Again, spot on, Brian. Despite Cohen’s money, the presence of the Dodgers and the legacy of the Yankees, it never pays to buy every shiny toy in the shop.
Stearns has a bigger task than at any time in Milwaukee: win a WS. So far I am not impressed with the bailing-wire and duct tape acquisitions. If I were Soto, I’d be disappointed. As Ive said before, Pete made his own future, and I have no feelings to just “pay the man”. But this team is short of a solid bat, and I think another strong starter. Counting on something like a Sproat promotion is more just high-stakes gambling, which Stearns is doing all over the field. Outside Soto, I do. Not see a single high impact bank-on signing except *perhaps* Manaea. Siri = no, Minter = No, Holmes = no, Montas = no etc.
I remain concerned that the infield shuffle with newbies is not going to go well. Right now the only certain IF position is SS. February is right around the corner. That is not a good sign. Let’s say Vientos to 1B, where he must learn a new position. 2B is a total mystery but it seems like some combo of McNeil/Acuna/?Maruicio is in play, leaving Baty to somehow figure out if he can become a major leaguer at 3B. It’s pretty disheartening.
I’d like to propose we solve this with a position move for a veteran: I think it’s high time to move Nimmo to 1B, much like Harper in Philly. This would get Nimmo off the long runs in the OF and lessen the plantar faciitis, limit the throwing for ol Google-arm, and let him focus on glove work where he is good. This keeps Vientos at 3B and leaves some competition for 2B. We have enough OF to make this happen.
My personal feeling is that the situation for this team is much more time-critical than others imagine. Nimmo is aging, Lindor is aging, Soto is at an apex, Manaea is aging, Diaz is aging. To me the time to make serious moves is right now and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. I dont buy into “make the post-season and let luck, chaos, and hot-streaks save the day.” I also do not see much in “making the post-season” as a goal unto itself. That’s my personal position. I want the team to win a WS and frame all my thinking around that singular goal. Usually there is some window when the stars align to be legitimate contenders, just like we saw with the Astros.
I’d move Nimmo to 1B right now, keep Vientos at 3B, make 2B a competition, then put Winker/Taylor in LF, Siri/Taylor in CF, and Soto in RF. This alignment means no new people need to come in and that the team can focus on pitching. With Gilbert and Benge in the wings for OF, I feel like that is reasonable.
I respect your opinion on the time to make "serious moves" is right now but I disagree completely.
Most people who study the issue view a player's peak occurring from age-26-to-30. That means the next five years for Soto will be his entire peak. And sure, it means that Lindor and Nimmo (and mostly Alonso) will be post-peak. And that's why you have to be able to transition minor leaguers into the equation. They're going to be paying for the decline years of Lindor and Nimmo. Hopefully Alvarez, Baty, Benge, Clifford, Gilbert, Mauricio, Vientos and Williams give them some cheap players to provide league-average and better production moving forward.
My opinion is that this is still a "learning" season for the Mets. They need to know if Vientos was a one-shot deal or if he'll be a key member of the team. They need to see more from all of the minor leaguers mentioned above. They need to see if Manaea and Peterson can reproduce what they did last year and if Senga can return to his 2023 form. And they also need to see if either Holmes or Montas can be a useful piece.
My hope is that at the end of the 2025 season, we'll have confirmed that Manaea, Peterson, Senga and Vientos are indeed key pieces. I hope a bullpen arm - Garrett? Nunez? SRF? steps up as a key piece, too. And I hope that a few of those minor leaguers take a step forward.
Ultimately, my feeling is that this team is too far away right now in late January. My hope is that enough questions will be answered positively to feel differently for the 2026 season.
Interesting. Your projection makes me think that your sense is the stars will align for a different group, one led by youngins and not the vets we presently have. So if I understand, your sense is that Soto is the advance guard and were gonna bring up Vientos, Baty, Benge, Sproat, Tong, etc as the key players with Soto. My personal feeling is that we use Nimmo, Manaea, Soto, Lindor, Diaz this minute and supplement them with possible youth talent. That’s why my timeframe centers on urgency.
