After months of seemingly no progress in talks with their homegrown free agent, the Mets agreed to a 2/$54 deal with Pete Alonso, one that comes with an opt-out after one season.
The contract is valued at 3.7 fWAR this year. If Alonso produces at that value then the Mets should have a very good year. If I had a choice 2025 starters between the 2024 Alonso instead of a risk of 2025 Baty, Mauricio or Acuna then I would pick Alonso because of the stability. It seems like it is an overpay for the peace of mind.
On the free agent market, a unit of fWAR is valued at roughly $8 million. Alonso is set to earn $30 million, which puts the break-even point right around 3.7 fWAR.
Although it will be impossible to calculate, I suspect that Alonso's contract will increase Soto's WAR to some degree. Soto has to be one of the happiest people this morning. Vientos may be a great hitter at some point, but is not up to Alonso's stature in the league yet. Soto can do more damage hitting ahead of Pete than hitting directly ahead of Mark (in 2025). Pete's signing really lengthens the lineup and will bump the WAR of others around him. I don't have any issue believing that the 3.7 will be attained, even if it isn't all in Pete's column.
Feels good. The annual average is high but he gets bonus bucks for being homegrown and likely breaking the franchise homerun record this season. That pursuit will help sell some extra tickets.
If Pete was willing to accept the lower AAV, he would undoubtedly gotten more years somewhere. If Walker got 3/$60, Alonso could have gotten 4/$92 or so somewhere else. But, his love for the Mets didn’t accept that, so here he is. As Metsense points out, it’s a bet between the known and the unknown, and the unknown must factor in how Vientos would handle the move to first base.
As for mentioning an overpay, that is hubris. When the team doesn’t have a first baseman and the one available solves the problem in more than a satisfactory manner that allows you to still feel that a championship is possible, why not get it done?
Im in complete agreement Gus. Instantly puts stability in the infield and lineup. I expect Soto to help Pete get good pitches too. Im not at all worried about a 1 year contract. Its hardly worth mention IMO.
Pet got a grip and came home. Cohen got a grip and didnt shell out nearly the money he might have. Win for everybody even if Pete is basically who he is.
An overpay, but the team is better with him at 1B and Vientos at 3B than Baty at 3B and Vientos at first. A 2-3 win improvement could be the difference in winning the division.
It may be an overpay but it fills a big need with the best available option. In the Wilpon days an overpay of $5 to $10 million likely meant that several other needs would go unfilled. While the roster is not perfect, this really rounds it out nicely and if this is the last move the team makes, I’m happy to go into the season with this roster.
Like they say, there are no bad one-year contracts, and this fits right in. In the Mets contracts Hall of Shame, none will eclipse Scherzer or Verlander, making apete’s contract look downright dreamy. Is he worth 30M for 1 season, not likely. On the other hand, this instantly solves a lot of crappy unknowns in the infield. the only issue now is 2B where we have a potential rotating cast of characters who will have to earn it. It also keeps the Guerrero FA in play and gives time for Nimmo to learn 1B. That one piece makes a big deal, and squarely fits into “the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts”.
Welcome back Pete. Now go out and break all the records and for the love of god stop swinging at pitches that land in StonyBrook.
Sure. Guerrero is Soto just 150 feet closer to home plate. The main thing is that hes he will be 3 years younger than pete coming to FA and he's right now 2 bWAR ahead of Pete, and likely 6-8 bWAR ahead when he becomes an FA. Vladi's main issue is body type, which does not age well, so I dont see a 12 yr contract for him.
I am not as convinced as Chris is about Gus's great question. I am also not ready to proclaim Guerrero the Soto of the infield. Guerrero had a great year in 2024, buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP of .342. If he regresses to the mean (and his own average) in 2025, his WAR will drop along with it. His baserunning stats are trending in the wrong direction and his fielding stats are not great either. Just with the surface numbers, Alonso is both a better fielder and a better baserunner than Guerrero. I think he will not find a Soto like market. My guess is that he will not surpass a $300M contract if he waits. As shown this year, there are no teams willing to commit years and dollars to first basemen. I don't know what team will all the sudden change its mind. (nor do I have any other 2026 free agent lists handy, so I don't know who will command the money next year).
