I, David Stearns don't want to pay Pete Alonso more than 3/$70m because that is what he is worth in the last three years in his prime. Now he isn't in his prime. I feel like anything more will be an overpay. I need to have an alternate plan to present to the boss when I don't sign Alonso. Let me think.
Okay, Anthony Santander said that he would do a short-term contract. Maybe he would sign at 3/$70m, after all it would be better than Hernandez 3/$66m contract. Anthony would be a good fit with the team, he is a switch power hitter and younger than Pete and then Mauricio, Baty and Acuna can battle it out for the third base position. I think I'll call his agent.
Actually Santander is about 6 weeks older than Alonso. He does not have the track record of success that Pete does. Brady Anderson once hit 50 home runs for the Orioles. Are you glad you didn't run out and sign him? He did have one good year after that, but otherwise it was overpaid production.
There is very little record to predict that Santander will outperform Pete over the next three years. (even by WAR value)
Come on Scott, you know that I don't want to overpay anyone. I like Pete but in the last 3 years he had a 8.7 fWAR which is worth $70m. You want me to pay him almost $24m more for the next 3 years? Just for comparison take Anthony Santander. In the last 3 years he had a 8.2 fWAR and I'm sure he is not wanted 3/ $94m. Scott, you need to be reasonable and resubmit a fair offer.
It seems that if we had solid truthful info we could make a more information decision. But we don’t. Did the Mets in fact offer a three year $90 million contract with some opt outs or not? If they were willing to go to $30 million then signing a deal at $31 should be a no brainer. I have no issue with opt outs each year, and if he has a monster year in 2025 then good luck to him signing a big deal with the Mariners or the Cubs and inching forward as another good player who never gets a ring. Shame on Boras for guiding his clients to squeeze the teams for every last dollar so they will be able to buy eggs and fill their gas tanks even at the currently inflated prices. So yes, I’m in the $30 plus range on the poll for a three year deal. I’d go to four years but at $25-27 million. Just make a decision one way or another.
Santander would be a great bat but he’s an outfielder and he’s no youngster. If we were going to punt Alonso then they should have signed Goldschmidt and plopped him at first for 2025. That would have been a Stearns preferred short term deal and push the issue off until next year. Hard to argue with Stearns’ success so far and love that collectively we call him out when we don’t like what he is doing.
If I were David Stearns, a NYC product with roots and a golden job, I understand the value of happy fans. I give my favorite first baseman three options:
3/$93.3, no opt outs
3/$84, opt out only after the second season
3 years at $32, $27, $22 with an opt out after each year. If Alonso isn’t opting out, it’s because he isn’t doing well and why should the team suffer? If he isn’t opting out because he isn’t doing well, then he can take the highest number and be in his way, when he’s ready. I won’t be a fool.
Brian, this is actually a great question that has me really scratching my head.
I don't believe that David Stearns thinking is that they will sign Vladimir Guerrero next year to a long term deal after getting Soto this year.
But if he doesn't want to tie up the best first baseman (offensively) currently available for more than one year, why didn't he make a run for Goldschmidt? I am struggling to see how he is really thinking here. It seems like that 3 year deal for Alonso gives him the best chance to win it all in 2025 and still give the kids a look. He can't be betting hard on Clifford being the ready to be the guy as soon as 2026. I really don't know what to make of it.
I agree - I don't believe they'll go after Vlad, either.
At the end of the day, I just am not going to worry about what they do at 1B for 2025. They won 89 games this past year with a guy who gave league-average production as their starting 1B. They can find that production for 2025 without too much trouble.
Stearns isn't going to give the multi-year deal to Alonso that so many people wanted him to do. If he overpays on a three-year deal - I'll be less than thrilled but try to justify it to myself, saying that it makes the fans happy.
If I was the GM, I'd hold the line so that any years that have opt outs for Alonso should also have opt outs for the team. If Alonso turns back the clock and has a monster year, he should be able to go back into free agency without the Qualifying Offer and get the long-term deal he wants. But if he continues his downward trend, the Mets shouldn't have to continue to pay him an inflated rate.
