Riding the roller coaster on Jett Williams

And thoughts on Garrett Crochet

Anyone who’s read this site for awhile knows you’ll get strong opinions on players from me. But those opinions aren’t written in stone. Two offseasons ago, the Mets acquired Tommy Pham and immediately my opinion formed that he wasn’t any good. Yet, his play eventually demanded that opinion of mine to change, so much so that before he was inserted into the starting lineup, there was a piece here suggesting that the Mets increase his role.

You have to be flexible with your opinions and change them when enough evidence materializes. Now, this doesn’t mean that a 3-5 day or an 0-5 outing means you change your tune. There has to be a reasonable sample size. Luisangel Acuna doesn’t hit in 754 PA in the minors – you don’t throw that away because he has a .455 BABIP in his first five games in the majors. And, sure enough, after that hot start, Acuna batted .185 in his next 28 PA with a .200 BABIP.

Which brings us to Jett Williams.

When the Mets picked Williams with the 14th pick of the 2022 Draft, it was not met with jumping jacks from me. His size – 5’6 – was a turnoff, as was the description of him as a “pure hitter.” Dating back to the early 90s and Chad McConnell, it seems the term “pure hitter” is attached to a guy who shows elite bat-to-ball skills against inferior pitching and then as the quality of pitching improves, those “elite” skills fail to adapt.

So, what does Williams do? He goes out and has a monster season in 2023. Williams was very strong in Lo-A and then was tremendous in Hi-A, putting up a 1.018 OPS despite playing his home games in pitcher-friendly Brooklyn. He was so impressive that he even got a cup of coffee in Double-A. With 508 very successful PA in A-ball under his belt, which included 42 XBH, my opinion on Williams changed. For me, he was the club’s top prospect and a virtual untouchable as far as trade talks were concerned.

Then Williams got hurt and missed most of the 2024 season. He came back late in the year and got a brief exposure to Triple-A. To make up for some lost playing time, the Mets assigned Williams to the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL, with a few games remaining in the season, Williams has a .211/.358/.382 line in 95 PA. That .740 OPS is 100 points below the Scottsdale team average. Williams has displayed good patience and reasonable power production. But no one can claim the hits are falling in for him in the desert.

It’s not an awful performance by any means and it’s fewer than 100 PA. Still, my opinion on Williams has shifted again. It doesn’t mean that he no longer ranks as the team’s first or second-best prospect. It’s just that – for me – he’s no longer considered as an untouchable player when it comes to trade discussions.

A few days ago, there was a poll question about how the Mets could acquire an ace starting pitcher. And one of those was to trade for Garrett Crochet, the top pitcher on the White Sox. Crochet has two things going for him. First is that he’ll be in his age-26 season in 2025, making him at least four years younger than the top free agent pitchers. Also, Crochet has 219 IP in the majors under his belt, making him somewhat experienced at this level, compared to the top pitchers available from Japan.

Injuries, combined with a relief role earlier in his career, had kept Crochet’s innings way down. By the All-Star break last year, Crochet had 107.1 IP, the most he had thrown either professionally or as a collegian, topping his previous-best of 65 IP, which he threw as a sophomore at Tennessee in 2019. Crochet did not pitch more than four innings in any appearance in the second half of the year, as the White Sox were going nowhere and they decided to limit his innings.

Crochet finished the year with 146 IP and a 3.58 ERA.

The good news is that Crochet should be able to pitch a full season without restrictions in 2025. The other side of the coin is that his production fell off considerably in the second half. Yet it’s reasonable to put an asterisk there, as he was undoubtedly affected both by Chicago’s poor season, as well as its attempts to trade him at the deadline. But even if you give him a mulligan there, we still have to consider how he had a large H/R split. Crochet had a 3.30 ERA and a 9.23 K/BB at home, compared to a 3.90 ERA and a 4.45 K/BB on the road.

The White Sox seem committed to trading Crochet as a means to bring more talent into the organization. They’ve also stated that they’re interested in a deal that brings back hitting. And if the Mets are interested in adding Crochet, it seems that Williams would be their best chance to make that happen.

Which brings us to this: Should the Mets be willing to trade Williams – and other top prospects – to get a young, cost-controlled pitcher like Crochet? Whichever team gets Crochet will have him for his last two years of arbitration. And if that’s the Mets, it seems very likely they would keep him longer than that, even at a market-rate deal for a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Back when they sold off assets at the trade deadline in 2023, many fans were disappointed because they did not add any pitching to the farm system. And while the Mets have seen some solid pitching thru the Double-A level in the last few years, it’s been a different story once those hurlers have reached Triple-A. Among others, Dom Hamel, Justin Jarvis, Joander Suarez, Blade Tidwell and Mike Vasil have been knocked around at the highest level after having success in Binghamton.

Jose Butto has pitched well in Triple-A yet the Mets don’t seem overly keen on giving him a shot. Christian Scott also had success in Syracuse, but he’s out for the 2025 season. There’s still hope for Brandon Sproat, yet he had a 7.53 ERA in seven games and 28.2 IP at the top level of the farm system in 2024.

The Mets have to ask themselves if there’s something about Syracuse that is so difficult for pitchers that would explain the troubles that so many hurlers have had recently at that level. Or if their pitching prospects are simply not that good. And maybe the answer isn’t that important when it comes to which pitcher(s) the major league club should get in the offseason.

Perhaps the better question is if this is the right time to cash in some minor league chits, like Williams, to bring in a top starter, like Crochet. It’s not an easy answer, regardless of which side of the trading prospects fence you come down on. Perhaps you’re okay with trading youngsters but don’t feel like Crochet is the right player for which to push in your chips. Or maybe you’re okay with trading youngsters but you still want to hold the line on dealing Williams. And on the third hand – maybe you feel it’s too soon in the success cycle to empty out the farm system of multiple top prospects, regardless if it’s Williams or others.

Right now, Crochet seems to me the type of pitcher the Mets should be actively trying to get. And if that means trading Williams, then that’s the cost of doing business. It’s great fun to watch homegrown players reach the majors and succeed. It’s what’s made rooting for Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo so much fun here recently. But part of the purpose of the farm system is to develop guys you trade to shore up weaknesses at the MLB level.

Ideally, you’re trading from quality depth, rather than one of your best prospects. But players like Crochet aren’t available every time you turn around. Last year, the Mets’ plan was that they weren’t going to issue long-term deals, yet they were still in there presenting Yoshinobu Yamamoto with a multi-year deal because he was a young pitcher with a very-high ceiling. They were willing to alter their approach with Yamamoto. Are they willing to do the same with Crochet?

And are they willing to part with Williams to make that happen? My take is they should. And that’s less about any lowered expectations in the long run for Williams, rather than the chance to get a young ace into the fold.