Spring Training, where narrative still reigns supreme

He's in the best shape of his life!

Having been on the air since the late 80s, there’s a quote from “The Simpsons” to cover just about any situation. And if you can’t find an exact quote, there’s always the chalkboard. If, somehow, you’re unfamiliar with the show, the opening credits have a shot of Bart writing multiple times on the chalkboard some punishment or reminder. So, here we are with our annual reminder about the reliability of Grapefruit League numbers.

It’s long been said that you can’t trust numbers for hurlers because they’re working on new pitches or not throwing their complete arsenal or they’re refining a pitch by throwing it way more often than they would normally. Yeah, sure, this is sometimes true. But sometimes a pitcher is just building up in Florida and the process is more important than the results. Here’s Craig Kimbrel on his early performances as a Met:

“I know my velocity is down right now, but I don’t imagine it will stay there as we get closer to the end of camp,” Kimbrel said. “When the lights come on and the crowds are there, I see that jumping just with excitement and adrenaline. I’ve always kind of been that way.

“I’m pretty happy with where I’m at right now and how my body is progressing and how I’m recovering each and every day,” he said. “I’m building up. I’m not quite where I want to be. But I’ve gotten some positive signs. … As long as I keep on building on them, I feel like I’ll be in a pretty good spot.”

Source: Jon Heyman, New York Post

Kimbrel has made two Grapefruit League appearances and has a 4.50 ERA with 3 BB in 2 IP. It’s not awful but it’s not quite enough for a non-roster player to earn a job. As fans, we’re left to deduce if the veteran Kimbrel really is building up velocity or if this is merely a BS comment designed to earn him as much leeway as possible, whether with the fans or the decision makers.

Kodai Senga gives up 2 HR in 2.2 IP in his Spring debut. But everyone is upbeat because his fastball velocity is up and he seems to be healthy. Those are good things. Here’s how Carlos Mendoza put it:

“You see a Kodai Senga in the clubhouse smiling,” Mendoza said. There’s “more interaction with teammates. He’s not in the training room [needing to get] treatment. He’s just a healthy player that’s able to do a lot of different things. It affects the personality. It’s definitely a different version of his personality this year.”

Source: Laura Albanese, Newsday

Life for the Mets is a lot easier if Senga is back to the pitcher he was in 2023 and before he got hurt in the middle of 2025. We want so much to believe that Senga is back, that he’s happy and healthy and ready to go. In the same Albanese piece, there was a quote from Senga how his body had changed after the 2025 injury and that Senga was re-inventing himself to deal with his new reality.

“I know that my body is different from where I was three years ago,” he said via an interpreter Saturday after a very strong training camp debut at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. “I’m not really trying to get back to that . . . I feel really good. I’ve felt really good. I’m able to attack all the things I wanted to work on from last year and I think that’s flourishing now.”

It seems weird to think that giving up two homers is “flourishing,” yet, you know what they say about Spring Training stats.

And then there’s Carson Benge. The Mets so want him to be the team’s starting right fielder. And in Grapefruit League play, Benge is second on the team with 18 PA, hasn’t drawn a walk nor delivered an extra-base hit. His OPS stands at .627 despite a .357 BABIP. Yet here’s what Mendoza said about the club’s top hitting prospect:

“As advertised, [he’s] a guy with a lot of tools,” Mendoza said. “I’ve been impressed with the quality of the bats as far as left-on-left, fouling off pitches, putting the ball in play, his ability to drive the baseball to all fields.”

Source: Mark Feinsand, MLB.com

You probably saw a highlight of Benge hitting an opposite field home run. That came in an exhibition game against WBC Team Israel so it doesn’t show up in the Grapefruit League numbers listed earlier. Benge homered against an A-ball pitcher from the Guardians’ organization. It was good to see him homer against a lefty.

*****

We all want Kimbrel to be good enough to make the team, for Senga to be back as an All-Star caliber pitcher and for Benge to be ready for the majors. Yet for all three players here on March 8, the case is all narrative. You need to tell a story to dismiss the results. And for the one millionth time, Spring Training stats are meaningless. Still, all things being equal, wouldn’t you want guys who you hope to play big roles on the team to be excelling against competition that isn’t quite MLB quality?

There’s still time for the results to improve. Maybe Kimbrel adds enough velocity to strike out the side. Perhaps Senga’s non-fastball pitches are good enough to make his ghost fork even better and he stops giving up gopher balls. It’s possible that Benge’s quality of at-bats starts showing up in games and he delivers an XBH off a Triple-A quality pitcher.

Yes, Spring Training stats are meaningless. But throw me a bone and give me something to make me believe the narrative. Kimbrel doesn’t need a sub-2.00 ERA but he does need to show the ability to get MLB hitters out on a consistent basis. Senga doesn’t need a sub-1.00 HR/9 but he does need to show a viable third pitch. Benge doesn’t need a .900 OPS but he needs to draw some walks and put some balls in play with authority.