Brian, sorry, but I don’t prefer your team. Starting with the obvious, no one will say that Alonso isn’t a good player. The question was how long he will remain one. For two years, that’s an A+. As for Montas, some whispers have it that Stearns’ Brewers friends told him something and he wanted to get in front of the curve and sign him before word got out. He did have 70 strikeouts in 57 innings with Milwaukee and that’s impressive. Only blemish is the 10 homeruns in 11 starts, but that Citifield can help with; maybe a “B-“ there. A starting pitcher for $4MM is fine in today’s game but both Canning and Blackburn, we will see. After all, Rich Hill still keeps getting $4MM contract offers.
That's okay Gus, civil disagreement is a good thing!
I know people are dug in on Alonso and no one is changing their minds if they think what he did last year was good production. Nothing would thrill me more if Alonso went out and had the best year of his career. I just wouldn't wager on it happening. And while two years is better than the seven years he might have been hoping for, unless he changes the downward trajectory of his career the past two seasons, those two years are going to be ugly.
As for Montas, what he did with the Brewers is definitely encouraging. It would be great to get that guy for 25 or so starts.
Finally, between 2015-2023, Hill was never worth less than $5.5 million and he turned in a season worth $14.3 million as recently as 2022 But he pitched just 3.2 innings last year and is currently a free agent. It seems he's reached the end of the line, as far as being an MLB pitcher. Wouldn't surprise me if he wound up in the Atlantic League, trying to catch on with a team. If so, I'll be rooting for him.
Bowden is a charismatic blowhard. His best work is co-host (with Jim Duquette) of an MLB radio show called “Front Office,” which I really enjoy. I remember when he said that Yasiel Puig was the next Mickey Mantle. Anyway…
I preface my thoughts with a big caveat that has zero to do with any metric whatsoever. It is clear this team is working extremely hard to build a strong culture of support and personal accountability. Part of this is team “fit” becuase we all know playing the game is not a strat-o-matic exercise. So my grade show some changes to yours. I appreciate your approach, but it doesnt translate for me.
Montas B-
Holmes C-
Soto A+
Canning F
Manaea B-
Blackburn F
Winker B-
Minter B-
Stanek B
Alonso A
I like the Montas move as an innings eater with hopeful upside. I really think there is an issue with starting pitcher IP, which is why the Holmes experiment does not do much for me. I think the Canning and Blackburn signings are wasteful, especially if it means Butto gets slammed in the pen (as it seems will be), instead of SP5/6. For me Winker brings a lot of needed energy, glue, and passable production. I like retaining Pete as he is a critical part of energy and he has demonstrated power the team needs in the engine room. I think the Soto, Alonso, Vientos triad is quite something else. I said many times that I want no part of Goldschmidt. Chapman is a cancer on the game. I think Buehler would have been smart to sign.
The Holmes/Montas thing is very interesting to me. I guess it's a quality vs. quantity type of argument. Would you rather have 110 IP at a 3.33 ERA or 170 IP at a 4.25 ERA?
FWIW, Kyle Gibson had 169.2 IP and a 4.24 ERA last year and had a 1.5 fWAR. Jose Soriano had 113 IP and a 3.42 ERA and had a 1.7 fWAR so they can be relatively close.
Yet, Blake Snell had 104 IP and a 3.12 ERA and had a 3.1 fWAR. Can Holmes split the difference between Soriano and Snell and put up a 2.4 fWAR? I'm thinking he can but I won't argue with others who feel differently.
With a six-man rotation, it's my opinion that quality beats quantity.
Brian, you make a great point on the value of innings. Per your references, I would take the guy with many more innings and 1 earned run more per nine innings. I do not think we should judge as we used to, because these days, teams are trying to figure out how to cover innings. Thus, a pitcher that averages 6 innings and three ER per start, is basically a quality start per outing. If a pitcher can give you a touch over 4 ERA but 169 innings, I see value there. Much more than a pitcher that goes 4.2 innings per start and gives up a 2 runs. That 2 innings per outing is an extra relief pitcher, at least!
