Let’s be honest. Three years at $70 million is an insulting offer. As insulting as Pete asking for $93 million. The Winker signing was one they needed to make and I don’t believe is connected with not resigning Pete. Still hoping $80 million can get it done, because if they move Vientos to first base and start the third base crew with Mauricio, Baty and Acuna, they have managed to weaken both corner and infield spots. Not happy with being the third best team in the division.
I agree that I don't think that Winker signing excludes an Alonso possibility. The Mets have a lineup that likely begins Lindor, Soto and has a ton of question marks after that.
To me, the Mets did not give Winker everyday player money and he will be more of a Left-handed DH and spot starter at 1st. The Mets still need a #3/#4 hitter to flesh out their lineup. If neither Baty nor Mauricio is your projected 3B of the future, Bregman becomes more logical than Alonso if they are around the same cost.
The wildcard is if the Mets could trade for Vladimir Guerrero Jr to replace Alonso. The suggested deals have been a bit steep for a 1 year rental player (Williams + Sproat + Clifford) was what I saw. If Williams can be swapped for Drew Gilbert or Sproat for say... Tidwell and Clifford for Parada I think that becomes more realistic for the Mets to swallow.
Lindor, Soto, Guerrero would be a pretty mighty 1,2,3 by any accounting.
"Insulting" is also the first word that came to mind if 3/$70m is true. The postseason by itself shows that Alonso's career as an all star is not over.
I agree with Chris that each of one more SP, RP, and starting hitter is needed. Right now the rotation feels like Manaea + Peterson + a lot of hopes and prayers. Winker makes me comfortable knowing that Marte will not be fully responsible for DH but he does not satisfy the starting hitter need. Relying on Baty/Mauricio/Acuna to do anything before summer does not sound like a team that is serious about making the playoffs.
Re: Nimmo - he was basically playing on 1 foot the 2nd half of last season. That counts for something. The problem is that Plantar Fasciitis is really tricky to manage and extremely painful so he may need more rest than usual (perhaps as a LH DH once or twice a week).
Re: Alonso - i've gone back and forth but I really can't find fault with the Mets approach. Alonso is the one who turned down a reasonable extension and then hired Boras. The latest Mets offer, when factoring in the extension would have bought out Alonso's last year of arbitration, is actually a higher aav than Eppler was willing to give, and would give him a higher annual than Matt Olsen. Plus if the opt-out reporting is true, Alonso could have reset his market next year without the QO attached. Walker got 3 years/66 so yeah you can quibble with 3/70 vs 3/75 (which is where I would have gone) because of the age difference, but that gets balanced out somewhat by the extreme difference in level of defense. Alonso has misplayed or misconstrued his market and the Mets shouldn't be bidding against themselves. Clearly, no one else is offering Alonso a better deal. Would not be surprised if he still ends up on the team. I don't think Winker has any impact on this.
Re: 3rd base. Maybe the plan is to put McNeil at 3b and hope the 2nd half surge was real prior to injury. Acuna/Baty at 2b perhaps feels better offensively with Vientos at 1b.
Re: Bullpen. Using the $30 million allocated to Alonso and getting Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates would certainly go along way towards creating a super pen which we know has worked for other teams in the past. A backend of Diaz, Scott, Yates, Garret, Nunez is pretty damn strong. I don't think the starters will go much more than 5 or 6 until the weather gets better. It can be argued that the reason they improved so much in the 2nd half was because their starters load management was watched in the first half. So maybe it was an intentional plan to limit them early on with Stearns knowing that he always expects to add fresh bullpen pieces later in the season making him less concerned about overworked bullpens early on.
I agree with most of the comments - I am more in Chris's camp about Pete I guess. It would be sad. I get it with all the drill-down poor stats from last year, but there is an unmearsurable angle. Pete is still one of the premier power hitters in the game and his presence in the line-up is beyond league average. He has been a really big part of bringing this team back to the playoff caliber team they are over the last few years. Like any hitter, he will have better years than others. Last year was a bit down for him, but I do not believe he is done.
I see the team as one big bat short of top shelf. Luis Arraez is not that bat. I could go for Vlad, but if he wants $500M for 12 years, I am a hard no on that.
