The Mets' quest to use 12 or fewer starting pitchers in 2025
The Mets used 12 different starting pitchers in 2024, which is a pretty solid total these days. For a comparison, the Phillies used 12, the Braves used 13 and the Dodgers used 17 a season ago. This year, the Mets came to camp with eight starters in place and two of those have already succumbed to an injury. Will they be able to use 12 or fewer starters again in 2025?
Let’s start with examining how the 2024 season went. With Kodai Senga on the IL, the Mets started out with a five-man rotation. The starters from Opening Day were Adrian Houser, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino. Manaea, Quintana and Severino were fixtures all year, combining for 94 starts.
Megill made just one start before landing on the IL with a shoulder strain. He didn’t return to the majors until the third week of May. For those who think that injuries to Manaea and Frankie Montas this year doom the Mets to a revolving door with their starters, they’d do well to remember that the first seven weeks of the season, they received one start combined from Megill and Senga.
An early doubleheader necessitated a start from Jose Butto, who allowed 1 ER in 6 IP. The Mets were so horrified by that start that they jumped thru hoops to not give Butto another one, instead opting for the Julio Teheran circus. After Teheran was every bit as bad as expected, they relented and turned back to Butto.
Meanwhile, Adrian Houser was getting lit up, finally replaced by Christian Scott. The Mets saw the return of Megill and also gave a spot start to Joey Lucchesi. Despite a 3.08 ERA in seven starts, Butto was sent back to the minors. When he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.
David Peterson made it back to the rotation on May 29 and the Mets went several turns thru the rotaion with Quintana, Megill, Peterson, Severino and Manaea, with Scott being returned to the minors after five starts and a 3.90 ERA. Scott’s stay in the minors lasted about a month and he replaced Megill in the rotation.
Scott lasted four turns in the rotation before coming down with his season-ending injury. He was replaced by Senga, who lasted for a start before returning to the IL, replaced by newly acquired Paul Blackburn. Then Blackburn went down with his season-ending injury and the Mets replaced him with Megill. They rode that same quintet thru the rest of the regular season, until giving Lucchesi a start in the final game of the year after they clinched a playoff spot in Game 161.
The Mets had great fortune with the health of Manaea, Quintana and Severino. But there were also the season-ending injuries to Blackburn, Scott and Senga – with those three combining for just 15 starts. And Megill’s season was certainly impacted by injury, too. Plus, Peterson’s hip injury delayed the start of his season. So, we have three starters who pitched the entire year and five starters who missed significant time to injuries. That doesn’t seem incredibly fortunate to me. It certainly wasn’t as good as the Phillies getting 123 starts from their top four starters.
With their plan to use six starters the majority of the season – assuming health from Senga – the Mets will not get a repeat of 94 starts from their top three pitchers. But that’s okay. The question is if they can get 94 from their top four starters. The news on Manaea’s recovery has been positive and he may just miss three or so starts at the beginning of the year. Can he combine with Clay Holmes, Peterson and Senga and produce 94 starts?
That’s the million-dollar question.
If the Mets can get 40-plus starts from Megill, Blackburn and Griffin Canning, they’ll be in great shape to once again be around a dozen starters for the entire season. Hopefully, there won’t be a repeat of the Teheran debacle. And if they can get some sub-5.00 ERA starts from youngsters who will begin the year in the minors – so much the better.
It’s also important to remember that the three pitchers who turned into workhorses for the 2024 Mets didn’t perform that way in 2023. Manaea, Quintana and Severino combined for 282.2 IP and a 4.90 ERA in ’23. Holmes, Manaea and Peterson combined for 365.2 IP and a 3.22 ERA in ’24. There’s a whole lot more reason to feel optimistic about this year’s trio than Manaea, Quintana and Severino a year ago at this same time.
Of course, nothing means anything until this year’s starters go out and perform. If you’re pessimistic, you can find a bunch of things to support your case. It’s just that for me, knowing how little the Mets got from Megill and Senga the first half of 2024, the fact that Manaea and Montas will open the season on the IL isn’t a crushing blow. The key will be not suffering any more injuries right away.
And if the healthy starters want to keep up their strong early results in Grapefruit League play once the regular season starts, that’ll be okay, too. Last Spring, Manaea had a 3.24 ERA and Severino had a 1.29 mark. And Butto had a 0.90 ERA compared to Houser’s 5.25 mark. If only the Mets listened…
I think Stearns has done a nice job of building depth and flexibility into this staff. I have zero regrets that he didn’t sign one of the big names to a long term deal and think the quantity versus quality makes sense given the fragility of all pitchers. It’s a crap shoot and I’d rather spread my bets around the table. That said, I did read (or think I did) that they signed Tehran to a minor league deal, so let’s hope that this horror movie does not get a sequel.
Quite the opposite, the Yankees look like they are needing at least one starter. The Mets match up well in a trade with the extra starting pitching. Might the Yankees be interested in one, say Clayton Holmes?