Given the status of their current rotation, trying to catch lightning in a bottle again with another starter wannabe is not how I would like to see them progress. Were they lucky with Manaea and Severino, or was that the result of working with Jeremy Hefner, who has been recently labeled a pitching guru who has survived different ownership and a number of different GMs and managers? Will Hefner be able to work his magic on Clay Holmes and his transition out of the bullpen?
Not saying Stearns will jump at Burnes and the years and dollars that free agent will demand, but I'd rather see them take a shot with Flaherty or Buehler or a trade for Castillo, all of whom have at least proven themselves MLB ready and not a fringe player who has not attained much success. Assume Canning will be stashed at AAA , and we all know that teams need more pitching throughout the years,
FIP is a better measure than ERA and it seems that if a mark of 4.0 is average, Canning's 4.78 is approaching well below average to poor. Butto and his FIP of 4.05 should get a shot at the rotation, and Blackburn was at least at 4.23. Unless I read it wrong, Fangraphs has Tylor Megill's career FIP at 4.4 and his 2024 total as 3.55. Assume Hefner will continue to work with him but he might also be a good inclusion in a deal for another pitcher like Castillo.
FWIW, the league average FIP for SP was 4.15 last season. Should a team's 6th SP be expected to have a better than league average FIP?
The Mets have that ability on hand with Butto. But do they trust him? In a way, he's the anti-Megill, as he doesn't have most-favored pitcher status.
As far as the other pitcher to slot alongside Senga and Peterson - one name that I think should be considered is Jordan Montgomery. Yeah, he was terrible last year. But he also had a screwed up off season and missed most/all of Spring Training. I think it's a reasonable assumption that he can get back closer to the guy he was from 2021-2023, when he had a 120 ERA+/3.62 FIP over 524.1 IP.
D'Backs want to ditch his salary but at 1/$22.5 million it's not extreme. He should be available in trade for not much if the Mets assume all of his salary.
Nice thought on Montgomery who was in big demand last year and is worth a one year try. Can’t imagine they can’t get him in a cheap trade so the DBacks can shed that salary. Like a Castillo better and he’s got three years left at about $21 million per.
I can’t say that I know much about Mr. Canning. While a signing like this is unexciting, I have no problem with Stearns expanding the depth of MLB-caliber arms, so long as they do add at least one “ace-caliber” or “solid 2” arm. That doesn’t necessarily mean a $400 million payroll…at least, hopefully not.
I think we can all see that Stearns needs to weave his spells and find reclamation targets. I got no issues with that in the least. I will, however, be disappointed if we do not get another front line starter, and a bat for the 4 hole that does not include either Arenado or Goldschmidt, whom I staunchly oppose as absolutely against what this team is trying to do. Ive never heard anyone imagine a 400M$ payroll. The thing is you now just reset the timeline for 5 years to get a WS or two, so tinkering at the margins with the rotation is a recipe on par with a 7-11 hot dog from the case for Xmas dinner.
The rotation is incomplete as currently constructed, leveraging hope and luck against solid performers. For magic to happen, Stearns again needs to have Holmes land as a starter and magically increase his IP beyond what is reasonable for someone who maxed out at 70. Hope for a miracle with Senga and his injury status; right now there is little proof that all the sudden he’s back to a 1-2 starter that can pump 180 IP out with an ERa in the 3s and a WHIP <1.2. Blackburn? Griffin? Megill? This is the list for your 6-9 guys not actual regular starters IMO.
I hope that Stearns will sign Manaea or Flaherty. If he is uncomfortable with the years then he should trade for Castillo. Montas appears to be a back end starter. Holmes is a question mark but at least he has a proven record as a relief pitcher. It would be good to have more stability in the present rotation. I don't like the idea of a six-man rotation but it seems like they are going to use that approach.
Butto would be my preferred choice but I think the Mets are going to use him in the bullpen.
Montas, Blackburn, Canning and Megill are SP5's. Megill has to pitch super in ST because he is only the one who has an option. Montas is guaranteed a rotation spot because it is salary. Blackburn and Canning will be the competition for the SP6 or long relief man (and hopefully not the SP5). For what it is worth , Canning has started 31 games in a season where as Blackburn has a maximum of 21 starts in one season.
tons of FAs still available, spring training still 2 months away. no player we've been reported to be actually in on has signed - except for soto - with us. if this is our rotation going into spring training i'll be skeptical. but have to have faith it won't be. canning as sp 5 or 6 or swingman/long relief is a nice upside play. his off speed stuff is nasty and he humbled the mets offense last summer when we played the angels. probably what caught Stearns attention in the first place.
Canning is another low risk/low upside addition to the back-end of the rotation lottery. I think that Stearns is developing his formula, which I do like, of leveraging their ability to improve performance given their coaching and the pitching lab. There are some nice fundamentals for Canning that a deep dive into BaseballSavant reveal and hopefully they can channel this towards progress in 2025. He what I hope will be an off-year in 2024 and will return to the positive trends he was making previously.
I love the idea of a Jordan Montgomery reclamation project. In addition to the indications that his awful 2024 was due to a late start, there is the Mendoza/Yankee connection which would give the latter an insight about his mental make-up (e.g. tenacity, responsiveness to coaching, work ethic, etc.) If he gets signed, I think the Mets have earned the benefit of doubt that they did a thorough due diligence and are not taking a flyer.