I am not uncomfortable with the starting pitching. I think they are actually OK with what they have IF Senga is healthy. Starting pitching is over rated at this point as they only go 5-6 innings. I think it is screwy to pay a ton of money for starters. Stearns approach last year worked well and can work again.
On the other hand, a strong pen is needed to pick up the starters that aren't throwing as many innings, but I don't think big money to one or two guys as set up men is the answer either. I am not a fan of a Tanner Scott signings. Nothing against him, but relief pitchers in general are more volatile than any other position and closer money for a non-closer doesn't make much sense to me, even if it provides good insurance if Diaz falters. I would rather go less for Ryne Stanek and add another lefty if possible (Scott Alexander?)
To me, get a killer offense and let's get to some games that matter. If they can score 800 or more runs, their pitching will hold it together well enough to win a lot of games.
The last thing anyone should want is to pay someone based on what they did 3 or more years ago. Frankie Montas had a 4.0 fWAR in 2021 but no one thinks he should be paid $30 million or more.
Starting in 2022, Alonso has put up seasons worth this much - according to FG - on the free agent market: $30.4, $22.8 and $16.7
If we use a simple weighted average of his last three season - three for the most recent, two for two years ago and one for three years ago - we get $126.1 million. Then we divide that by six (for the number of the weights applied) and get $21.02 million per year. So, a three-year contract should be in the $63-$64 million range. Stearns offered $68-$70 million.
Only people who are bad at math should be insulted by this.
The problem with using the FG free agent values is that these figures are abstract aggregates. They can give you a general vision for an average team, but with the Mets' money and the surprise success last year this is not an average team.
$1,000,000 has less value for a playoff contending team than it does for a non-contending team. $1,000,000 also has less value for a large market team than for a small market team. If the Mets were in rebuild mode circa 2012 then it makes alot more sense to pass on Alonso. But given the context of a surprise NLCS appearance, a Juan Soto signing, and zero other 3 WAR first basemen on the market, it sounds ridiculous to ignore this context and refuse 3/$90m to Alonso because "that's what the numbers say." Its the difference between math and social science.
Though if these Sproat for Guerrero rumors are true then nothing I said about Alonso matters because I never envisioned Guerrero to be available. I will remember to defer to Stearns' geniusness if this happens.
A.J. Minter signing solidified the bullpen and it's better than 2024.
Winker signing paired with Marte is better than Martinez of 2024. It doesn't necessarily rule out signing Alonso. If Pete wants to revisit the 3/$70m there shouldn't be a problem with that. Soto makes the offense better than the 2024 Alonso offense. The Mets are a playoff team with or without Alonso.
The starting pitching is also better than 2024. Senga replaces Quintana, Holmes replaces Severino and Montas replaces Megill. If they used a six man rotation then Canning , Blackburn or Megill can are more than capable.
The Mets were a playoff team in 2024. This offseason Stearns along with Soto, Senga and Minter has made improvements.
Great reading and great comments, and I lean more towards Brian than Chris. I do also feel that the 3/$70 hurt Alonso’s feelings, but that’s more of an Alonso problem than a Mets problem. When Alonso last year was interviewed about his year and he said that he was pleased with it, because after all, he was an all-star, he should be taken at his word. Does Alonso intend on fixing his chase issues?
Does Alonso intend on improving his defense?
Sounds to me like he isn’t and while he probably can be a little bit better than he was last year, we may not be getting too much better.
How about deferrals? How about incentives? Alonso appears to think he has carried this team and as I wrote last offseason, he had the third best WAR on his team for several years: Nimmo and Lindor are better than him and Alonso gets the all-star invitations.
Off topic: concerning Winker, I don’t like it. Not that I hate it, but I would rather have Profar. Winker has not been a good player other than last year’s Washington numbers in a while. I don’t care how well he can slam a helmet. I’m disappointed in Stearns about this one, but give him credit on Minter.
Let’s be honest. Three years at $70 million is an insulting offer. As insulting as Pete asking for $93 million. The Winker signing was one they needed to make and I don’t believe is connected with not resigning Pete. Still hoping $80 million can get it done, because if they move Vientos to first base and start the third base crew with Mauricio, Baty and Acuna, they have managed to weaken both corner and infield spots. Not happy with being the third best team in the division.