I guess that is where we disagree. Somehow a guy that was 12th in the MLB in homers, tied for 29th in RBI, and tied for 39th in OPS does not seem league average. I get it that those numbers are down for him, but that is where his value is going to be in 2025 anyway - he is still a feared power hitter. Opposing pitchers will not treat him like a league average hitter. Yes, he needs to learn to not chase that low and outside slider as much, but it is more than 'not too much trouble' to replace a hitter like Pete.
Again, you need to look at things beyond Triple Crown numbers. What happened when he didn't hit a homer? Those other 661 PA count, too. And for RBIs, that's only half a stat. It's great to have a bunch of RBIs. But did you get them because you had a lot of chances with runners on base?
The Baseball Musings RBI calculator shows that Alonso came up with 437 runners on base last year, tied for the 9th-most in the majors. And even with all of the HR he hit, he was tied for 29th in RBIs. That's, um, not good.
He had a 12.36 RBI%, which ranked 273rd in the majors. The Mets signed Joey Meneses to a minor league deal. He had a 20.0 RBI% last year.
Alonso had a 2.1 fWAR last year and a 2.0 mark is considered an average player. His B-R number is a fraction higher but it's that way because it values his defense more. And fWAR uses Statcast numbers for defense, which are the most advanced numbers out there, using video analysis for its numbers.
I'm a big fan of power. I remember when John Milner led the Mets with 17 HR, It was no fun seeing other teams filled with power hitters. I remember how thrilled I was when the Mets got Dave Kingman and he was one of my favorites. But there's more to the game than hitting home runs and getting to bat with a lot of guys on base.
It gives me no pleasure to say that Alonso's not worth a big contract. It's been a lot of fun watching him hit all of those homers in a Mets uniform. But if he had spent his career with the Rangers and was a free agent - a whole lot of Mets fans would be way more objective when looking at him.
I think David Stearns looks at the Christian Walker deal at an avg of $20 per year, adds $5 million per year for Pete being 4 years younger and offers a 3 year deal for $75 million with an opt out after year 1.
$25-$29 million. Also, I don't think he will (or should) go for an opt out after year 1, since there's a good chance that Pete will press again.
I, David Stearns don't want to pay Pete Alonso more than 3/$70m because that is what he is worth in the last three years in his prime. Now he isn't in his prime. I feel like anything more will be an overpay. I need to have an alternate plan to present to the boss when I don't sign Alonso. Let me think.
Okay, Anthony Santander said that he would do a short-term contract. Maybe he would sign at 3/$70m, after all it would be better than Hernandez 3/$66m contract. Anthony would be a good fit with the team, he is a switch power hitter and younger than Pete and then Mauricio, Baty and Acuna can battle it out for the third base position. I think I'll call his agent.
Actually Santander is about 6 weeks older than Alonso. He does not have the track record of success that Pete does. Brady Anderson once hit 50 home runs for the Orioles. Are you glad you didn't run out and sign him? He did have one good year after that, but otherwise it was overpaid production.
There is very little record to predict that Santander will outperform Pete over the next three years. (even by WAR value)
Come on Scott, you know that I don't want to overpay anyone. I like Pete but in the last 3 years he had a 8.7 fWAR which is worth $70m. You want me to pay him almost $24m more for the next 3 years? Just for comparison take Anthony Santander. In the last 3 years he had a 8.2 fWAR and I'm sure he is not wanted 3/ $94m. Scott, you need to be reasonable and resubmit a fair offer.
It seems that if we had solid truthful info we could make a more information decision. But we don’t. Did the Mets in fact offer a three year $90 million contract with some opt outs or not? If they were willing to go to $30 million then signing a deal at $31 should be a no brainer. I have no issue with opt outs each year, and if he has a monster year in 2025 then good luck to him signing a big deal with the Mariners or the Cubs and inching forward as another good player who never gets a ring. Shame on Boras for guiding his clients to squeeze the teams for every last dollar so they will be able to buy eggs and fill their gas tanks even at the currently inflated prices. So yes, I’m in the $30 plus range on the poll for a three year deal. I’d go to four years but at $25-27 million. Just make a decision one way or another.
Santander would be a great bat but he’s an outfielder and he’s no youngster. If we were going to punt Alonso then they should have signed Goldschmidt and plopped him at first for 2025. That would have been a Stearns preferred short term deal and push the issue off until next year. Hard to argue with Stearns’ success so far and love that collectively we call him out when we don’t like what he is doing.