The fact is this is an innings played limited game. If you take 50 less innings from a starter, the fact is you need to add the ERA of the relievers to cover those IP *and* the taxation on the pen which leads to a cascade of effects, none of which are good. I’d much rather have had Burnes give IP *and* ERA, which is why I think think not getting a front liner in to help the rotation was a big mistake. I view the rotation as a major issue confronting this team. It is the biggest high wire act of Stearns PBO time in Queens.
Last year, Mets starters finished with the 5th-most IP in MLB. It would be great if they could be in the top third of the league again in 2025.
The five starters who began the year in the rotation made 116 starts and finished with 681.1 IP. That's what the six starters will need to provide this year. That's about 19 starts and 114 innings per pitcher.
The top five starters overall on the club made 130 starts and finished with 733 IP. That's about 22 starts and 122 innings per pitcher for the top six.
We hope that Manaea, Peterson and Senga exceed both the starts and IP mentioned above. Let's give them 150, 140 and 130, respectively. That's 420 IP, meaning that the next three starters need to give 313 IP to match the 733 IP of the top five starters overall in 2024 - when the starters had the fifth-most in the majors. I just don't see the issue of the guy who should finish fifth on the club in innings (Holmes) having around 110.
Just to continue our step down, let's say that the top six SP in innings for the Mets (never mind the order) have 150, 140, 130, 120, 110 and 100 IP at the end of the year. That's 750 IP. Which would leave around 692 IP for the depth starters and relievers. Last year, starters 6-12 delivered 162 innings, while the relievers gave 549.2 innings.
So, that's fewer innings for the depth starters and relievers to cover. And this year's pen should be better than last year's.
I don't expect it to come anywhere close to the perfect 10-inning step down listed above. But we need to have a framework in place and this is as good of a place to start as any. It won't be a true 6-man rotation, as they likely will just use 5 starters early in the year with the days off. Which means the sixth guy likely won't reach 100 IP. But it also means the top starters will likely throw more innings.
However much they use the 6-man - my guess is if Senga stays healthy it'll be at least 80% of the time - it will be impossible for any pitcher to reach the 32 starts that Manaea had last year. Senga had 29 starts in 2023, which is probably the upper limit. Anyway, the point is that the Mets don't need their 4th starter to throw 170 innings. The math works quite well getting significantly fewer innings than that from their fourth or fifth starter.
Great analysis Brian. I can't disagree with any of your thinking and setting up the framework to get innings is a great discussion. An alternative way of setting this up is to begin with number of starts instead of number of innings. I'd like my #1 starter and #2 starters to each get 30 starts, which they should be able to do even if they use a six man rotation. Let's set up the third and fourth starters to each get 24 starts and the fifth and sixth guys to each get 20. That is 148 games covered by the top 6 starters. They'll need to cover just 14 with other spot starts (bring back Julio Teheran for one of them???) If each of the top 5 starters can average 6 innings per start, that is 768 innings and another 100 by starter 6 (@ 5 innings/start) gets the top 6 starters to 868. This may be unattainable, but Severino, Manaea, and Quintana all had over 170 IP last year averaging very close to that 6 innings per start. And in my obligatory plug for Griffin Canning, he also threw over 170 innings last year. It remains to be seen whether Senga can get to that number - he sat at 166 in his rookie year in 2023, so he may be a stretch.
While I believe the starters are going to be okay, we have to acknowledge how difficult it will be to get two starters to reach 30 starts with a six-man rotation.
Besides the raw math (162/6 = 27) there's also the issues with these particular pitchers. Senga made only 1 start last year, Peterson's never made more than 21 starts, Canning's made 30 starts just one time and had a 5.19 ERA while doing it, Montas has reached that level just 2X in a career that dates back to 2017, Holmes is converting from a reliever.