Given the status of their current rotation, trying to catch lightning in a bottle again with another starter wannabe is not how I would like to see them progress. Were they lucky with Manaea and Severino, or was that the result of working with Jeremy Hefner, who has been recently labeled a pitching guru who has survived different ownership and a number of different GMs and managers? Will Hefner be able to work his magic on Clay Holmes and his transition out of the bullpen?
Not saying Stearns will jump at Burnes and the years and dollars that free agent will demand, but I'd rather see them take a shot with Flaherty or Buehler or a trade for Castillo, all of whom have at least proven themselves MLB ready and not a fringe player who has not attained much success. Assume Canning will be stashed at AAA , and we all know that teams need more pitching throughout the years,
FIP is a better measure than ERA and it seems that if a mark of 4.0 is average, Canning's 4.78 is approaching well below average to poor. Butto and his FIP of 4.05 should get a shot at the rotation, and Blackburn was at least at 4.23. Unless I read it wrong, Fangraphs has Tylor Megill's career FIP at 4.4 and his 2024 total as 3.55. Assume Hefner will continue to work with him but he might also be a good inclusion in a deal for another pitcher like Castillo.
Clearly more work to be done on this rotation.
FWIW, the league average FIP for SP was 4.15 last season. Should a team's 6th SP be expected to have a better than league average FIP?
The Mets have that ability on hand with Butto. But do they trust him? In a way, he's the anti-Megill, as he doesn't have most-favored pitcher status.
As far as the other pitcher to slot alongside Senga and Peterson - one name that I think should be considered is Jordan Montgomery. Yeah, he was terrible last year. But he also had a screwed up off season and missed most/all of Spring Training. I think it's a reasonable assumption that he can get back closer to the guy he was from 2021-2023, when he had a 120 ERA+/3.62 FIP over 524.1 IP.
D'Backs want to ditch his salary but at 1/$22.5 million it's not extreme. He should be available in trade for not much if the Mets assume all of his salary.
Nice thought on Montgomery who was in big demand last year and is worth a one year try. Can’t imagine they can’t get him in a cheap trade so the DBacks can shed that salary. Like a Castillo better and he’s got three years left at about $21 million per.
I can’t say that I know much about Mr. Canning. While a signing like this is unexciting, I have no problem with Stearns expanding the depth of MLB-caliber arms, so long as they do add at least one “ace-caliber” or “solid 2” arm. That doesn’t necessarily mean a $400 million payroll…at least, hopefully not.
I think we can all see that Stearns needs to weave his spells and find reclamation targets. I got no issues with that in the least. I will, however, be disappointed if we do not get another front line starter, and a bat for the 4 hole that does not include either Arenado or Goldschmidt, whom I staunchly oppose as absolutely against what this team is trying to do. Ive never heard anyone imagine a 400M$ payroll. The thing is you now just reset the timeline for 5 years to get a WS or two, so tinkering at the margins with the rotation is a recipe on par with a 7-11 hot dog from the case for Xmas dinner.
The rotation is incomplete as currently constructed, leveraging hope and luck against solid performers. For magic to happen, Stearns again needs to have Holmes land as a starter and magically increase his IP beyond what is reasonable for someone who maxed out at 70. Hope for a miracle with Senga and his injury status; right now there is little proof that all the sudden he’s back to a 1-2 starter that can pump 180 IP out with an ERa in the 3s and a WHIP <1.2. Blackburn? Griffin? Megill? This is the list for your 6-9 guys not actual regular starters IMO.
I hope that Stearns will sign Manaea or Flaherty. If he is uncomfortable with the years then he should trade for Castillo. Montas appears to be a back end starter. Holmes is a question mark but at least he has a proven record as a relief pitcher. It would be good to have more stability in the present rotation. I don't like the idea of a six-man rotation but it seems like they are going to use that approach.
Butto would be my preferred choice but I think the Mets are going to use him in the bullpen.
Montas, Blackburn, Canning and Megill are SP5's. Megill has to pitch super in ST because he is only the one who has an option. Montas is guaranteed a rotation spot because it is salary. Blackburn and Canning will be the competition for the SP6 or long relief man (and hopefully not the SP5). For what it is worth , Canning has started 31 games in a season where as Blackburn has a maximum of 21 starts in one season.
tons of FAs still available, spring training still 2 months away. no player we've been reported to be actually in on has signed - except for soto - with us. if this is our rotation going into spring training i'll be skeptical. but have to have faith it won't be. canning as sp 5 or 6 or swingman/long relief is a nice upside play. his off speed stuff is nasty and he humbled the mets offense last summer when we played the angels. probably what caught Stearns attention in the first place.
Canning is another low risk/low upside addition to the back-end of the rotation lottery. I think that Stearns is developing his formula, which I do like, of leveraging their ability to improve performance given their coaching and the pitching lab. There are some nice fundamentals for Canning that a deep dive into BaseballSavant reveal and hopefully they can channel this towards progress in 2025. He what I hope will be an off-year in 2024 and will return to the positive trends he was making previously.
I love the idea of a Jordan Montgomery reclamation project. In addition to the indications that his awful 2024 was due to a late start, there is the Mendoza/Yankee connection which would give the latter an insight about his mental make-up (e.g. tenacity, responsiveness to coaching, work ethic, etc.) If he gets signed, I think the Mets have earned the benefit of doubt that they did a thorough due diligence and are not taking a flyer.