I feel like there is a lot of money spent here on older bench players. I do like the bullpen you put together and it's impossible not to like the rotation considering what playoff teams fielded this year. Looks like there is a typo in your final payroll but I'll guess that was supposed to be Luis Severino based on price.
Is it just me or is Soto going to get a $700 million dollar deal?
I like bringing it back with a lot of the same role players from last year, adding Soto and Chapman. I'd love a 2-3 yr deal with Walker Buehler, and if we don't resign Alonso (I would like to at 6/150), would prefer a 3 yr/75 with Christian Walker who is elite with the glove and still as productive as anyone at the position when healthy. I would also splurge on Tanner Scott if at all possible. Happy to bring back Stanek, but not sure about Maton at his price. Good in the regular season, but we need more gas coming out of the pen in the postseason. Happy with a Marte/Winker DH platoon.
I think the payroll is gonna be over $300 million.
I agree with BoomBoom, I think that it’s pretty likely that Soto will command Ohtani money, it’s just how they get there. The way Ohtani deferred so much of his contract seems unlikely for Soto, so Im just going with 10/700 or 70M AAV. Soto is not going to get 71M AAV for the kind of years that’s are coming. So Im proposing 47AAV for 15 years, for a total of 705M. That pays him until hes 40. We have a OF, then 1B, then DH forever.
My sign in works on my phone but not on my computer…. Can’t figure it out.
My suggestions:
Make Mauricio a CF. Send him to Syracuse and tell him that’s his position. No discussion. Robin Yount became a GG CF. Merrill was a SS for the Padres now is a very good CF. Mauricio’s numbers in CF play, and he has shown he has good range as a SS going for fly balls, let him learn the middle of the field.
Trade for Andrew Benintendi if it helps bring down Crochet’s trade return. Just one prospect less going over there is a win for the organization.
If they can't trade for Crochet then Buehler would a high reward/high risk to take. The conservative route to take would be Flaherty. No matter what, they should try to get Sasaki.
Goldschmidt is also a risk but for one year it would enable Baty or Mauricio more time to establish themselves better.
If Iglesias wants more than year( I don't think he does ) then Merrifield is a good choice because he is a veteran.
They should trade for Cedric Mullins. He is in his last year of arbitration. He would be a good placeholder in center field to enable Williams or Gilbert more time to establish themselves. Otherwise, Michael Taylor is a good choice.
I don't think Winker has the thump of of Pedersen or Conforto to pair with Marte.
I'm not so sure about your bullpen. Stanek, Maton and Chapman don't thrill me although they would only be one year deals. Andrew Kittredge is appealing to me..
I like th look of this a lot Brian, but I believe it is short another serious starting pitcher, and I think Goldschmidt is a waste of money, Im thinking less value than JD Martinez. I think we need to be prepared to see 100 IP or less from Senga. I’d bring in a front line FA starter as well. I dont think you can land Soto otherwise,
Great article and I like the approach. However, I would not make the Crochet trade as constituted. Giving up Williams and Tong is too much. (No problem dealing Baty and Tong.). Crochet is a promising player, no doubt, but the track record just isn’t there. I’d rather spend Cohen’s money on a proven starter. Snell has demonstrated some consistency after his ‘24 campaign. Burnes would be better.
I don’t place a huge value on draft picks. This isn’t the NFL or the NBA where the likelihood of a draft pick having material impact is realistic. Your article on the last 10 years of picks is evidence of that, Houck most recently.
Giving up prospects who have a shot at being assets (e.g. Williams, Tong) while protecting future draft picks seems inconsistent to me. To use a blackjack analogy, with the prospects we have seen our first two cards and we’re sitting on 17. But the dealer is showing 14. I like our odds. Let’s see how the hand plays out. But with the draft picks, we are folding our hand, leaving the blackjack table, walking over to the roulette table, and placing and placing a bet on a single number. (To push the analogy further, with Baty, the dealer is showing 18.)