I like what you’ve done here. Buehler was #1 on my list once it became obvious that Stearns wasn’t shopping in the super-premium section and Joc would have been a fantastic addition. I think I would have gone with Walker instead of Goldy and economized more on the pen. All that said, I do like the current roster heading into ST. There’s a lot more depth this year versus last and the roster feels quite a bit more settled. It’s all part of the evolution towards the sustainable excellence that Stearns and Cohen have promised. The foundation is forming, the philosophy is gelling, and with a few more solid additions and prospects developing, the future seems bright and getting brighter.
I’d like some advice. I learned yesterday that the Mets are opening in Houston. The last time the Mets were in Houston, I had to deal with Hurricane Harvey… the Rainy Knight, not the Dark Knight. So…. I decided to look into tickets and found a pair of tickets on Stub Hub, front row by the Mets dugout, for $700 before fees, and that won’t include hotel. The whole day will cost $900 or so. Is this worth it?
That’s a lot of covers amigo. Im shocked that a couple tickets even for opening day will cost a grand. If it’s your only planned time to see them live might be fun, but it always struck me Minute Maid had good seats all over?
Yes, but I have only sat front row at a baseball game one time in my life. It was when an usher took my dad and I down to the front at an empty Shea Stadium for twenty bucks and I got Joel Youngblood’s autograph and saying hi to him. That’s all I remember from that day.
But, while I have been to Minute Maid and there are good seats, I really wanted to say hi to the guys because I’m sure they will be in a good mood and it might be more joyous.
It’s kind of an opening day thing that may not be available to me again, but yes, that ALOT of covers.
Heres the deal then, do it. Trust me here, with that last message youve already made the decision. When I did that here in 2015 asking you guys about getting tix for the Reds game in Cincy when there was a real chance the Mets would clinch the East (Im wearing the NL East Chaps t-shirt right now!), everyone said yes, and while it was a huge drive and cost plenty of money (I had to buy 2 seats but went alone) I have never once thought it was the wrong move. Do it Gus, take pix, and write us a nice article here with some pictures!
It’s game 3. I guess I made a mistake or they aren’t available. Or, just take different tickets for opening day? I do remember the conversation about Cincy and the memories will last forever………… what do you think, game 1 a few rows back, game 3 in the front row (to quote Bob Uecher, RIP), or put the money towards better things?
Not sure it matters, but sitting right in the first row would be pretty fancy. On the other hand, you probably get Senga or Manaea game 1, and by game 3 it might already be Megill on his first call up!!! LOLOLOL
Late to the party - our power was out for about 3 hours - but I would look to see if the tickets were cheaper a few rows back. As long as no one was walking in front of you, those will still be great seats.
I like Stearns philosophy about short term contracts. I think though that he signed Montas, Holmes and Canning to soon in December and there were better options.. Buehler signed 12/28 at $18.5m and if sucked they could have paid him $3M exercising a mutual option. If Montas sucks then they're stuck in him for 2 years at $34m. Buehler is the better deal with a higher ceiling.
If Holmes wanted to be a starter than maybe he wasn't appealing for many teams. I would have revisited his free agency much later in the offseason. There was no reason to sign Canning so early or never. Blackburn was an arbitration case so they can cut him at a reduced rate if he doesn't work out.
Alsono was the best first baseman available in free agency. At 2 years, I can understand the signing even if it isn't of value signing. Pedersen and Goldschmidt could have produced more value with $30m in 2025 but Pedersen has a three year contract and he is exclusively a platoon player.
For one year, Winker is a good signing to platoon with Marte at DH. It doesn't wow me but the two of them should be above average at DH. Next year the DH will open up.
I will join Tex's civil disagreement here and say that I actually prefer Stearn's signings to Brian's with one exception. I am not sure why Walker Buehler was not on the Mets radar. I get that he was hurt a lot last year, but he showed what kind of pitcher he could be in the World Series.
Although with that all said, I think the Montas signing could work out as well as Severino did last year. He threw quite well for Milwaukee in 2H2024. And what others may discount, but I consider, is that apparently he and Manaea are quite good friends. Having that past history and friendship has some intangible WAR (my new term, i'll call it iWAR for now).
