It’s been quite the ride here recently for Jack Flaherty, who yesterday signed a deal that’s being described as 2/$35 but, barring injury, it’s unlikely to play out that way.
I think Mets fans have recency bias (and PTSD) when it comes to Flaherty since he carved us up in G1 of the NLCS. We did get our revenge in G5 where he was ousted after 3 innings giving up 8ER in a 12-6 victory with a lead that never felt safe for the Mets. It's easy to remember his dominance from G1 and less easy to remember the shalacking we gave him in G5. I'm glad we took a flyer on F Montas and glad we passed on Jack F.
Flaherty is 29 this season. Montas is 32. Flaherty was consistent all the year last year. He had a similar season of the 2021 season of Montas. Flaherty's 2024 season was comparable to Manaea's 2024 season. Montas 2021 was comparable to Manaea's 2024 season. If Flaherty and Montas pitch well then both will opt out. Having signed Montas the Mets will saving $8m. Flaherty is younger and trending upward. Montas is trending downward since 2021. Flaherty is the better deal.
That said, remember that Montas signed December 4th. Flaherty wasn't going to sign his current deal at that date. So Flaherty would be the starter in a six-man rotation if Stearns signed him yesterday. There is no blame to signing Montas.
I'd certainly prefer Buehler to Canning. But Buehler is also the guy who in the last three years threw a combined 140.1 IP with a 4.75 ERA. That's what the Red Sox are paying $25 million for in 2025.
I think Buehler is getting $21 mil from Boston. I’d probably gamble on him at $21 mil than Montas at $17 mil with the possibility of $34 mil if he stinks in 2025…but I’ll have to trust Stearns on that. The Mets have plenty of depth but are lacking guys with true #1 and #2 potential…at least right now.
You are correct. I had Buehler's B-R page open and the last line was $25 million. But that was for 2026 - which is a mutual option and likely to be turned down by one side or the other.
May it work out better for the Red Sox than last year's Lucas Giolito deal, another guy that many Mets fans wanted but who had a 4.43 ERA over the previous three seasons.
That's the same ERA as Montas over the past three seasons. But at no point do I remember Mets fans clamoring for Montas...
I think Mets fans have recency bias (and PTSD) when it comes to Flaherty since he carved us up in G1 of the NLCS. We did get our revenge in G5 where he was ousted after 3 innings giving up 8ER in a 12-6 victory with a lead that never felt safe for the Mets. It's easy to remember his dominance from G1 and less easy to remember the shalacking we gave him in G5. I'm glad we took a flyer on F Montas and glad we passed on Jack F.
Montas because that's who we signed. Had we signed Flaherty, I would have said Flaherty :-)
I read this as "I trust Stearns."
Basically
Flaherty is 29 this season. Montas is 32. Flaherty was consistent all the year last year. He had a similar season of the 2021 season of Montas. Flaherty's 2024 season was comparable to Manaea's 2024 season. Montas 2021 was comparable to Manaea's 2024 season. If Flaherty and Montas pitch well then both will opt out. Having signed Montas the Mets will saving $8m. Flaherty is younger and trending upward. Montas is trending downward since 2021. Flaherty is the better deal.
That said, remember that Montas signed December 4th. Flaherty wasn't going to sign his current deal at that date. So Flaherty would be the starter in a six-man rotation if Stearns signed him yesterday. There is no blame to signing Montas.
Easily Flaherty.
Flaherty: 162 innings at 127 ERA+ last year. Montas: 150 innings at 89 ERA+.
Walker Buehler
I'd certainly prefer Buehler to Canning. But Buehler is also the guy who in the last three years threw a combined 140.1 IP with a 4.75 ERA. That's what the Red Sox are paying $25 million for in 2025.
I think Buehler is getting $21 mil from Boston. I’d probably gamble on him at $21 mil than Montas at $17 mil with the possibility of $34 mil if he stinks in 2025…but I’ll have to trust Stearns on that. The Mets have plenty of depth but are lacking guys with true #1 and #2 potential…at least right now.
You are correct. I had Buehler's B-R page open and the last line was $25 million. But that was for 2026 - which is a mutual option and likely to be turned down by one side or the other.
May it work out better for the Red Sox than last year's Lucas Giolito deal, another guy that many Mets fans wanted but who had a 4.43 ERA over the previous three seasons.
That's the same ERA as Montas over the past three seasons. But at no point do I remember Mets fans clamoring for Montas...