It would be great if the current core can get it done in 2025. And that's not out of the question at all.
But with the exception of Diaz - who has an option - all of the guys you list will be there in 2026. According to Cot's, Diaz has to make his choice on both the '26 and '27 options at the same time. So, if he's back for '26, he'll be back in '27, too.
Ultimately, I think we're going to have more answers after 2025 than we have now. I see the '25-'26 offseason as potentially the one to push all the chips in., not now.
I’m intrigued by the Nimmo at 1B idea. I also think Winker could be a good solution and I wonder why they’ve not tried McNeil there.
Here’s another idea.
This guy is on the 40 man roster and slashed 310/417/577 with 21 HRs in 310 AAA ABs in 2023 and then followed up with 285/411/506, 11 HRs, in 235 ABs in 2024. He finished 2024 in the KBO and ripped an OPS of 1.080 with 10 dingers in 144 ABs. His K/BB rates seem fine (~20%/~10%) over his minor league career. He has bounced around a bit but he probably deserved a better shot at the majors, hence the Korean gig.
He plays 1B and is 29 yrs old. Jared Young should be in the conversation.
So my takeaway is that they had a boat load of poor playing and injuries and still won 89 games and went very deep into the playoffs. Amazing Mets they are. I’m sure other teams had tons of issues as well. So if we get Alvarez to hit like he did in 2023 it takes some of the pressure of losing Alonso’s 30-40 dingers. If McNeil gets off to a good start that adds a great tool to the offense. I am still caught up in how many people think that anyone can play first base. This isn’t the olden days when a player was dump at first to keep their bat in the lineup when their legs prevented them from playing the outfield. With his versatility McNeil might actually be the best option at first. Then put Acuna at second, keep Vientos at third where he has established himself and package Baty in a deal to get a front line starter. Not to beat a horse to death, that has likely left the barn, but Alonso hit .273 with a .999 OPS, 4 HR and 20 RBI un the playoffs. Still some questions about this roster before they start printing playoff tickets and unless some kids explode onto the scene, I see lots of anxiety for us to chat about all season. The good teams generally don’t have so many question marks going into the season and yes they haven’t even gotten to SP yet, so I guess I can take a breath. 🤷♂️
It is surprising that the Mets won 89 games and were a playoff team in 2024 with so much adversity to overcome. Give Stearns credit that he addressed all issues and Mendoza didn't panic and was a steady hand. This off season Stearns improved the team. His plan is good but I question sometimes his execution. If he wants short-term contracts for flexibility then he should be willing to slightly overpay a player. Flaherty stated that he is not opposed to a short-term contract. He would be a significant upgrade to Canning if the Mets do a six-man rotation. He is younger and better than Manaea. Offer him 3/$78m and see how the negotiations progress. You never have enough pitching and the Mets have questions about their starting pitchers. The Mets just squeaked in to the playoffs last year. In the words of Sterns, Flaherty would be an "opportunity".
At this point, I'd be shocked if the Mets offered 3/$78 to a pitcher. I like Flaherty and would certainly have seen him as a better option than Canning. But it feels like a longshot that he'll wind up on the Mets. Maybe the best chance is a one-year deal.
Chris, I was thinking of when would be a good time to move Nimmo to first base this morning… and then I read your comment; It was genius!!! No time like the present, and I’m with ya! Did anyone see that Vientos was named the too 3B under 25? It’s a nice thing, leave him there.
The Dodgers last year had an entire bottom of the order that was on the interstate all year…. But they won it all on the backs of their system pitching depth with only a couple of healthy starters, and a few hitters that were in the stratosphere. The Giants won titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014 basically with Bumgarner winning three games and Posey doing the heavy lifting while role players did their job. You don’t need nine all stars. Also, in 2013 the Giants were under .500 with just 76 wins. Stuff happens sometimes and you need to keep your confidence. If the Mets win 50 games this year, it doesn’t mean Stearns became an idiot.
As noted above, the Mets need to identify their formula for success and not allow their weaknesses to darken their strengths. With all these guys being big swingers, I’d like to add Arraez from San Diego and bat him in the lower half of the order to create opportunities and deliver some two out base runners. I don’t want him hitting at the top of the lineup and hindering the more diversified hitters hitting there.