I will go on the record as one of the few Mets fans that actually don't dislike the Canning signing. With no real reason or basis to go on, I make a prediction that we will be glad we got him by the end of the year. Actually, my reason is that he had a good healthy year last year (171 innings) and is still reportedly healthy. He came in praising the lab and Hefner stating that he wanted to become better. Something makes me believe that will happen.
Blackburn is a wait and see - he was under contract for 2025 (arb) when they traded for him in July 2024, so he is not really a signing. I think with his late 2024 injuries, he has dropped below Canning and Megill on the SP depth chart.
Winker at 7.5 vs. Pederson at 18.5 is a slam dunk. Pederson had basically a career year last year in the middle of a very strong Arizona offense. He has pretty terrible for four years prior. Which one shows up? You could make the same argument for Winker, but he brought that intangible energy with him after the trade last year and seems to be a great fit with the chemistry of the team. The are not $11 Million different players - both platoon players who don't hit lefties well.
You all know I am a Pete Alonso fan. Pete provides much more to the line up that Goldschmidt can, particularly at their respective ages of 30 and 37. There is also the 'what have you done for me recently' discussion that enters. Goldy's .716 OPS and 98 OPS+ was the worst of his career. I get it that he was in a terrible situation in St. Louis, but bringing him into the pitcher's park named Citi Field would probably not help anything.
Chapman is just too old. As some of the other comments allude to, the pen needs include guys that can eat innings. Chapman has been in more games than the number of innings he has thrown every year since 2016. Being left-handed is really the only good fit, but the days of the LOOGY are gone.
Hendricks. see comments about Goldschmidt above (what have you done recently? 2024 was a dumpster fire for him).
I grade the signings of Stanek and Alonso higher - probably an A- and and a B+, respectively.
I am OK with Minter in a pretty light LH relief market (other than Tanner Scott, who didn't make a lot of $$ sense)
I'm feeling pretty good about this team. There are going to be a few unhappy guys if everybody stays healthy and cuts have to be made, but the depth is great.
I like the concept of iWAR. We fans are limited to what we can read and observe and the intangibles are hard to discern from afar. In some other sports, basketball in particular, these qualities are both more readily apparent and more in the mainstream discussion. “Team fit” is a critical attribute. But this is not part of the conversation in baseball, except in extreme cases (e.g. Machado, Baez on the negative; Iglesias, Posey on the positive.). But I think it is very much part of the discussions inside the inner circle of the management teams making decisions. This often gets abstracted to a simple “good guy in the clubhouse” but it’s more than that. It’s about coachability, willingness to put the team first, commitment to the team vision, etc.). I think Winker fits the bill here although I would have liked them to sign Joc.
In addition to the 'clubhouse' intangible, there is also the line-up intangible. If they have a hitter like Alonso hitting behind Soto, do you think Soto will see better pitches than if Nimmo or even Vientos follows him? I think Alonso raises Soto up - more of his OPS will be from the slugging that from the OBP. Without a feared hitter (Judge??) behind him, Soto would probably walk about 200 times.
I also personally believe Soto will automatically raise the WAR of Lindor by hitting behind him. Lindor could score 140 runs this year.
Baseball is such a team sport that the individual metrics placed on players don't really tell the whole story. And as you point out, these guys have to spend a lot of time together for about 7 or 8 months. It really helps in the end if they actually like each other and form those bonds.
Excellent point about the line-up. I bet there’s some way to quantify this along the lines the plus/minus stat in the NBA. The concept of protection has been much debated but I completely agree with it for Soto. He’s otherwise turn into some version of Ted WIlliams or Barry Bonds (with less HRs.) Hopefully Alonso doesn’t slide further or that Vientos emerges as a reliable force if Pete falters.
That C- that Brian hung on Montas looks about right . . er.. maybe a little generous? Ugh. I hope this the injuries don't pile up. But you gotta love the depth.
