The Mets added another potential starting pitcher to their staff, adding former Yankees closer Clay Holmes on a 3/$38 million deal Friday night, pending a physical.
Love this signing and would be happy to just keep him in the pen. Tanner Scott was next in my list. Now go get Buehler or Flaherty to be starters. Can anyone remember why we wouldn’t let Lugo start? You will Brian.
I had no doubt you would have the answer - and that you had opined on it way back when. Thanks. Funny that two pitchers he was compared to in your article were the currently sought after Max Fried, and veteran Adam Wainright. Lugo had a breakout season as a starter at age 35 going 16-9 with a 3 ERA over 26 starts and 206 innings for KC so it must have been nurture over nature that got him there after a stop in San Diego where he threw 146 innings over 26 starts. Can’t really think of him as a missed opportunity and as I recall there was an arm issue that we all thought would need surgery at some time but he has skirted that issue. Good for him and the $45 million three year contract he signed last year.
Mark me down as a thumbs up on this signing. Holmes certainly had a rough second half and my Yankee friends say good riddance, but he is a quality arm still in prime years at a very affordable price. Having confidence in the Met brain trust and the lab, I think the Mets will get the most out of him. Seve was an easy guy to root for but Holmes at almost held price is a no brainer. Keep accumulating quality arms are reasonable prices Mr. Stearns.
I’m ok with this move. I agree with Brian’s comment and I’d take this over Severino’s deal anytime. I don’t know what promises were made to Holmes about starting but seems like he could also be a relief option, particularly if they go with a 6 man rotation (or some form of that). Maybe Holmes can become one the types that Brian has talked about and be a guy who can give multiple innings a couple times a week in addition to getting some starts.
I’m not sure how I feel about this… the opt-out after two years might have a Holmes over perform and bet on himself. Like Manaea did.
My cousin, a Yankees fan, says he’s TRAAAASH (lol), but what I know about it Stearns, he tends to find these high risk/high reward guys on the heap. So that’s on brand for them.
Im with you on this Brian. After finding out, I had to process it to get my mind straight and to overcome the irony with Lugo. It feels like a very Stearns like maneuver, and like you said, he gets the benefit of the doubt. But theres some real issues about covering all the regular season innings let alone a WS run. We cant also forget that by all signs we are heading to a 6-man rotation so we need 8-10 starters for the season.
Let’s say a team plays 1500 innings in the regular season and 180 more for a WS win, so we’re talking about nearly 1700 innings for the season. For the regular season, 6 innings is about all we can hope for on average, so 2/3 of a game. For 1500 innings, we need 1000 from the starters and 500 from the pen.
Let’s see what we have:
1. Senga - Given the injury story k last year and the piles of questions surrounding his health, I think it would be lucky to squeeze 120 innings out of him.
2. Montas - It’s an up and down story with him, but let’s say he gives you 150 innings.
3. Peterson - looks like a hopeful 120 innings
4. Holmes - it’s a wild card here, but I think you can maybe hope for 100 or so innings having never provided more than 70 and averaging 63 the past few years.
5. Megill - if he is a starter, then you hope for 100 innings.
(6.) Butto - 100 innings old be 25 more than last year.
So as things stand the 5 we presently have sum to about 600 innings (or 700 with Butto), leaving us 300-400 short of what the starters need to deliver. That tells me we still need real front end starters, say 2, just to manage the need to start games. If the Holmes experiment fails, and he goes to the pen, the issue for starting innings gets even scarier.
So, while Holmes may be part of the new pen-to-rotation club, let’s not lose sight of reality. We havent even begun to talk about the 500+ innings we need from the pen yet either.
Im ok with this as long as we dont drink the kool-aid and thing we just signed a 180 inning starter.
If Peterson stays healthy no reason he can't give you a full starters IP of 170-180. He's ready. But your point is well taken. They still need a frontline starter and probably another mid-rotation. I'm hoping for Manaea back and praying for Sasaki but will gladly take Buehler.