The Mets were vocal about the “huge roll” Acuna will have. Translates to: ‘he will play everywhere, backing up several positions, and get his at bats that way.’
Smokescreen. Dear god, I hope it's a smokescreen. The guy doesn't hit in AAA and now the Mets allegedly want to give him sporadic playing time? Sounds ... terrible.
I agree..the only way he is on the big club is if he earns the starting second base role with a monster spring. Otherwise he need to play every day in Syracuse.
I tend to agree with Chris about needed another big bat. While I would like to see Alonso back, there might be some other options. Twice this winter I have seen articles that suggested a change of scenery trade for Spencer Torkleson. Would I trust a breakout for him more than a breakout for Baty..I don't know. I would continue to monitor any moves that the Red Sox make and see if Triston Casas becomes available at all.
I am not a fan of bringing Iglesias back to block anyone - they need to go with either Acuna or Baty or both. They need a rookie or two each year.
I was somewhat intrigued by a move of McNeil to first base and am also thinking through Chris's Nimmo suggestion. I tend to agree with Brian that is a next year thing when there is a better chance of one of the prospects playing outfield.
Getting back to Brian's good thoughts of all that did not go quite right at various points of 2024, it just feels like the 2025 version will not be able to overcome that much. It just seems like there is more built in risk as things stand now. My usual optimism says McNeil will be back to his 2H24 self, the Taylor/Siri combo works great, Vientos continues his progression, Alvarez is back with had issues and Nimmo feet don't give him deflated stats. But, can I really ask all that? Oh yeah, the Winker/Marte platoon has to work out well too.
I saw a line from somebody and unfortunately only remember the line and not who to credit, but it was 'Cohen didn't sign Soto to finish in third place in their division'. I think they are better than the Braves, but I am surprised they haven't done a little more with the offense.
And I didn't get into the pitching. One more good starter would be great - Flaherty anyone? But I am not as worried about pitching now as I am the lineup.
It's my take that the Mets will get better production from their regulars than they received a year ago.
Additionally, are we sure that either the Braves or Phillies got better? That Philly team has a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30 who mostly stayed healthy last year. Is that going to happen again? And will the rotation have 3 guys who finish in the top 11 in Cy Young voting again?
What I’m trying to understand, is how Nimmo didn’t have surgery to fix the plantar fasciitis, so it’s still bothering him. I’m not in the mood to have these guys “tough through” injuries that hurt the team. Throw his ass on the DL and put Winker in LF.
Full recovery can take several months, and then probably a couple more to get to game fitness. Manes me wonder if the high stress on feet and running in spikes would make recovery complicated? Looks like it would be a total of 5 months or so to completely take care of, if surgery was a genuine path.
The difference between how I feel now and the 22-23 winter is the SPs. Its easy to feel good about a team with Scherzer in the rotation, and between Senga/Verlander there was hope that one of them could at least mostly replace deGrom. Right now the rotation is a veteran, a young guy, an accident waiting to happen, and two lottery tickets. Its hard to feel good about this rotation against the Braves and Phillies.
The difference really begins before the offseason. In 2022 we already felt like the Mets were a playoff contending team so it seemed natural that they would continue as they were. This year I would have been happy just to see relevant games in September. I remember a friend asking me my prediction for the Mets at the end of August and even then I believed that the Mets would miss the playoffs (though be close enough so that the blame could entirely be placed on Diaz). Failing to upgrade a team in which I already had low expectations should only maintain those low expectations.
Again, spot on, Brian. Despite Cohen’s money, the presence of the Dodgers and the legacy of the Yankees, it never pays to buy every shiny toy in the shop.
Stearns has a bigger task than at any time in Milwaukee: win a WS. So far I am not impressed with the bailing-wire and duct tape acquisitions. If I were Soto, I’d be disappointed. As Ive said before, Pete made his own future, and I have no feelings to just “pay the man”. But this team is short of a solid bat, and I think another strong starter. Counting on something like a Sproat promotion is more just high-stakes gambling, which Stearns is doing all over the field. Outside Soto, I do. Not see a single high impact bank-on signing except *perhaps* Manaea. Siri = no, Minter = No, Holmes = no, Montas = no etc.