Guerrero has two years under his belt where he was better than Alonso's best - 2021 and 2024. If he adds a third year in 2025 - far from a sure thing - that makes him a very intriguing guy, given his age. I wouldn't go 12 years on him but a massive AAV over 7 years certainly is in play, from my POV. And there could be teams who'd want to lower the AAV by adding more years.
It would take almost a perfect storm for Guerrero to be on the Mets' radar. He'd have to rake this year, Pete would have to leave and none of the 1B/3B options in the system would have to impress. I'd put it in single digits.
I agree with your assessment of the chances the Mets are in on him. I also agree that perhaps a 7 year contract is a ceiling, but I question whether it will be the massive AAV. This year will be interesting for him. He obviously is a very good player, but has been all over the map - half his years ended with and OPS less than .800, another one at just .818 and then the two massive stat years. It is a hard read to see where he will end up - Vlad Guerrero Sr. or Pedro Guerrero? His trend so fare looks more like Pedro than Pop.
The contract isn't a slam dunk but it could be far worse and his bat does make our lineup much deeper. Right now I am playing with the Mets lineup to see how to deal with the lefty righty matchups and how not to stifle our speed too badly.
I expect the Mets lineup to change quite a bit until one sticks with Lindor in leadoff being one of the few constants.
The platoons of Winker/Marte and Taylor/Siri look good on paper and should give the team a lot of flexibility.
This finally sends Baty down to the minors in my projections where I believe that Baty will either play 1B or LF if Mauricio is healthy
Looks like I can finally work on my Spring Training Storylines
I'd say that barring another signing that Baty has a decent chance to make the Opening Day roster as a utility player. I dunno - maybe 30%? Ideally, you'd like a guy who could play SS. But it's not like Madrigal is a SS, either. So, the question becomes: Does the org want to start Acuna's career as a utility player? Or are they still holding out hope he can be a starter? If the latter, he's much better off in SYR playing every day and trying to force his way onto the team, ahead of Mauricio.
Great take Brian. One other advantage that Baty has is that he hits left handed. Against right handed pitching, it appears their bench will be Torrens, Marte, one of Taylor or Siri and ___________. All four mentioned players hit right handed.
Winker is also a lefty and will be a bench player when Marte is playing. I see Winker/Marte being an almost exclusive DH platoon, with the other one the first guy off the bench.
Baty is still an option for the opening day roster because of his continued success in the AAA level. Mauricio is a better fit but he hasn't played in a year. Acuno needs more success in the AAA level and it would be foolish to use him just as a utility player at his age. Madigal was signed to replace Iglesias. He is a better fielder and should be used as a late inning defensive replacement for Vientos. The Alonso signing has opened the to him to make the team.
Had to re-read the list to figure out who #27 was - Clay Holmes.
It's easy to nitpick these lists - especially in hindsight. But it's curious to me how these rankings would be if made right now. Would Manaea (3/$75) rank above Alonso (2/$54) - especially given how long it took Pete to get that deal? Essentially, the Mets offered Alonso 3/$70 and he chose the two-year deal, instead.
They'd be close, but Alonso probably gets the edge due to being on the field every day. Would be a different ranking I think if they re-ordered based off of contract value or something like that.
Maybe it was my imagination, but it seemed like the pitchers were getting the money this year and other than Soto, the position players didn't have the big payday. Even some of the lesser pitchers (other than the 200M guys) seemed to make out pretty well.
Well said Brian. I couldn’t be happier. LGM
The contract is valued at 3.7 fWAR this year. If Alonso produces at that value then the Mets should have a very good year. If I had a choice 2025 starters between the 2024 Alonso instead of a risk of 2025 Baty, Mauricio or Acuna then I would pick Alonso because of the stability. It seems like it is an overpay for the peace of mind.
Without sounding snarky, and just curious, how did you arrive at the 3.7 WAR value for this year?
On the free agent market, a unit of fWAR is valued at roughly $8 million. Alonso is set to earn $30 million, which puts the break-even point right around 3.7 fWAR.