Your article does not put up a big defense of draft picks, but I’ve seen this POV from others on and off M360 in the past and I just don’t agree.
I have zero problem with Cohen spending his money. It’s not my money. My cost of enjoying Mets baseball will not change if the Mets have a $1B annual payroll. The only negative for me is the slight sting of legitimate criticism that the Mets “bought” their championship. After a 38 year drought, I can live with that.
Also, I saw pitcher Francisco Rodriguez at $20M here with no discussion in the article. I assumed that I was having a “senior moment” but cannot find any simple explanation. What’s that all about? Did K-Rod make a stealth comeback? Or is this K-Rod junior, whose second generation exploits have been overshadowed by more prominent offspring (e.g. Tatis, Guerrero, Bichette, Witt et al?)
You need to have draft picks both to bring inexpensive talent to the majors and to have desirable trade chits - which is why you don't give away high picks without it being worth your while. Losing your top pick for Juan Soto is fine. Losing it for just about anyone else in this free agent class is not.
I'm the one with the senior moment. It should have said Edwin Diaz. I'll fix that momentarily.
I concur about the source of young talent coming mostly from draft picks. However, I don’t think the impact of losing a R1 or R2 pick is as significant as it would be in other sports. A quantity of picks in the mid-late rounds seems like a good. For me, losing a pick for Soto, Burnes, Bregman or Adames and possibly Fried are acceptable, but I would draw my line in the dirt there. I’d be fine with Walker if Alonso leaves and Bregman and Adames go elsewhere.
Here’s a research report that I just found. Interesting study. It shows that on average, those drafted 1-5 in R1 average about 13.3 in career WAR. Those drafted later in R1 averaged less than 5. I cannot easily figure out which picks the Mets would lose for the aforementioned FAs, but I would imagine that the projected average career WAR for any would be less than 5. So the bet would be if the Mets could count on getting more than a 5 WAR from any of those FAs, and I think the answer is a resounding yes. Plus, this WAR begins in 2025 whereas for the draft picks, it’s probably a ‘26 at best and probably a ‘27 start.
That 13.3 of WAR would cost you somewhere around 106 million on the free agent market. It's fine if you're getting Juan Soto. It's another thing if you're getting Luis Severino. And a bunch of those guys you listed are going to want five-plus years. And especially for the pitchers, I'd be surprised if David Stearns offered a deal that long and lose a high draft pick to do so.
That 13.3 of WAR is for a #1-5 pick and it falls fairly quickly after that. I don’t think a top 5 pick is on the table here. The next cohort, 6-10, had about 10 WAR for a career average, or about $80M. It’s a judgment call in the end, but I’d put my money on the known quantity and feel good about being able to draft well in the lower rounds.
BTW, that recap of the last 10 years of the Mets draft was outstanding. I wonder what story the last 10 years of international signings would tell.
I forgot to mention that I think the Mets need to sign another significant bat (if Alonso leaves) to have a legit shot at Soto. Batting in front of Judge with the short RF porch in the Bronx surely has to be attractive to Soto, despite how he’s being portrayed as just taking the highest bid. But it’s not just for his personal glory, he’s going to make a call which team will win more WS over the next 10-13 years. The Yanks have some serious assets, like Judge and Cole, locked up long-term. It’s going to come down to Cohen convincing Soto that the Mets are going to be a dynasty, with the latter being the centerpiece. I like that bet, but Cohen will need to add at least another marquee piece, if not two.
I feel like there is a lot of money spent here on older bench players. I do like the bullpen you put together and it's impossible not to like the rotation considering what playoff teams fielded this year. Looks like there is a typo in your final payroll but I'll guess that was supposed to be Luis Severino based on price.
Merrifield and Michael Taylor are the bench players and while they're older, they're not that expensive.
And no typo (that I'm aware of) and not Severino on this roster
Francisco Rodriguez $21.50?