I like the deal and like the strategy of stacking good arms. Best case he becomes this seasons Reynaldo Lopez, worst case he becomes Diaz' 8th inning setup guy. (Ok maybe there's a worse case than that, but you get my point). I'm wondering if this signals 1 or 2 more rotation adds. Would really like Manaea back and it's such a good fit I have to wonder where both sides are and what kind of market Manaea has discovered for himself. Sasaki is also going to posted this week so Mets probably want to take their swing there as well. If we could somehow land 2 of Sasaki, Manaea, Buehler I would really love the look of our rotation and depth going into the season.
The thing with Sasaki is that he's coming over not as a traditional free agent like Senga but rather someone who is subject to the international free agent pool, that typically covers the 16-year-olds from Latin America.
The Mets have roughly 6.2 million in their IFA budget but they've long been rumored to have a deal with Elian Pena, the 2nd-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and who is expected to have a $5 million price tag.
that was 2024 pool money. it resets after the new year and is what teams will be using to bid for Sasaki.
Brian - they would have to withdraw their handshake agreement with Pena to be sure. If it was me I'd choose 6 years of Sasaki now rather than wait 6 years for Pena.
Yeah, both Sasaki and Pena - wherever they wind up - will count against the club's 2025 IFA budget.
I understand the desire for Sasaki and his ability to contribute sooner. It just would be surprising to me if the Mets went against a handshake agreement with such an elite young talent, assuming he's not lying about his age.
As a setup man, Holmes is a good but slighty overpriced signing .
As an unproven starter it is a risky move. If it fails, at least he can go back to be a reliever. If it succeeds then they have a cheap starter. My expectations is that he will be a back and rotations starter.
Love this signing and would be happy to just keep him in the pen. Tanner Scott was next in my list. Now go get Buehler or Flaherty to be starters. Can anyone remember why we wouldn’t let Lugo start? You will Brian.
There was one year where they needed him in the pen. And there was another year when he got a few starts and did not do well.
Here's a piece I wrote about Lugo back in 2020, which hasn't been copied over to Substack yet. It goes into pretty deep detail about his work as a SP
https://mets360.com/?p=41323
I had no doubt you would have the answer - and that you had opined on it way back when. Thanks. Funny that two pitchers he was compared to in your article were the currently sought after Max Fried, and veteran Adam Wainright. Lugo had a breakout season as a starter at age 35 going 16-9 with a 3 ERA over 26 starts and 206 innings for KC so it must have been nurture over nature that got him there after a stop in San Diego where he threw 146 innings over 26 starts. Can’t really think of him as a missed opportunity and as I recall there was an arm issue that we all thought would need surgery at some time but he has skirted that issue. Good for him and the $45 million three year contract he signed last year.
Mark me down as a thumbs up on this signing. Holmes certainly had a rough second half and my Yankee friends say good riddance, but he is a quality arm still in prime years at a very affordable price. Having confidence in the Met brain trust and the lab, I think the Mets will get the most out of him. Seve was an easy guy to root for but Holmes at almost held price is a no brainer. Keep accumulating quality arms are reasonable prices Mr. Stearns.
I’m ok with this move. I agree with Brian’s comment and I’d take this over Severino’s deal anytime. I don’t know what promises were made to Holmes about starting but seems like he could also be a relief option, particularly if they go with a 6 man rotation (or some form of that). Maybe Holmes can become one the types that Brian has talked about and be a guy who can give multiple innings a couple times a week in addition to getting some starts.
I’m not sure how I feel about this… the opt-out after two years might have a Holmes over perform and bet on himself. Like Manaea did.
My cousin, a Yankees fan, says he’s TRAAAASH (lol), but what I know about it Stearns, he tends to find these high risk/high reward guys on the heap. So that’s on brand for them.
Im with you on this Brian. After finding out, I had to process it to get my mind straight and to overcome the irony with Lugo. It feels like a very Stearns like maneuver, and like you said, he gets the benefit of the doubt. But theres some real issues about covering all the regular season innings let alone a WS run. We cant also forget that by all signs we are heading to a 6-man rotation so we need 8-10 starters for the season.