Gotcha . thanks!
Although it will be impossible to calculate, I suspect that Alonso's contract will increase Soto's WAR to some degree. Soto has to be one of the happiest people this morning. Vientos may be a great hitter at some point, but is not up to Alonso's stature in the league yet. Soto can do more damage hitting ahead of Pete than hitting directly ahead of Mark (in 2025). Pete's signing really lengthens the lineup and will bump the WAR of others around him. I don't have any issue believing that the 3.7 will be attained, even if it isn't all in Pete's column.
Interesting thought process Bill.
Feels good. The annual average is high but he gets bonus bucks for being homegrown and likely breaking the franchise homerun record this season. That pursuit will help sell some extra tickets.
If Pete was willing to accept the lower AAV, he would undoubtedly gotten more years somewhere. If Walker got 3/$60, Alonso could have gotten 4/$92 or so somewhere else. But, his love for the Mets didn’t accept that, so here he is. As Metsense points out, it’s a bet between the known and the unknown, and the unknown must factor in how Vientos would handle the move to first base.
As for mentioning an overpay, that is hubris. When the team doesn’t have a first baseman and the one available solves the problem in more than a satisfactory manner that allows you to still feel that a championship is possible, why not get it done?
Unique wisdom
It remains to be seen if Alonso "solves the problem in more than a satisfactory manner." That's certainly a possibility. It's far from a slam dunk.
Im in complete agreement Gus. Instantly puts stability in the infield and lineup. I expect Soto to help Pete get good pitches too. Im not at all worried about a 1 year contract. Its hardly worth mention IMO.
Pet got a grip and came home. Cohen got a grip and didnt shell out nearly the money he might have. Win for everybody even if Pete is basically who he is.
An overpay, but the team is better with him at 1B and Vientos at 3B than Baty at 3B and Vientos at first. A 2-3 win improvement could be the difference in winning the division.
It may be an overpay but it fills a big need with the best available option. In the Wilpon days an overpay of $5 to $10 million likely meant that several other needs would go unfilled. While the roster is not perfect, this really rounds it out nicely and if this is the last move the team makes, I’m happy to go into the season with this roster.
I am happy that it is only a two year deal. Mitigates the risk of a continued slump.
Like they say, there are no bad one-year contracts, and this fits right in. In the Mets contracts Hall of Shame, none will eclipse Scherzer or Verlander, making apete’s contract look downright dreamy. Is he worth 30M for 1 season, not likely. On the other hand, this instantly solves a lot of crappy unknowns in the infield. the only issue now is 2B where we have a potential rotating cast of characters who will have to earn it. It also keeps the Guerrero FA in play and gives time for Nimmo to learn 1B. That one piece makes a big deal, and squarely fits into “the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts”.
Welcome back Pete. Now go out and break all the records and for the love of god stop swinging at pitches that land in StonyBrook.
Chris, based on how first basemen are being treated, you really think that Vladdy will get that dream contract?
Sure. Guerrero is Soto just 150 feet closer to home plate. The main thing is that hes he will be 3 years younger than pete coming to FA and he's right now 2 bWAR ahead of Pete, and likely 6-8 bWAR ahead when he becomes an FA. Vladi's main issue is body type, which does not age well, so I dont see a 12 yr contract for him.
I am not as convinced as Chris is about Gus's great question. I am also not ready to proclaim Guerrero the Soto of the infield. Guerrero had a great year in 2024, buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP of .342. If he regresses to the mean (and his own average) in 2025, his WAR will drop along with it. His baserunning stats are trending in the wrong direction and his fielding stats are not great either. Just with the surface numbers, Alonso is both a better fielder and a better baserunner than Guerrero. I think he will not find a Soto like market. My guess is that he will not surpass a $300M contract if he waits. As shown this year, there are no teams willing to commit years and dollars to first basemen. I don't know what team will all the sudden change its mind. (nor do I have any other 2026 free agent lists handy, so I don't know who will command the money next year).