That's the figure that Cot's has for him
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1npn_xiAwVyCUkZf6t2ivPtqyM-uF3IEcXcrsDT_BTvc/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900
Is it just me or is Soto going to get a $700 million dollar deal?
I like bringing it back with a lot of the same role players from last year, adding Soto and Chapman. I'd love a 2-3 yr deal with Walker Buehler, and if we don't resign Alonso (I would like to at 6/150), would prefer a 3 yr/75 with Christian Walker who is elite with the glove and still as productive as anyone at the position when healthy. I would also splurge on Tanner Scott if at all possible. Happy to bring back Stanek, but not sure about Maton at his price. Good in the regular season, but we need more gas coming out of the pen in the postseason. Happy with a Marte/Winker DH platoon.
I think the payroll is gonna be over $300 million.
Certainly possible the bidding reaches that level with Soto.
It's very realistic the payroll could be above $300 million, which would make adding a starter like Buehler a good idea.
I wanted to avoid multi-year deals to keep spots open for Clifford and Drew Gilbert.
I agree with BoomBoom, I think that it’s pretty likely that Soto will command Ohtani money, it’s just how they get there. The way Ohtani deferred so much of his contract seems unlikely for Soto, so Im just going with 10/700 or 70M AAV. Soto is not going to get 71M AAV for the kind of years that’s are coming. So Im proposing 47AAV for 15 years, for a total of 705M. That pays him until hes 40. We have a OF, then 1B, then DH forever.
I hope Cohen isn’t a drunken sailor this off season.
My sign in works on my phone but not on my computer…. Can’t figure it out.
My suggestions:
Make Mauricio a CF. Send him to Syracuse and tell him that’s his position. No discussion. Robin Yount became a GG CF. Merrill was a SS for the Padres now is a very good CF. Mauricio’s numbers in CF play, and he has shown he has good range as a SS going for fly balls, let him learn the middle of the field.
Trade for Andrew Benintendi if it helps bring down Crochet’s trade return. Just one prospect less going over there is a win for the organization.
Trade Marte for Montgomery.
Brian, this was a thoughtful approach.
If they can't trade for Crochet then Buehler would a high reward/high risk to take. The conservative route to take would be Flaherty. No matter what, they should try to get Sasaki.
Goldschmidt is also a risk but for one year it would enable Baty or Mauricio more time to establish themselves better.
If Iglesias wants more than year( I don't think he does ) then Merrifield is a good choice because he is a veteran.
They should trade for Cedric Mullins. He is in his last year of arbitration. He would be a good placeholder in center field to enable Williams or Gilbert more time to establish themselves. Otherwise, Michael Taylor is a good choice.
I don't think Winker has the thump of of Pedersen or Conforto to pair with Marte.
I'm not so sure about your bullpen. Stanek, Maton and Chapman don't thrill me although they would only be one year deals. Andrew Kittredge is appealing to me..
I'm a big Pederson fan.
Money's not really an object yet Pederson is likely going to be around 3-5X more expensive than Winker.
I like th look of this a lot Brian, but I believe it is short another serious starting pitcher, and I think Goldschmidt is a waste of money, Im thinking less value than JD Martinez. I think we need to be prepared to see 100 IP or less from Senga. I’d bring in a front line FA starter as well. I dont think you can land Soto otherwise,
Great article and I like the approach. However, I would not make the Crochet trade as constituted. Giving up Williams and Tong is too much. (No problem dealing Baty and Tong.). Crochet is a promising player, no doubt, but the track record just isn’t there. I’d rather spend Cohen’s money on a proven starter. Snell has demonstrated some consistency after his ‘24 campaign. Burnes would be better.
I don’t place a huge value on draft picks. This isn’t the NFL or the NBA where the likelihood of a draft pick having material impact is realistic. Your article on the last 10 years of picks is evidence of that, Houck most recently.