Let’s say a team plays 1500 innings in the regular season and 180 more for a WS win, so we’re talking about nearly 1700 innings for the season. For the regular season, 6 innings is about all we can hope for on average, so 2/3 of a game. For 1500 innings, we need 1000 from the starters and 500 from the pen.
Let’s see what we have:
1. Senga - Given the injury story k last year and the piles of questions surrounding his health, I think it would be lucky to squeeze 120 innings out of him.
2. Montas - It’s an up and down story with him, but let’s say he gives you 150 innings.
3. Peterson - looks like a hopeful 120 innings
4. Holmes - it’s a wild card here, but I think you can maybe hope for 100 or so innings having never provided more than 70 and averaging 63 the past few years.
5. Megill - if he is a starter, then you hope for 100 innings.
(6.) Butto - 100 innings old be 25 more than last year.
So as things stand the 5 we presently have sum to about 600 innings (or 700 with Butto), leaving us 300-400 short of what the starters need to deliver. That tells me we still need real front end starters, say 2, just to manage the need to start games. If the Holmes experiment fails, and he goes to the pen, the issue for starting innings gets even scarier.
So, while Holmes may be part of the new pen-to-rotation club, let’s not lose sight of reality. We havent even begun to talk about the 500+ innings we need from the pen yet either.
Im ok with this as long as we dont drink the kool-aid and thing we just signed a 180 inning starter.
If Peterson stays healthy no reason he can't give you a full starters IP of 170-180. He's ready. But your point is well taken. They still need a frontline starter and probably another mid-rotation. I'm hoping for Manaea back and praying for Sasaki but will gladly take Buehler.
I like the deal and like the strategy of stacking good arms. Best case he becomes this seasons Reynaldo Lopez, worst case he becomes Diaz' 8th inning setup guy. (Ok maybe there's a worse case than that, but you get my point). I'm wondering if this signals 1 or 2 more rotation adds. Would really like Manaea back and it's such a good fit I have to wonder where both sides are and what kind of market Manaea has discovered for himself. Sasaki is also going to posted this week so Mets probably want to take their swing there as well. If we could somehow land 2 of Sasaki, Manaea, Buehler I would really love the look of our rotation and depth going into the season.
Sasaki (or Buehler)
Manaea
Senga
Peterson
Montas
Holmes
Butto/Sproat/McGill
The thing with Sasaki is that he's coming over not as a traditional free agent like Senga but rather someone who is subject to the international free agent pool, that typically covers the 16-year-olds from Latin America.
The Mets have roughly 6.2 million in their IFA budget but they've long been rumored to have a deal with Elian Pena, the 2nd-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and who is expected to have a $5 million price tag.
https://sports.yahoo.com/mets-expected-sign-international-prospect-195501529.html
It's going to be tough to get both Pena and Sasaki.
On top of that the Mets just traded for a rays pitcher in exchange or Intl pool money.
that was 2024 pool money. it resets after the new year and is what teams will be using to bid for Sasaki.
Brian - they would have to withdraw their handshake agreement with Pena to be sure. If it was me I'd choose 6 years of Sasaki now rather than wait 6 years for Pena.
Yeah, both Sasaki and Pena - wherever they wind up - will count against the club's 2025 IFA budget.
I understand the desire for Sasaki and his ability to contribute sooner. It just would be surprising to me if the Mets went against a handshake agreement with such an elite young talent, assuming he's not lying about his age.
As a setup man, Holmes is a good but slighty overpriced signing .
As an unproven starter it is a risky move. If it fails, at least he can go back to be a reliever. If it succeeds then they have a cheap starter. My expectations is that he will be a back and rotations starter.
I did not include Paul Blackburn in my starter projection, and with his back procedure, its just hard to know anything about his future.
Adamas to giants, 7/182.