Brian, sorry, but I don’t prefer your team. Starting with the obvious, no one will say that Alonso isn’t a good player. The question was how long he will remain one. For two years, that’s an A+. As for Montas, some whispers have it that Stearns’ Brewers friends told him something and he wanted to get in front of the curve and sign him before word got out. He did have 70 strikeouts in 57 innings with Milwaukee and that’s impressive. Only blemish is the 10 homeruns in 11 starts, but that Citifield can help with; maybe a “B-“ there. A starting pitcher for $4MM is fine in today’s game but both Canning and Blackburn, we will see. After all, Rich Hill still keeps getting $4MM contract offers.
That's okay Gus, civil disagreement is a good thing!
I know people are dug in on Alonso and no one is changing their minds if they think what he did last year was good production. Nothing would thrill me more if Alonso went out and had the best year of his career. I just wouldn't wager on it happening. And while two years is better than the seven years he might have been hoping for, unless he changes the downward trajectory of his career the past two seasons, those two years are going to be ugly.
As for Montas, what he did with the Brewers is definitely encouraging. It would be great to get that guy for 25 or so starts.
Finally, between 2015-2023, Hill was never worth less than $5.5 million and he turned in a season worth $14.3 million as recently as 2022 But he pitched just 3.2 innings last year and is currently a free agent. It seems he's reached the end of the line, as far as being an MLB pitcher. Wouldn't surprise me if he wound up in the Atlantic League, trying to catch on with a team. If so, I'll be rooting for him.
This will not be a civil disagreement but a bloody fWAR!!! LOLLLLLLLL, I enjoyed that!!!
I do agree on Bowden…
That's funny Gus! Thanks for the laugh.
Bowden is a charismatic blowhard. His best work is co-host (with Jim Duquette) of an MLB radio show called “Front Office,” which I really enjoy. I remember when he said that Yasiel Puig was the next Mickey Mantle. Anyway…
I preface my thoughts with a big caveat that has zero to do with any metric whatsoever. It is clear this team is working extremely hard to build a strong culture of support and personal accountability. Part of this is team “fit” becuase we all know playing the game is not a strat-o-matic exercise. So my grade show some changes to yours. I appreciate your approach, but it doesnt translate for me.
Montas B-
Holmes C-
Soto A+
Canning F
Manaea B-
Blackburn F
Winker B-
Minter B-
Stanek B
Alonso A
I like the Montas move as an innings eater with hopeful upside. I really think there is an issue with starting pitcher IP, which is why the Holmes experiment does not do much for me. I think the Canning and Blackburn signings are wasteful, especially if it means Butto gets slammed in the pen (as it seems will be), instead of SP5/6. For me Winker brings a lot of needed energy, glue, and passable production. I like retaining Pete as he is a critical part of energy and he has demonstrated power the team needs in the engine room. I think the Soto, Alonso, Vientos triad is quite something else. I said many times that I want no part of Goldschmidt. Chapman is a cancer on the game. I think Buehler would have been smart to sign.
The Holmes/Montas thing is very interesting to me. I guess it's a quality vs. quantity type of argument. Would you rather have 110 IP at a 3.33 ERA or 170 IP at a 4.25 ERA?
FWIW, Kyle Gibson had 169.2 IP and a 4.24 ERA last year and had a 1.5 fWAR. Jose Soriano had 113 IP and a 3.42 ERA and had a 1.7 fWAR so they can be relatively close.
Yet, Blake Snell had 104 IP and a 3.12 ERA and had a 3.1 fWAR. Can Holmes split the difference between Soriano and Snell and put up a 2.4 fWAR? I'm thinking he can but I won't argue with others who feel differently.
With a six-man rotation, it's my opinion that quality beats quantity.
Brian, you make a great point on the value of innings. Per your references, I would take the guy with many more innings and 1 earned run more per nine innings. I do not think we should judge as we used to, because these days, teams are trying to figure out how to cover innings. Thus, a pitcher that averages 6 innings and three ER per start, is basically a quality start per outing. If a pitcher can give you a touch over 4 ERA but 169 innings, I see value there. Much more than a pitcher that goes 4.2 innings per start and gives up a 2 runs. That 2 innings per outing is an extra relief pitcher, at least!
