Mets sign Griffin Canning to give them four pitchers vying for final rotation slot
We’re used to seeing multi-player competition in Spring Training for reliever spots. It’s not all that unusual to have two players vying for the last starting rotation. But the Mets are going to have quite the battle royale for a rotation spot, a competition that got only deeper with Wednesday night’s signing of Griffin Canning to a 1/$4.25 million deal.
Before getting to Canning, let’s look at how the Mets’ rotation stacks up now. It seems more likely than not that the club is going to use a six-man rotation. The pitchers who have a leg up on a rotation spot are: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. It seems a pretty decent bet that the club will sign another starter to form a top three with Senga and Peterson. If that does, indeed, happen – then there will be a bunch of hurlers vying for the last spot. Here are the contenders:
Paul Blackburn – In the past three seasons, Blackburn has appeared in 56 games, making 55 starts. In that span, he’s thrown 290.1 IP, with a 4.43 ERA and a 4.23 FIP. That ERA translates to an 89 ERA+. Blackburn made five starts with the Mets last year and three of them were very good – 18 IP, 3ER – and two of them were very bad. His last outing of the year he allowed 10 H and 5 ER in 2.1 IP. After that he wound up on the IL, eventually needing cerebrospinal fluid leak repair. Current reports have Blackburn being ready for Opening Day. FanGraphs does not show him with any options available. But it’s possible he could open the season in the minors on an injury rehab.
Jose Butto – The question with Butto is not if his stuff is good enough to be a starter in the majors. Rather, it’s can he do a better job throwing strikes. He’s already displayed enough to be a starter even with spotty command. If – and it’s a big if – he can limit his walks, Butto has the chance to be an SP2-SP3 type pitcher. In seven starts last year with the Mets, Butto had a 3.08 ERA with 38 Ks in 38 IP. He allowed just 3 HR as a starter but allowed 21 BB and 4 HBP. Even with all of those free baserunners, Butto had a strong 1.132 WHIP as a SP last year. Butto had better numbers in the pen last year and runs the risk of being considered “too valuable” as a reliever to use as a starter. Here’s hoping he gets a fair shot at the rotation.
The new guy – Canning has thrown 508 innings in the majors and has a 4.78 ERA and a 4.78 FIP, making him a very respectable entrant into this horse race for the last spot. Unfortunately, Canning regressed last year from a very respectable 2023, a season where he had a 9.85 K/9 and a 2.55 BB/9. In 2024, those marks fell to 6.82 and 3.46, respectively. The changeup has always been Canning’s best pitch and it was so last year, too. But the results weren’t quite as good with the change as they had been previously, perhaps due to losing velocity on his fastball, meaning less differential between the two offerings. Maybe the Mets think they can make a mechanical change or a tweak somehow. But without an option to stash him in the minors, it seems like he’ll have an uphill battle to beat out the two guys ahead of him on this list. And the next guy, too.
Tylor Megill – While it seems like Megill finally lost his golden-child status last year, he did what he does best – tease with a handful of really good starts and leave the impression that he’s half a step away from being a solid MLB SP. He’s a worthy contender for the sixth spot in the rotation. Unfortunately for him, he does have an option, so he might start the year in Syracuse by default.
*****
Undoubtedly, those among you who believe the Mets should be running a $400 million dollar payroll think the club should sign Corbin Burnes, Sean Manaea and Jack Flaherty to round out the rotation, before finally adding two more sluggers to the offense. But that’s not what you’re going to get from David Stearns. All of the people who pined for years for the Mets to get Stearns are now exasperated by his ideas of roster construction and team building.
Perhaps the GM/PoBO who’s reached the playoffs in five of his last six seasons should be given some slack for how he assembles his team.
Nice thought on Montgomery who was in big demand last year and is worth a one year try. Can’t imagine they can’t get him in a cheap trade so the DBacks can shed that salary. Like a Castillo better and he’s got three years left at about $21 million per.
I think we can all see that Stearns needs to weave his spells and find reclamation targets. I got no issues with that in the least. I will, however, be disappointed if we do not get another front line starter, and a bat for the 4 hole that does not include either Arenado or Goldschmidt, whom I staunchly oppose as absolutely against what this team is trying to do. Ive never heard anyone imagine a 400M$ payroll. The thing is you now just reset the timeline for 5 years to get a WS or two, so tinkering at the margins with the rotation is a recipe on par with a 7-11 hot dog from the case for Xmas dinner.
The rotation is incomplete as currently constructed, leveraging hope and luck against solid performers. For magic to happen, Stearns again needs to have Holmes land as a starter and magically increase his IP beyond what is reasonable for someone who maxed out at 70. Hope for a miracle with Senga and his injury status; right now there is little proof that all the sudden he’s back to a 1-2 starter that can pump 180 IP out with an ERa in the 3s and a WHIP <1.2. Blackburn? Griffin? Megill? This is the list for your 6-9 guys not actual regular starters IMO.