Guerrero has two years under his belt where he was better than Alonso's best - 2021 and 2024. If he adds a third year in 2025 - far from a sure thing - that makes him a very intriguing guy, given his age. I wouldn't go 12 years on him but a massive AAV over 7 years certainly is in play, from my POV. And there could be teams who'd want to lower the AAV by adding more years.
It would take almost a perfect storm for Guerrero to be on the Mets' radar. He'd have to rake this year, Pete would have to leave and none of the 1B/3B options in the system would have to impress. I'd put it in single digits.
I agree with your assessment of the chances the Mets are in on him. I also agree that perhaps a 7 year contract is a ceiling, but I question whether it will be the massive AAV. This year will be interesting for him. He obviously is a very good player, but has been all over the map - half his years ended with and OPS less than .800, another one at just .818 and then the two massive stat years. It is a hard read to see where he will end up - Vlad Guerrero Sr. or Pedro Guerrero? His trend so fare looks more like Pedro than Pop.
The contract isn't a slam dunk but it could be far worse and his bat does make our lineup much deeper. Right now I am playing with the Mets lineup to see how to deal with the lefty righty matchups and how not to stifle our speed too badly.
I expect the Mets lineup to change quite a bit until one sticks with Lindor in leadoff being one of the few constants.
The platoons of Winker/Marte and Taylor/Siri look good on paper and should give the team a lot of flexibility.
This finally sends Baty down to the minors in my projections where I believe that Baty will either play 1B or LF if Mauricio is healthy
Looks like I can finally work on my Spring Training Storylines
I'd say that barring another signing that Baty has a decent chance to make the Opening Day roster as a utility player. I dunno - maybe 30%? Ideally, you'd like a guy who could play SS. But it's not like Madrigal is a SS, either. So, the question becomes: Does the org want to start Acuna's career as a utility player? Or are they still holding out hope he can be a starter? If the latter, he's much better off in SYR playing every day and trying to force his way onto the team, ahead of Mauricio.
Great take Brian. One other advantage that Baty has is that he hits left handed. Against right handed pitching, it appears their bench will be Torrens, Marte, one of Taylor or Siri and ___________. All four mentioned players hit right handed.
Winker is also a lefty and will be a bench player when Marte is playing. I see Winker/Marte being an almost exclusive DH platoon, with the other one the first guy off the bench.
Baty is still an option for the opening day roster because of his continued success in the AAA level. Mauricio is a better fit but he hasn't played in a year. Acuno needs more success in the AAA level and it would be foolish to use him just as a utility player at his age. Madigal was signed to replace Iglesias. He is a better fielder and should be used as a late inning defensive replacement for Vientos. The Alonso signing has opened the to him to make the team.
With Alonso signed, I doubt there's room for both Baty and Madrigal on the Opening Day roster.
Alvarez, Alonso, McNeil, Vientos, Lindor, Nimmo, Taylor, Soto, Winker
Torrens, Siri, Marte
Only room for one more position player
I agree. Baty's best chance to play in the bigs is being traded, which hopefully gets done soon.
I guess my response was confusing. I realize that there is only one open
According to Tim Britton and the Athletic, the Mets have now signed the #s 1, 8, 12 & 27 best free agents of the offseason.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5891633/2025/02/05/2024-25-mlb-top-40-free-agmlb-top-40-free-agents-2024-big-boardent-big-board-welcome-to-the-juan-soto-sweepstakes/
Had to re-read the list to figure out who #27 was - Clay Holmes.
It's easy to nitpick these lists - especially in hindsight. But it's curious to me how these rankings would be if made right now. Would Manaea (3/$75) rank above Alonso (2/$54) - especially given how long it took Pete to get that deal? Essentially, the Mets offered Alonso 3/$70 and he chose the two-year deal, instead.
They'd be close, but Alonso probably gets the edge due to being on the field every day. Would be a different ranking I think if they re-ordered based off of contract value or something like that.
Maybe it was my imagination, but it seemed like the pitchers were getting the money this year and other than Soto, the position players didn't have the big payday. Even some of the lesser pitchers (other than the 200M guys) seemed to make out pretty well.