I totally agree. A starter that can go 6+ regularly with a high 4 ERA may be more valuable than a guy that averages 4+ to 5+ with a low 4 era.
The fact is this is an innings played limited game. If you take 50 less innings from a starter, the fact is you need to add the ERA of the relievers to cover those IP *and* the taxation on the pen which leads to a cascade of effects, none of which are good. I’d much rather have had Burnes give IP *and* ERA, which is why I think think not getting a front liner in to help the rotation was a big mistake. I view the rotation as a major issue confronting this team. It is the biggest high wire act of Stearns PBO time in Queens.
Last year, Mets starters finished with the 5th-most IP in MLB. It would be great if they could be in the top third of the league again in 2025.
The five starters who began the year in the rotation made 116 starts and finished with 681.1 IP. That's what the six starters will need to provide this year. That's about 19 starts and 114 innings per pitcher.
The top five starters overall on the club made 130 starts and finished with 733 IP. That's about 22 starts and 122 innings per pitcher for the top six.
We hope that Manaea, Peterson and Senga exceed both the starts and IP mentioned above. Let's give them 150, 140 and 130, respectively. That's 420 IP, meaning that the next three starters need to give 313 IP to match the 733 IP of the top five starters overall in 2024 - when the starters had the fifth-most in the majors. I just don't see the issue of the guy who should finish fifth on the club in innings (Holmes) having around 110.
Just to continue our step down, let's say that the top six SP in innings for the Mets (never mind the order) have 150, 140, 130, 120, 110 and 100 IP at the end of the year. That's 750 IP. Which would leave around 692 IP for the depth starters and relievers. Last year, starters 6-12 delivered 162 innings, while the relievers gave 549.2 innings.
So, that's fewer innings for the depth starters and relievers to cover. And this year's pen should be better than last year's.
I don't expect it to come anywhere close to the perfect 10-inning step down listed above. But we need to have a framework in place and this is as good of a place to start as any. It won't be a true 6-man rotation, as they likely will just use 5 starters early in the year with the days off. Which means the sixth guy likely won't reach 100 IP. But it also means the top starters will likely throw more innings.
However much they use the 6-man - my guess is if Senga stays healthy it'll be at least 80% of the time - it will be impossible for any pitcher to reach the 32 starts that Manaea had last year. Senga had 29 starts in 2023, which is probably the upper limit. Anyway, the point is that the Mets don't need their 4th starter to throw 170 innings. The math works quite well getting significantly fewer innings than that from their fourth or fifth starter.
Great analysis Brian. I can't disagree with any of your thinking and setting up the framework to get innings is a great discussion. An alternative way of setting this up is to begin with number of starts instead of number of innings. I'd like my #1 starter and #2 starters to each get 30 starts, which they should be able to do even if they use a six man rotation. Let's set up the third and fourth starters to each get 24 starts and the fifth and sixth guys to each get 20. That is 148 games covered by the top 6 starters. They'll need to cover just 14 with other spot starts (bring back Julio Teheran for one of them???) If each of the top 5 starters can average 6 innings per start, that is 768 innings and another 100 by starter 6 (@ 5 innings/start) gets the top 6 starters to 868. This may be unattainable, but Severino, Manaea, and Quintana all had over 170 IP last year averaging very close to that 6 innings per start. And in my obligatory plug for Griffin Canning, he also threw over 170 innings last year. It remains to be seen whether Senga can get to that number - he sat at 166 in his rookie year in 2023, so he may be a stretch.
While I believe the starters are going to be okay, we have to acknowledge how difficult it will be to get two starters to reach 30 starts with a six-man rotation.
Besides the raw math (162/6 = 27) there's also the issues with these particular pitchers. Senga made only 1 start last year, Peterson's never made more than 21 starts, Canning's made 30 starts just one time and had a 5.19 ERA while doing it, Montas has reached that level just 2X in a career that dates back to 2017, Holmes is converting from a reliever.
I'll have more on a 6-man rotation on Thursday.