Since Roki Sasaki was mentioned in the article - from MLBTR
2:56pm: The Mets have also been informed that they are out of the running, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/roki-sasaki-reportedly-informs-yankees-they-are-out-of-running.html
His loss. He wanted recognition and marketing opportunities. The Yankees or Mets were perfect.
If I were David Stearns, a NYC product with roots and a golden job, I understand the value of happy fans. I give my favorite first baseman three options:
3/$93.3, no opt outs
3/$84, opt out only after the second season
3 years at $32, $27, $22 with an opt out after each year. If Alonso isn’t opting out, it’s because he isn’t doing well and why should the team suffer? If he isn’t opting out because he isn’t doing well, then he can take the highest number and be in his way, when he’s ready. I won’t be a fool.
Gus, Gus, Gus - it's not what you would do! It's what, knowing what you know about Stearns, you think Stearns will do
Oh! I think he will sign Alonso to a short opt outs deal, with huge AAV but plenty of deferred money.
Brian, this is actually a great question that has me really scratching my head.
I don't believe that David Stearns thinking is that they will sign Vladimir Guerrero next year to a long term deal after getting Soto this year.
But if he doesn't want to tie up the best first baseman (offensively) currently available for more than one year, why didn't he make a run for Goldschmidt? I am struggling to see how he is really thinking here. It seems like that 3 year deal for Alonso gives him the best chance to win it all in 2025 and still give the kids a look. He can't be betting hard on Clifford being the ready to be the guy as soon as 2026. I really don't know what to make of it.
I agree - I don't believe they'll go after Vlad, either.
At the end of the day, I just am not going to worry about what they do at 1B for 2025. They won 89 games this past year with a guy who gave league-average production as their starting 1B. They can find that production for 2025 without too much trouble.
Stearns isn't going to give the multi-year deal to Alonso that so many people wanted him to do. If he overpays on a three-year deal - I'll be less than thrilled but try to justify it to myself, saying that it makes the fans happy.
If I was the GM, I'd hold the line so that any years that have opt outs for Alonso should also have opt outs for the team. If Alonso turns back the clock and has a monster year, he should be able to go back into free agency without the Qualifying Offer and get the long-term deal he wants. But if he continues his downward trend, the Mets shouldn't have to continue to pay him an inflated rate.
I guess that is where we disagree. Somehow a guy that was 12th in the MLB in homers, tied for 29th in RBI, and tied for 39th in OPS does not seem league average. I get it that those numbers are down for him, but that is where his value is going to be in 2025 anyway - he is still a feared power hitter. Opposing pitchers will not treat him like a league average hitter. Yes, he needs to learn to not chase that low and outside slider as much, but it is more than 'not too much trouble' to replace a hitter like Pete.
Again, you need to look at things beyond Triple Crown numbers. What happened when he didn't hit a homer? Those other 661 PA count, too. And for RBIs, that's only half a stat. It's great to have a bunch of RBIs. But did you get them because you had a lot of chances with runners on base?
The Baseball Musings RBI calculator shows that Alonso came up with 437 runners on base last year, tied for the 9th-most in the majors. And even with all of the HR he hit, he was tied for 29th in RBIs. That's, um, not good.
He had a 12.36 RBI%, which ranked 273rd in the majors. The Mets signed Joey Meneses to a minor league deal. He had a 20.0 RBI% last year.
Alonso had a 2.1 fWAR last year and a 2.0 mark is considered an average player. His B-R number is a fraction higher but it's that way because it values his defense more. And fWAR uses Statcast numbers for defense, which are the most advanced numbers out there, using video analysis for its numbers.
I'm a big fan of power. I remember when John Milner led the Mets with 17 HR, It was no fun seeing other teams filled with power hitters. I remember how thrilled I was when the Mets got Dave Kingman and he was one of my favorites. But there's more to the game than hitting home runs and getting to bat with a lot of guys on base.
It gives me no pleasure to say that Alonso's not worth a big contract. It's been a lot of fun watching him hit all of those homers in a Mets uniform. But if he had spent his career with the Rangers and was a free agent - a whole lot of Mets fans would be way more objective when looking at him.
I think David Stearns looks at the Christian Walker deal at an avg of $20 per year, adds $5 million per year for Pete being 4 years younger and offers a 3 year deal for $75 million with an opt out after year 1.