I remain concerned that the infield shuffle with newbies is not going to go well. Right now the only certain IF position is SS. February is right around the corner. That is not a good sign. Let’s say Vientos to 1B, where he must learn a new position. 2B is a total mystery but it seems like some combo of McNeil/Acuna/?Maruicio is in play, leaving Baty to somehow figure out if he can become a major leaguer at 3B. It’s pretty disheartening.
I’d like to propose we solve this with a position move for a veteran: I think it’s high time to move Nimmo to 1B, much like Harper in Philly. This would get Nimmo off the long runs in the OF and lessen the plantar faciitis, limit the throwing for ol Google-arm, and let him focus on glove work where he is good. This keeps Vientos at 3B and leaves some competition for 2B. We have enough OF to make this happen.
The Nimmo to 1B is an interesting idea, although I'd say it's a 2026 or later move, depending how the recovery from p.f. goes this year.
Edit: This could be a solution if Drew Gilbert (or Carson Benge) can't hack it in CF.
My personal feeling is that the situation for this team is much more time-critical than others imagine. Nimmo is aging, Lindor is aging, Soto is at an apex, Manaea is aging, Diaz is aging. To me the time to make serious moves is right now and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. I dont buy into “make the post-season and let luck, chaos, and hot-streaks save the day.” I also do not see much in “making the post-season” as a goal unto itself. That’s my personal position. I want the team to win a WS and frame all my thinking around that singular goal. Usually there is some window when the stars align to be legitimate contenders, just like we saw with the Astros.
I’d move Nimmo to 1B right now, keep Vientos at 3B, make 2B a competition, then put Winker/Taylor in LF, Siri/Taylor in CF, and Soto in RF. This alignment means no new people need to come in and that the team can focus on pitching. With Gilbert and Benge in the wings for OF, I feel like that is reasonable.
I respect your opinion on the time to make "serious moves" is right now but I disagree completely.
Most people who study the issue view a player's peak occurring from age-26-to-30. That means the next five years for Soto will be his entire peak. And sure, it means that Lindor and Nimmo (and mostly Alonso) will be post-peak. And that's why you have to be able to transition minor leaguers into the equation. They're going to be paying for the decline years of Lindor and Nimmo. Hopefully Alvarez, Baty, Benge, Clifford, Gilbert, Mauricio, Vientos and Williams give them some cheap players to provide league-average and better production moving forward.
My opinion is that this is still a "learning" season for the Mets. They need to know if Vientos was a one-shot deal or if he'll be a key member of the team. They need to see more from all of the minor leaguers mentioned above. They need to see if Manaea and Peterson can reproduce what they did last year and if Senga can return to his 2023 form. And they also need to see if either Holmes or Montas can be a useful piece.
My hope is that at the end of the 2025 season, we'll have confirmed that Manaea, Peterson, Senga and Vientos are indeed key pieces. I hope a bullpen arm - Garrett? Nunez? SRF? steps up as a key piece, too. And I hope that a few of those minor leaguers take a step forward.
Ultimately, my feeling is that this team is too far away right now in late January. My hope is that enough questions will be answered positively to feel differently for the 2026 season.
Interesting. Your projection makes me think that your sense is the stars will align for a different group, one led by youngins and not the vets we presently have. So if I understand, your sense is that Soto is the advance guard and were gonna bring up Vientos, Baty, Benge, Sproat, Tong, etc as the key players with Soto. My personal feeling is that we use Nimmo, Manaea, Soto, Lindor, Diaz this minute and supplement them with possible youth talent. That’s why my timeframe centers on urgency.
It would be great if the current core can get it done in 2025. And that's not out of the question at all.
But with the exception of Diaz - who has an option - all of the guys you list will be there in 2026. According to Cot's, Diaz has to make his choice on both the '26 and '27 options at the same time. So, if he's back for '26, he'll be back in '27, too.
