rodriguez injured, Gutierrez is making the most of his early season and establishing solid contact numbers.

• Jesus Baez, SS (20) - This assignment is really a rehab one and Baez is starting to come around.

• A.J. Ewing, SS (20) - If we didn’t know better, we’d be over the moon for this 1.204 OPS start. He even has 4 XBH and 5 SB for the season. I like Ewing but he and Boston Baro are both destined for the bench in all likelihood.

• Colin Houck, SS (20) - Talking positives he only has 9 Ks in 9 games. That is progress for him.

• Jeremy Rodriguez, SS (18) - On a team with too many shortstops, Rodriguez has played a little second and a little third.

• Marco Vargas, SS (19) - He’s healthy again and he’s hitting. The Mets have scared me a few times by taking him out of games early for pinch runners. He could be a candidate for an early season promotion.