I agree that I don't think that Winker signing excludes an Alonso possibility. The Mets have a lineup that likely begins Lindor, Soto and has a ton of question marks after that.
To me, the Mets did not give Winker everyday player money and he will be more of a Left-handed DH and spot starter at 1st. The Mets still need a #3/#4 hitter to flesh out their lineup. If neither Baty nor Mauricio is your projected 3B of the future, Bregman becomes more logical than Alonso if they are around the same cost.
The wildcard is if the Mets could trade for Vladimir Guerrero Jr to replace Alonso. The suggested deals have been a bit steep for a 1 year rental player (Williams + Sproat + Clifford) was what I saw. If Williams can be swapped for Drew Gilbert or Sproat for say... Tidwell and Clifford for Parada I think that becomes more realistic for the Mets to swallow.
Lindor, Soto, Guerrero would be a pretty mighty 1,2,3 by any accounting.
"Insulting" is also the first word that came to mind if 3/$70m is true. The postseason by itself shows that Alonso's career as an all star is not over.
I agree with Chris that each of one more SP, RP, and starting hitter is needed. Right now the rotation feels like Manaea + Peterson + a lot of hopes and prayers. Winker makes me comfortable knowing that Marte will not be fully responsible for DH but he does not satisfy the starting hitter need. Relying on Baty/Mauricio/Acuna to do anything before summer does not sound like a team that is serious about making the playoffs.
Re: Nimmo - he was basically playing on 1 foot the 2nd half of last season. That counts for something. The problem is that Plantar Fasciitis is really tricky to manage and extremely painful so he may need more rest than usual (perhaps as a LH DH once or twice a week).
Re: Alonso - i've gone back and forth but I really can't find fault with the Mets approach. Alonso is the one who turned down a reasonable extension and then hired Boras. The latest Mets offer, when factoring in the extension would have bought out Alonso's last year of arbitration, is actually a higher aav than Eppler was willing to give, and would give him a higher annual than Matt Olsen. Plus if the opt-out reporting is true, Alonso could have reset his market next year without the QO attached. Walker got 3 years/66 so yeah you can quibble with 3/70 vs 3/75 (which is where I would have gone) because of the age difference, but that gets balanced out somewhat by the extreme difference in level of defense. Alonso has misplayed or misconstrued his market and the Mets shouldn't be bidding against themselves. Clearly, no one else is offering Alonso a better deal. Would not be surprised if he still ends up on the team. I don't think Winker has any impact on this.
Re: 3rd base. Maybe the plan is to put McNeil at 3b and hope the 2nd half surge was real prior to injury. Acuna/Baty at 2b perhaps feels better offensively with Vientos at 1b.
Re: Bullpen. Using the $30 million allocated to Alonso and getting Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates would certainly go along way towards creating a super pen which we know has worked for other teams in the past. A backend of Diaz, Scott, Yates, Garret, Nunez is pretty damn strong. I don't think the starters will go much more than 5 or 6 until the weather gets better. It can be argued that the reason they improved so much in the 2nd half was because their starters load management was watched in the first half. So maybe it was an intentional plan to limit them early on with Stearns knowing that he always expects to add fresh bullpen pieces later in the season making him less concerned about overworked bullpens early on.
I agree with most of the comments - I am more in Chris's camp about Pete I guess. It would be sad. I get it with all the drill-down poor stats from last year, but there is an unmearsurable angle. Pete is still one of the premier power hitters in the game and his presence in the line-up is beyond league average. He has been a really big part of bringing this team back to the playoff caliber team they are over the last few years. Like any hitter, he will have better years than others. Last year was a bit down for him, but I do not believe he is done.
I see the team as one big bat short of top shelf. Luis Arraez is not that bat. I could go for Vlad, but if he wants $500M for 12 years, I am a hard no on that.
I am not uncomfortable with the starting pitching. I think they are actually OK with what they have IF Senga is healthy. Starting pitching is over rated at this point as they only go 5-6 innings. I think it is screwy to pay a ton of money for starters. Stearns approach last year worked well and can work again.