Ultimately, I think we're going to have more answers after 2025 than we have now. I see the '25-'26 offseason as potentially the one to push all the chips in., not now.
I’m intrigued by the Nimmo at 1B idea. I also think Winker could be a good solution and I wonder why they’ve not tried McNeil there.
Here’s another idea.
This guy is on the 40 man roster and slashed 310/417/577 with 21 HRs in 310 AAA ABs in 2023 and then followed up with 285/411/506, 11 HRs, in 235 ABs in 2024. He finished 2024 in the KBO and ripped an OPS of 1.080 with 10 dingers in 144 ABs. His K/BB rates seem fine (~20%/~10%) over his minor league career. He has bounced around a bit but he probably deserved a better shot at the majors, hence the Korean gig.
He plays 1B and is 29 yrs old. Jared Young should be in the conversation.
Hear hear.
So my takeaway is that they had a boat load of poor playing and injuries and still won 89 games and went very deep into the playoffs. Amazing Mets they are. I’m sure other teams had tons of issues as well. So if we get Alvarez to hit like he did in 2023 it takes some of the pressure of losing Alonso’s 30-40 dingers. If McNeil gets off to a good start that adds a great tool to the offense. I am still caught up in how many people think that anyone can play first base. This isn’t the olden days when a player was dump at first to keep their bat in the lineup when their legs prevented them from playing the outfield. With his versatility McNeil might actually be the best option at first. Then put Acuna at second, keep Vientos at third where he has established himself and package Baty in a deal to get a front line starter. Not to beat a horse to death, that has likely left the barn, but Alonso hit .273 with a .999 OPS, 4 HR and 20 RBI un the playoffs. Still some questions about this roster before they start printing playoff tickets and unless some kids explode onto the scene, I see lots of anxiety for us to chat about all season. The good teams generally don’t have so many question marks going into the season and yes they haven’t even gotten to SP yet, so I guess I can take a breath. 🤷♂️
It's surprising to me that someone who views HR as integral to a team's success would advocate playing McNeil at 1B and Acuna at 2B.
It is surprising that the Mets won 89 games and were a playoff team in 2024 with so much adversity to overcome. Give Stearns credit that he addressed all issues and Mendoza didn't panic and was a steady hand. This off season Stearns improved the team. His plan is good but I question sometimes his execution. If he wants short-term contracts for flexibility then he should be willing to slightly overpay a player. Flaherty stated that he is not opposed to a short-term contract. He would be a significant upgrade to Canning if the Mets do a six-man rotation. He is younger and better than Manaea. Offer him 3/$78m and see how the negotiations progress. You never have enough pitching and the Mets have questions about their starting pitchers. The Mets just squeaked in to the playoffs last year. In the words of Sterns, Flaherty would be an "opportunity".
At this point, I'd be shocked if the Mets offered 3/$78 to a pitcher. I like Flaherty and would certainly have seen him as a better option than Canning. But it feels like a longshot that he'll wind up on the Mets. Maybe the best chance is a one-year deal.
Chris, I was thinking of when would be a good time to move Nimmo to first base this morning… and then I read your comment; It was genius!!! No time like the present, and I’m with ya! Did anyone see that Vientos was named the too 3B under 25? It’s a nice thing, leave him there.
The Dodgers last year had an entire bottom of the order that was on the interstate all year…. But they won it all on the backs of their system pitching depth with only a couple of healthy starters, and a few hitters that were in the stratosphere. The Giants won titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014 basically with Bumgarner winning three games and Posey doing the heavy lifting while role players did their job. You don’t need nine all stars. Also, in 2013 the Giants were under .500 with just 76 wins. Stuff happens sometimes and you need to keep your confidence. If the Mets win 50 games this year, it doesn’t mean Stearns became an idiot.
As noted above, the Mets need to identify their formula for success and not allow their weaknesses to darken their strengths. With all these guys being big swingers, I’d like to add Arraez from San Diego and bat him in the lower half of the order to create opportunities and deliver some two out base runners. I don’t want him hitting at the top of the lineup and hindering the more diversified hitters hitting there.