I like what you’ve done here. Buehler was #1 on my list once it became obvious that Stearns wasn’t shopping in the super-premium section and Joc would have been a fantastic addition. I think I would have gone with Walker instead of Goldy and economized more on the pen. All that said, I do like the current roster heading into ST. There’s a lot more depth this year versus last and the roster feels quite a bit more settled. It’s all part of the evolution towards the sustainable excellence that Stearns and Cohen have promised. The foundation is forming, the philosophy is gelling, and with a few more solid additions and prospects developing, the future seems bright and getting brighter.
I’d like some advice. I learned yesterday that the Mets are opening in Houston. The last time the Mets were in Houston, I had to deal with Hurricane Harvey… the Rainy Knight, not the Dark Knight. So…. I decided to look into tickets and found a pair of tickets on Stub Hub, front row by the Mets dugout, for $700 before fees, and that won’t include hotel. The whole day will cost $900 or so. Is this worth it?
That’s a lot of covers amigo. Im shocked that a couple tickets even for opening day will cost a grand. If it’s your only planned time to see them live might be fun, but it always struck me Minute Maid had good seats all over?
Yes, but I have only sat front row at a baseball game one time in my life. It was when an usher took my dad and I down to the front at an empty Shea Stadium for twenty bucks and I got Joel Youngblood’s autograph and saying hi to him. That’s all I remember from that day.
But, while I have been to Minute Maid and there are good seats, I really wanted to say hi to the guys because I’m sure they will be in a good mood and it might be more joyous.
It’s kind of an opening day thing that may not be available to me again, but yes, that ALOT of covers.
Heres the deal then, do it. Trust me here, with that last message youve already made the decision. When I did that here in 2015 asking you guys about getting tix for the Reds game in Cincy when there was a real chance the Mets would clinch the East (Im wearing the NL East Chaps t-shirt right now!), everyone said yes, and while it was a huge drive and cost plenty of money (I had to buy 2 seats but went alone) I have never once thought it was the wrong move. Do it Gus, take pix, and write us a nice article here with some pictures!
It’s game 3. I guess I made a mistake or they aren’t available. Or, just take different tickets for opening day? I do remember the conversation about Cincy and the memories will last forever………… what do you think, game 1 a few rows back, game 3 in the front row (to quote Bob Uecher, RIP), or put the money towards better things?
Not sure it matters, but sitting right in the first row would be pretty fancy. On the other hand, you probably get Senga or Manaea game 1, and by game 3 it might already be Megill on his first call up!!! LOLOLOL
Late to the party - our power was out for about 3 hours - but I would look to see if the tickets were cheaper a few rows back. As long as no one was walking in front of you, those will still be great seats.
I like Stearns philosophy about short term contracts. I think though that he signed Montas, Holmes and Canning to soon in December and there were better options.. Buehler signed 12/28 at $18.5m and if sucked they could have paid him $3M exercising a mutual option. If Montas sucks then they're stuck in him for 2 years at $34m. Buehler is the better deal with a higher ceiling.
If Holmes wanted to be a starter than maybe he wasn't appealing for many teams. I would have revisited his free agency much later in the offseason. There was no reason to sign Canning so early or never. Blackburn was an arbitration case so they can cut him at a reduced rate if he doesn't work out.
Alsono was the best first baseman available in free agency. At 2 years, I can understand the signing even if it isn't of value signing. Pedersen and Goldschmidt could have produced more value with $30m in 2025 but Pedersen has a three year contract and he is exclusively a platoon player.
For one year, Winker is a good signing to platoon with Marte at DH. It doesn't wow me but the two of them should be above average at DH. Next year the DH will open up.
I will join Tex's civil disagreement here and say that I actually prefer Stearn's signings to Brian's with one exception. I am not sure why Walker Buehler was not on the Mets radar. I get that he was hurt a lot last year, but he showed what kind of pitcher he could be in the World Series.
Although with that all said, I think the Montas signing could work out as well as Severino did last year. He threw quite well for Milwaukee in 2H2024. And what others may discount, but I consider, is that apparently he and Manaea are quite good friends. Having that past history and friendship has some intangible WAR (my new term, i'll call it iWAR for now).