On the other hand, a strong pen is needed to pick up the starters that aren't throwing as many innings, but I don't think big money to one or two guys as set up men is the answer either. I am not a fan of a Tanner Scott signings. Nothing against him, but relief pitchers in general are more volatile than any other position and closer money for a non-closer doesn't make much sense to me, even if it provides good insurance if Diaz falters. I would rather go less for Ryne Stanek and add another lefty if possible (Scott Alexander?)
To me, get a killer offense and let's get to some games that matter. If they can score 800 or more runs, their pitching will hold it together well enough to win a lot of games.
The last thing anyone should want is to pay someone based on what they did 3 or more years ago. Frankie Montas had a 4.0 fWAR in 2021 but no one thinks he should be paid $30 million or more.
Starting in 2022, Alonso has put up seasons worth this much - according to FG - on the free agent market: $30.4, $22.8 and $16.7
If we use a simple weighted average of his last three season - three for the most recent, two for two years ago and one for three years ago - we get $126.1 million. Then we divide that by six (for the number of the weights applied) and get $21.02 million per year. So, a three-year contract should be in the $63-$64 million range. Stearns offered $68-$70 million.
Only people who are bad at math should be insulted by this.
The problem with using the FG free agent values is that these figures are abstract aggregates. They can give you a general vision for an average team, but with the Mets' money and the surprise success last year this is not an average team.
$1,000,000 has less value for a playoff contending team than it does for a non-contending team. $1,000,000 also has less value for a large market team than for a small market team. If the Mets were in rebuild mode circa 2012 then it makes alot more sense to pass on Alonso. But given the context of a surprise NLCS appearance, a Juan Soto signing, and zero other 3 WAR first basemen on the market, it sounds ridiculous to ignore this context and refuse 3/$90m to Alonso because "that's what the numbers say." Its the difference between math and social science.
Though if these Sproat for Guerrero rumors are true then nothing I said about Alonso matters because I never envisioned Guerrero to be available. I will remember to defer to Stearns' geniusness if this happens.
Overpaying for declining assets is a good way to torpedo a team.
What you should remember is your desire to give Alonso a 3/$90 deal and see how he performs the next three years.
And just like that - AJ Minter to the Mets for 2 years / 22 million. Bonus points for detracting from the Braves. Solid add.
Diaz
Minter
Nunez
Garrett
SRF
Butto
D Young
G Canning/Ty Megill
If he’s healthy
Minter was a really good pick up for our left handed set up man. We still need a big bat. If we know it, Stearns also knows it.
A.J. Minter signing solidified the bullpen and it's better than 2024.
Winker signing paired with Marte is better than Martinez of 2024. It doesn't necessarily rule out signing Alonso. If Pete wants to revisit the 3/$70m there shouldn't be a problem with that. Soto makes the offense better than the 2024 Alonso offense. The Mets are a playoff team with or without Alonso.
The starting pitching is also better than 2024. Senga replaces Quintana, Holmes replaces Severino and Montas replaces Megill. If they used a six man rotation then Canning , Blackburn or Megill can are more than capable.
The Mets were a playoff team in 2024. This offseason Stearns along with Soto, Senga and Minter has made improvements.
Great reading and great comments, and I lean more towards Brian than Chris. I do also feel that the 3/$70 hurt Alonso’s feelings, but that’s more of an Alonso problem than a Mets problem. When Alonso last year was interviewed about his year and he said that he was pleased with it, because after all, he was an all-star, he should be taken at his word. Does Alonso intend on fixing his chase issues?
Does Alonso intend on improving his defense?
Sounds to me like he isn’t and while he probably can be a little bit better than he was last year, we may not be getting too much better.
How about deferrals? How about incentives? Alonso appears to think he has carried this team and as I wrote last offseason, he had the third best WAR on his team for several years: Nimmo and Lindor are better than him and Alonso gets the all-star invitations.
"More of an Alonso problem than a Mets problem."
Well said, Gus
Off topic: concerning Winker, I don’t like it. Not that I hate it, but I would rather have Profar. Winker has not been a good player other than last year’s Washington numbers in a while. I don’t care how well he can slam a helmet. I’m disappointed in Stearns about this one, but give him credit on Minter.