Giving up prospects who have a shot at being assets (e.g. Williams, Tong) while protecting future draft picks seems inconsistent to me. To use a blackjack analogy, with the prospects we have seen our first two cards and we’re sitting on 17. But the dealer is showing 14. I like our odds. Let’s see how the hand plays out. But with the draft picks, we are folding our hand, leaving the blackjack table, walking over to the roulette table, and placing and placing a bet on a single number. (To push the analogy further, with Baty, the dealer is showing 18.)
Your article does not put up a big defense of draft picks, but I’ve seen this POV from others on and off M360 in the past and I just don’t agree.
I have zero problem with Cohen spending his money. It’s not my money. My cost of enjoying Mets baseball will not change if the Mets have a $1B annual payroll. The only negative for me is the slight sting of legitimate criticism that the Mets “bought” their championship. After a 38 year drought, I can live with that.
Also, I saw pitcher Francisco Rodriguez at $20M here with no discussion in the article. I assumed that I was having a “senior moment” but cannot find any simple explanation. What’s that all about? Did K-Rod make a stealth comeback? Or is this K-Rod junior, whose second generation exploits have been overshadowed by more prominent offspring (e.g. Tatis, Guerrero, Bichette, Witt et al?)
You need to have draft picks both to bring inexpensive talent to the majors and to have desirable trade chits - which is why you don't give away high picks without it being worth your while. Losing your top pick for Juan Soto is fine. Losing it for just about anyone else in this free agent class is not.
I'm the one with the senior moment. It should have said Edwin Diaz. I'll fix that momentarily.
I concur about the source of young talent coming mostly from draft picks. However, I don’t think the impact of losing a R1 or R2 pick is as significant as it would be in other sports. A quantity of picks in the mid-late rounds seems like a good. For me, losing a pick for Soto, Burnes, Bregman or Adames and possibly Fried are acceptable, but I would draw my line in the dirt there. I’d be fine with Walker if Alonso leaves and Bregman and Adames go elsewhere.
Here’s a research report that I just found. Interesting study. It shows that on average, those drafted 1-5 in R1 average about 13.3 in career WAR. Those drafted later in R1 averaged less than 5. I cannot easily figure out which picks the Mets would lose for the aforementioned FAs, but I would imagine that the projected average career WAR for any would be less than 5. So the bet would be if the Mets could count on getting more than a 5 WAR from any of those FAs, and I think the answer is a resounding yes. Plus, this WAR begins in 2025 whereas for the draft picks, it’s probably a ‘26 at best and probably a ‘27 start.
Here’s a link to the report:
https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586
That 13.3 of WAR would cost you somewhere around 106 million on the free agent market. It's fine if you're getting Juan Soto. It's another thing if you're getting Luis Severino. And a bunch of those guys you listed are going to want five-plus years. And especially for the pitchers, I'd be surprised if David Stearns offered a deal that long and lose a high draft pick to do so.
That 13.3 of WAR is for a #1-5 pick and it falls fairly quickly after that. I don’t think a top 5 pick is on the table here. The next cohort, 6-10, had about 10 WAR for a career average, or about $80M. It’s a judgment call in the end, but I’d put my money on the known quantity and feel good about being able to draft well in the lower rounds.
BTW, that recap of the last 10 years of the Mets draft was outstanding. I wonder what story the last 10 years of international signings would tell.
I forgot to mention that I think the Mets need to sign another significant bat (if Alonso leaves) to have a legit shot at Soto. Batting in front of Judge with the short RF porch in the Bronx surely has to be attractive to Soto, despite how he’s being portrayed as just taking the highest bid. But it’s not just for his personal glory, he’s going to make a call which team will win more WS over the next 10-13 years. The Yanks have some serious assets, like Judge and Cole, locked up long-term. It’s going to come down to Cohen convincing Soto that the Mets are going to be a dynasty, with the latter being the centerpiece. I like that bet, but Cohen will need to add at least another marquee piece, if not two.