I am unabashedly pro-player, much preferring that money goes to the players that perform on the field, rather than whatever entity owns the team. Players have won the right to choose where they play once they reach free agency. My preference is that they reach free agency sooner but that’s a different thing than what’s on my mind right now.
Luis Severino had a solid season for the Mets in 2024, much, much better than my expectations for him. He stayed healthy and put up results. Yet at the end of the day, Severino posted a 2.1 fWAR – essentially a league-average performance. He was a free agent and had earned the right to pick where he played
Like many Mets from that team, Severino wanted to return to the club. This weekend, we learned that Severino proposed a 2/$40 deal, while the Mets countered with a 2/$34 offer. FanGraphs values a win in free agency being worth roughly $8 million. Which means Severino was valuing himself as a 5-win player over the life of the contract, while the Mets viewed him as slightly above a 4-win player.
Severino felt like he was giving the Mets a discount while the team felt otherwise. And in the marketplace this offseason, Severino was right, as he found a team that gave him a 3/$67 deal. That’s an extra year and a better AAV. Bully for him – he was right and the Mets were wrong.
Yet was Severino really right and the Mets really wrong? Financially, Severino is better off, without a doubt. But is he better off playing for a vastly inferior team, in a vastly inferior park the next three seasons?
Baseball-Reference shows Severino having made over $50 million between 2021-2024, with money earned before that, too, as he made his MLB debut in 2017. At what point does winning a championship mean more than making as much money as you can? That’s a question with a different answer for each player. And it’s very easy for me to say that he should have forsaken $33 million.
To be clear, it was a relief for me that Severino went elsewhere. My opinion was that he wasn’t going to be worth whatever contract he got as a free agent. It’s not like my hope was that he was going to return to the Mets. This is not a fanboy take.
Rather, it’s a question of priorities. Should Severino have prioritized money? Should the Mets have made a better offer? At what point should being in a known environment, a good one at that, matter? At what point is it worth it to pay “extra” for a known commodity? Should both Severino and the Mets look in the mirror and feel that they made the right choice?
I think both voting options are correct. Neither made a mistake and I don’t begrudge Sevy $0.01.
I am happy that Severino had a great comeback year. I am happy that he got paid. The gut tells me that he was not going to repeat his success from last year.