The Mets were vocal about the “huge roll” Acuna will have. Translates to: ‘he will play everywhere, backing up several positions, and get his at bats that way.’
Smokescreen. Dear god, I hope it's a smokescreen. The guy doesn't hit in AAA and now the Mets allegedly want to give him sporadic playing time? Sounds ... terrible.
I agree..the only way he is on the big club is if he earns the starting second base role with a monster spring. Otherwise he need to play every day in Syracuse.
I get the same feeling Gus. I think the Mets have plans to get Acuna quite a few ABs in the Queens.
I tend to agree with Chris about needed another big bat. While I would like to see Alonso back, there might be some other options. Twice this winter I have seen articles that suggested a change of scenery trade for Spencer Torkleson. Would I trust a breakout for him more than a breakout for Baty..I don't know. I would continue to monitor any moves that the Red Sox make and see if Triston Casas becomes available at all.
I am not a fan of bringing Iglesias back to block anyone - they need to go with either Acuna or Baty or both. They need a rookie or two each year.
I was somewhat intrigued by a move of McNeil to first base and am also thinking through Chris's Nimmo suggestion. I tend to agree with Brian that is a next year thing when there is a better chance of one of the prospects playing outfield.
Getting back to Brian's good thoughts of all that did not go quite right at various points of 2024, it just feels like the 2025 version will not be able to overcome that much. It just seems like there is more built in risk as things stand now. My usual optimism says McNeil will be back to his 2H24 self, the Taylor/Siri combo works great, Vientos continues his progression, Alvarez is back with had issues and Nimmo feet don't give him deflated stats. But, can I really ask all that? Oh yeah, the Winker/Marte platoon has to work out well too.
I saw a line from somebody and unfortunately only remember the line and not who to credit, but it was 'Cohen didn't sign Soto to finish in third place in their division'. I think they are better than the Braves, but I am surprised they haven't done a little more with the offense.
And I didn't get into the pitching. One more good starter would be great - Flaherty anyone? But I am not as worried about pitching now as I am the lineup.
It's my take that the Mets will get better production from their regulars than they received a year ago.
Additionally, are we sure that either the Braves or Phillies got better? That Philly team has a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30 who mostly stayed healthy last year. Is that going to happen again? And will the rotation have 3 guys who finish in the top 11 in Cy Young voting again?
I am pretty sure the Braves are not better and you are right about the Phillies.
I am just not sure it is a slam dunk that the Mets are better than either IF everything goes to plan for all three clubs - a big if.
I also think the Nats are probably a little better this year.
What I’m trying to understand, is how Nimmo didn’t have surgery to fix the plantar fasciitis, so it’s still bothering him. I’m not in the mood to have these guys “tough through” injuries that hurt the team. Throw his ass on the DL and put Winker in LF.
It's only minor surgery if it's on someone else.
HSS, a sponsor of the Mets, treats plantar faciitis via surgery as a last resort.
https://www.hss.edu/condition-list_plantar-fasciitis.asp#:~:text=For%20those%20with%20very%20serious,tissue%20from%20the%20plantar%20fascia.
Full recovery can take several months, and then probably a couple more to get to game fitness. Manes me wonder if the high stress on feet and running in spikes would make recovery complicated? Looks like it would be a total of 5 months or so to completely take care of, if surgery was a genuine path.
The difference between how I feel now and the 22-23 winter is the SPs. Its easy to feel good about a team with Scherzer in the rotation, and between Senga/Verlander there was hope that one of them could at least mostly replace deGrom. Right now the rotation is a veteran, a young guy, an accident waiting to happen, and two lottery tickets. Its hard to feel good about this rotation against the Braves and Phillies.
The difference really begins before the offseason. In 2022 we already felt like the Mets were a playoff contending team so it seemed natural that they would continue as they were. This year I would have been happy just to see relevant games in September. I remember a friend asking me my prediction for the Mets at the end of August and even then I believed that the Mets would miss the playoffs (though be close enough so that the blame could entirely be placed on Diaz). Failing to upgrade a team in which I already had low expectations should only maintain those low expectations.