I will go on the record as one of the few Mets fans that actually don't dislike the Canning signing. With no real reason or basis to go on, I make a prediction that we will be glad we got him by the end of the year. Actually, my reason is that he had a good healthy year last year (171 innings) and is still reportedly healthy. He came in praising the lab and Hefner stating that he wanted to become better. Something makes me believe that will happen.
Blackburn is a wait and see - he was under contract for 2025 (arb) when they traded for him in July 2024, so he is not really a signing. I think with his late 2024 injuries, he has dropped below Canning and Megill on the SP depth chart.
Winker at 7.5 vs. Pederson at 18.5 is a slam dunk. Pederson had basically a career year last year in the middle of a very strong Arizona offense. He has pretty terrible for four years prior. Which one shows up? You could make the same argument for Winker, but he brought that intangible energy with him after the trade last year and seems to be a great fit with the chemistry of the team. The are not $11 Million different players - both platoon players who don't hit lefties well.
You all know I am a Pete Alonso fan. Pete provides much more to the line up that Goldschmidt can, particularly at their respective ages of 30 and 37. There is also the 'what have you done for me recently' discussion that enters. Goldy's .716 OPS and 98 OPS+ was the worst of his career. I get it that he was in a terrible situation in St. Louis, but bringing him into the pitcher's park named Citi Field would probably not help anything.
Chapman is just too old. As some of the other comments allude to, the pen needs include guys that can eat innings. Chapman has been in more games than the number of innings he has thrown every year since 2016. Being left-handed is really the only good fit, but the days of the LOOGY are gone.
Hendricks. see comments about Goldschmidt above (what have you done recently? 2024 was a dumpster fire for him).
I grade the signings of Stanek and Alonso higher - probably an A- and and a B+, respectively.
I am OK with Minter in a pretty light LH relief market (other than Tanner Scott, who didn't make a lot of $$ sense)
I'm feeling pretty good about this team. There are going to be a few unhappy guys if everybody stays healthy and cuts have to be made, but the depth is great.
I like the concept of iWAR. We fans are limited to what we can read and observe and the intangibles are hard to discern from afar. In some other sports, basketball in particular, these qualities are both more readily apparent and more in the mainstream discussion. “Team fit” is a critical attribute. But this is not part of the conversation in baseball, except in extreme cases (e.g. Machado, Baez on the negative; Iglesias, Posey on the positive.). But I think it is very much part of the discussions inside the inner circle of the management teams making decisions. This often gets abstracted to a simple “good guy in the clubhouse” but it’s more than that. It’s about coachability, willingness to put the team first, commitment to the team vision, etc.). I think Winker fits the bill here although I would have liked them to sign Joc.
In addition to the 'clubhouse' intangible, there is also the line-up intangible. If they have a hitter like Alonso hitting behind Soto, do you think Soto will see better pitches than if Nimmo or even Vientos follows him? I think Alonso raises Soto up - more of his OPS will be from the slugging that from the OBP. Without a feared hitter (Judge??) behind him, Soto would probably walk about 200 times.
I also personally believe Soto will automatically raise the WAR of Lindor by hitting behind him. Lindor could score 140 runs this year.
Baseball is such a team sport that the individual metrics placed on players don't really tell the whole story. And as you point out, these guys have to spend a lot of time together for about 7 or 8 months. It really helps in the end if they actually like each other and form those bonds.
Excellent point about the line-up. I bet there’s some way to quantify this along the lines the plus/minus stat in the NBA. The concept of protection has been much debated but I completely agree with it for Soto. He’s otherwise turn into some version of Ted WIlliams or Barry Bonds (with less HRs.) Hopefully Alonso doesn’t slide further or that Vientos emerges as a reliable force if Pete falters.
That C- that Brian hung on Montas looks about right . . er.. maybe a little generous? Ugh. I hope this the injuries don't pile up. But you gotta love the depth.
Our depth guy Montas is out 6-8 weeks. Fun. I have kept my poostion that we need to add an ace.