15 Comments
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Brian Joura's avatar

Are you really making an argument about Alonso's worth over 16 games?

My opinion is that the best thing for Alonso now is to take a one-year deal with the Mets and try to rebuild value and bounce back from a very underwhelming season. He can reestablish value and then hit the free agent market without a qualifying offer attached after the following year.

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Texas Gus's avatar

Brian, if I’m Alonso, I let Boras work his magic. That’s Boras’ job, and he is usually good at it. What if Alonso has another less than acceptable season; what if he gets hurt; I understand why a younger player like Bellinger does that when he is 27, but a 30 year old with two declining seasons at a profile that ain’t viewed as sustainable…. I try to get the longest deal I can.

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Brian Joura's avatar

There's a certain logic to what you say.

What Alonso has to weigh is if a long-term contract this year at a depressed rate is worth the risk of an injury - or further decline - on a one-year deal for 2025. There's no right answer. My opinion is that very few MLB position players who've been as healthy as Alonso are overly worried about an injury.

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BoomBoom's avatar

I'd certainly take him over any of the alternatives. And I think the Walker deal sets Alonso s market is a more Stearns friendly range. I suspect there will be an effort to get him close to the terms he turned down (reportedly 7/158) in terms of avg yearly salary but with lots of opt outs and escalators.

5 yrs at 22.5 per year ($112.50) with 1st year player option and 3rd year club option with bonuses for franchise records in home runs, rbis, games played , all star selections, leading league in homers/rbis etc which could make the total value of the contract closer to $160-170.

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Steven Shrager's avatar

I have been a proponent of bringing back Alonso all season long. He is far from the best defensive first baseman in baseball, but I’ve said all season long if you see him dig out all those throws at first base he does have very good value. You also can’t have an All-Star at every position. Perhaps he’ll need to agree to a six year $160 million contract. The Mets should throw out the best offer they have and if he doesn’t accept it, they should move on and pick up a one year or two year option like on Arenado to play third base and move Vientos to first. The dollars have certainly gone up over the last few years, but he’s not worth more than Freeman on the Dodgers or Olsen on the Braves. Let’s see how much he really wants to play for the Mets.

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BoomBoom's avatar

I don't think they need to guarantee that much money or that many years. They d be bidding against themselves. He really has no market this year.

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Brian Joura's avatar

Agreed.

At this point Alonso will be lucky to get a four-year deal.

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Paul Castronovo's avatar

Walker's bWAR the last 3 years is about 1 better than Alonso's. A deal similar to Walker's in years and AAV might be what he gets.

If he's willing to sign with the Mets for 3/60, then I'd be glad to have him back.

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Brian Joura's avatar

This is probably what he should get.

For past services, I would go 3/$75. But I don't believe he signs that deal, either.

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Bob Peterson's avatar

I’d be ok bringing back Pete on a reasonable contract. The one year prove it deal that Brian mentioned would be ideal but I could probably live with 5/$125, but no more than that. With that said, if there’s a legitimate plan in the front office to make a push for Vlad Jr., I would go with a different one year stop gap, (Alonso would be perfect if he took that) or maybe look at Bregman with Vientos the one year plan at 1st and then moving to DH in 2026. A lot of moving pieces and tough to know what’s best without knowing Stearns short and long term plans.

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T.J.'s avatar

Pete with the Mets is really the best fit. But, Pete’s a free agent now because he values his services way beyond what the Mets value his services. He decided to let the market set his value, which is his right, and as noted by others, the market is more in line with the Met valuation. I agree with those suggesting a return to the Mets on a short deal with a player opt out. Unless he can find a buyer in a spot in a big hitters park, hitting in the Met lineup could benefit him most and the team as well. But, there is no reason for the Mets to overpay here, despite the sentiment to keep him as a home grown Met.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

I’d still go 5/125 but he won’t get the reported deal he earlier got.

Like the saying goes, some days you’re the dog, some days you’re the hydrant.

I also think a lot of teams see him as inevitably being on the Mets, and just not getting involved for a RH hitting 1B that is a 1.5 dimensional player. I still think his defense is better than what he gets credit for.

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Metsense's avatar

Walker signed with the Astros.at 3/$60 m. Goldschmidt with the Yankees at 1/$12.5. They were the primary suitors for Alonso and were the primary options for the Mets.

The Mets have a first baseman in Vientos so they can still pivot to Bregman. Bregman has a rWAR of 4.6, 4.9 and 4.1 for the last 3 years. .Alonso had rWAR of 4.4, 3.2 and 2.6 in the same period. Bregman would be a better choice.

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Metsense's avatar

And now the Diamondbacks obtained Naylar from the Guardians who in turn signed Carlos Santana. Alonso's choices are diminishing.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

It also seems like the Mets choices are dwindling g

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