Thoughts on Pete Alonso, Tanner Scott, Luis Arraez and more

This email exchange was started yesterday, when news of the Winker signing first emerged. It seemed like a good time to check in with unabashed Alonso fan, Chris Flanders.

Brian: The latest rumors regarding Pete Alonso is that the Mets now expect him to sign elsewhere. And perhaps in a related move, the Mets re-signed Jesse Winker to a one-year deal. As a longtime big fan of Alonso, what are your feelings on this development? And do you anticipate money that perhaps was allocated to an Alonso signing now showing up elsewhere on the roster?

Chris: I’ll believe it when I see that Alonso has signed elsewhere. Look, I think it would be sad for him not to be a Met, but this is the world we live in. If Freddie Freeman can leave ATL, then Alonso can leave the Mets. I do struggle with the gobs of money versus life fulfillment/happiness when the money under every circumstance is generational. If I made 100M$ before 35, I figure I could make it for life (LOL). As I’ve made clear plenty of times, I don’t care at all about Cohen’s money, but I’m not in the pay Alonso anything simply because he does not warrant a 7-year deal. If he wants to go to Toronto and languish at the bottom of the standings to make more money, then all the power to him. I won’t cry. As for the 90M$ allocated to Pete, I suspect that it’s not burning a hole in Cohen’s pocket, so I don’t believe it just gets reassigned. Truthfully, I still think this team is more a Wild Card team as is, thus I would be hoping for one more bat and one more starter. What’s your thoughts on reassigning the money that Alonso would have had, should he decline?

Brian: Regardless of Cohen's wealth, my take is that in one way or another, he's given David Stearns a budget. Maybe it's not hard capped but it's not a blank check, either. If you put me in charge, the pivot would be towards Tanner Scott. Yeah, you're likely to have to give him high-end closer's money to be a setup man. And there's a good argument that's too much money to invest in the bullpen. Still, you can probably get him at a three-year deal (3/$54?) - which would value him in the middle of his 2023 and 2024 numbers. And the Mets could use a healthy arm who's delivered what Scott has the past two years. I couldn't see Alonso at somewhere around $25 million and Scott at $18 million. But Scott at $18 and another hitter at $12 million or so? That seems more than doable, with the added bonus of not completely blocking a young bat, given that you're not signing someone to a multi-year deal.

My view of the offense as currently constructed is more positive than yours. A shocker, isn't it? Regardless, it would be nice to add another league-average bat to the equation. Someone in the comments section the other day suggested Luis Arraez, who while far from my favorite, is someone who would fit in the lineup with his one-year contract. Arraez had nice numbers in 2022 and 2023 before falling off last year. Yeah, he's got to run an ultra-high BABIP - since it's all singles - but he can do it. What's your take on Arraez?

Chris: Oh, I’m sure there’s a budget, but I don’t think Stearns will feel compelled to hit it. Shocker to say the least! I guess I’m not a believer in Nimmo and all his health issues, making me think we need more bang in the order. I’d sure love to have Alonso hitting next to Soto. Arraez is an ok guy but just not what I think the offense needs. He’d be cheaper. His OPS is all on base and I know that makes a lot of people weak in the knees, but I feel we have enough of that. What do you think it would take to get him?

You don't have to convince me that adding a guy like Scott is a winner move. And if you divide up the money for Alonso, I’m sure you can make some winner Stearns-like moves. But all this does for me is remind me that I’m not a believer in the rotation - I would like a proven starter still, we do need another reliever, and I think Alonso (or some other bopper) should be part of the offseason. Everything goes through the Dodgers. So how do you see the Mets doing facing the Dodgers with the teams as currently assembled?

Brian: Nimmo has played 454 games the past three years - it seems like we shouldn't be worried about his health at this point. Now, if you want to be worried about his decline after the All-Star break last year, that's another thing entirely...

It's tough to say what it would take to get Arraez. The Padres are in a state of flux, with challenges to ownership/majority partner. They may not be willing to make any moves until that gets straightened out. Or they might be grateful for the chance to dump salary. I wouldn't give up much to get him - maybe a top 30 prospect or something like what they gave up to get Winker last year.

The Dodgers have to be considered the top dog with what they have on hand. And I'm not sure the Mets could have done anything this offseason to change that, or at least nothing that wouldn't have moved their payroll past $400 million. Yet the gap doesn't feel like it was in 2017, when the Dodgers swept them and had a 57-15 run advantage.

My last question to you is: Do you see Carlos Mendoza riding starters longer than he did last year, especially in the first half of the season? If they're getting extra rest with the 6-man rotation, shouldn't they be allowed to go longer?

Chris: Oh, I’m worried about Nimmo’s decline across the board. I can’t help but wonder whether that bad paper is at the root of Cohen not going deep on Alonso. I just saw that The Mets offered 3/$70 for Alonso, and that clearly will never get it done. But what that tells me is that they have moved on and heading a different direction. Can you see Anthony Santander as a DH/1B option?

Basically, all roads lead right to LA, so the Mets are gonna need to do something to overcome that hurdle or spending all that cash on Soto is sort of lost. I look at their lineup and rotation and just realize, the Mets are a long way away from that. Unless more top talent comes in, I see post-season turbulence for the future.

Mendoza will not be letting pitchers go longer than two turns through. That’s the going rate in the industry. You know I think starters going longer is a big part of more wins, but I look at the somewhat nebulous rotation and don’t see it. Just how many innings can you envision coming from Kodai Senga after his year-long IL stint, Clay Holmes turning into a starter, whatever David Peterson can give. Maybe Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Brian: Signing Winker pretty much closes the door on Santander.