Everybody wants a survey for everything you do, so my version of a survey:
Pete Alonso is 4 years, 3 months, and 9 days older than Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
As a Mets fan, knowing that the Mets have Juan Soto tied up for 15 years, Francisco Lindor through 2031 and Brandon Nimmo through 2030 (and Bobby Bonilla for another few years), would you rather have:
(a) Pete Alonso signed now for 5 years and $140M.
(b) A stopgap first baseman in 2025 and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. signed next year for 12 years and $350 to $500M.
(c) Mark Vientos moved permanently to first (and use 3rd base as the position to fill with either prospects or free agents/trades)
(d) Bank on Ryan Clifford being better than Lucas Duda.
Lucas Duda played 10 years in the majors and had back-to-back 3.0 fWAR seasons once they stopped trying to make him an outfielder. Clifford doesn't need to be better than Duda to be a worthwhile option at 1B at minimum wage.
I gotta disagree with you on Duda. He had two decent years. In his 10 years of playing, he played the equivalent of 6 full years of games and averaged 1.3 WAR, with his two OK years pulling that average way up. Pete has had 3 of his 6 years with WAR greater than Duda's best. A team cannot win with Duda level production from the first baseman.
From a production standpoint, Alonso's 23-24 seasons were disappointing primarily in the batting average column. 34 home runs in his down year were 4 more than Duda ever hit in a season. In '23, Alonso hit 46 HRs with 118 RBI, 26 more RBI than Duda's best season. Alonso seems be being judged against his 53 homer season, Alonso's last two years have been quite productive when looking at most other players in the league.
I guess we'll need to agree to disagree on the Alonso's trajectory. I don't happen to believe his slope will continue downward.
If the Mets are inclined to dole out a 5 year contract then they should signed Bregman instead of Alonso. Bregman had 118 OPS+ last year to Alonso 122 OPS+ but Bregman would solidify the infield defense. Bregman had a fWAR 4.1 and 14.0 in the last 3 years. By comparison, had a Alonso 2.1 fWAR and 8.7. If Stearns wants to take on another contract then Bregman would be the better choice.
It is unfortunate that Boras represents both of them. Stearns can't play one against the other.
I also have a counter viewpoint on Bregman as well. Unless you are planning on switching him to first base quickly, the chance that he will age better than Pete is probably not great. Third base is a much harder on the body and breakdowns happen sooner. There are a few that last well into their thirties, but they are exceptions (B. Robinson comes to mind). It certainly appears that Nelson Arenado is on the decline. He could bounce back, but I would bet on Bregman following Arenado's trajectory rather than Robinson's. I think a 5 year deal to Bregman (who is a year older than Pete) would be unwise.
So, here's how two players have done in fWAR since 2021 up to 2024:
Player A: 3.5, 3.8, 2.8, 2.1
Player B: 2.1, 5.4, 4.5, 4.1
If you have to sign one of these and you pick Player A -- you're making a mistake. Player B is Bregman and the low 2021 output came in his only injury-shortened season of his MLB career. Just like Alonso, he's trending downwards. But he's starting from a much higher level and isn't falling as fast.
I love your line above "The beauty of this is that in a few years we'll see how it all works out" (paraphrased just a bit). There are a lot of comments that I make that I would love to be organized enough to see 5 or 8 years later.
The New York Mets today announced that they have agreed to terms on one-year contracts with all six arbitration eligible players - RHP Paul Blackburn, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP David Peterson, outfielders Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor and catcher Luis Torrens.
They already agreed to a deal with SRF, so I think this means all of the arb-eligible guys have signed.
Whenever I have read anything his agent says, other than not wanting the pressure of a big city - which I believe was a mistake to say - it seems Sasaki would prefer NYC. He wants endorsements, recognition of being the best at his trade, the ace of his staff and the attention that goes with it, and a winning and supportive organization. That sounds like either the Mets or the Yankees. I know that the Yankees have Garrett Cole, but I have read that Japan has many Yankees fans. So, while Sasaki did give props to Hefner and no other pitching coach, if he has the guts to go after and want his own attention, he goes to NYC. Landing Soto gives the Mets a chance, but the Yankees pivoted nicely and filled out their team.
If the Mets honor their deal with Elian Pena, there's almost no money left for Sasaki. Maybe they can get creative with his deal but I'm unsure if it would be kosher to pay him $1 million from this year's IFA budget and then pay him $20 million next year from regular salary. Ohtani didn't get that kind of deal, so I'm guessing Sasaki won't, either.
Its January 9th. We still need a first baseman, another really good starter, another outfielder, a DH and a couple of good relievers. Its about time we start filling those holes. Until I see the final roster I will be antsy about this.
The big question is does Alonso want a shot at a ring? If so he needs to sign with a real contender willing to make that happen and the teams left, other than the Mets, will muddle along and never get there. Don’t blame the players for getting as much as they can, but how much is enough? So back to what Mike said, they need a front line starter, another BP piece and a first baseman/third baseman so they are not the third best team in their division. And what makes everyone think Vientos would be a good first baseman since his experience at that position is nearly non existent?
The big question is does Cohen want a shot at the ring? Vientos had a 2.9 fWAR compared the Alonso 2.1 fWAR last year. Bregman has a 4.1 fWAR. Signing Bregman would be a net 2.0 fWAR gain based on last year's statistics.
Soto's 8.1 fWAR is better than Marte's 0.6. Marte is equal to Martinez's 0.6 fWAR at DH.
If Cohen wants to spend his money for a long-term contract then Bregman is the correct choice.
Everybody wants a survey for everything you do, so my version of a survey:
Pete Alonso is 4 years, 3 months, and 9 days older than Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
As a Mets fan, knowing that the Mets have Juan Soto tied up for 15 years, Francisco Lindor through 2031 and Brandon Nimmo through 2030 (and Bobby Bonilla for another few years), would you rather have:
(a) Pete Alonso signed now for 5 years and $140M.
(b) A stopgap first baseman in 2025 and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. signed next year for 12 years and $350 to $500M.
(c) Mark Vientos moved permanently to first (and use 3rd base as the position to fill with either prospects or free agents/trades)
(d) Bank on Ryan Clifford being better than Lucas Duda.
Lucas Duda played 10 years in the majors and had back-to-back 3.0 fWAR seasons once they stopped trying to make him an outfielder. Clifford doesn't need to be better than Duda to be a worthwhile option at 1B at minimum wage.
Yeah, I mentioned the memory on Duda being worse than reality. He was very good but the Mets mishandled his position.
I gotta disagree with you on Duda. He had two decent years. In his 10 years of playing, he played the equivalent of 6 full years of games and averaged 1.3 WAR, with his two OK years pulling that average way up. Pete has had 3 of his 6 years with WAR greater than Duda's best. A team cannot win with Duda level production from the first baseman.
If you describe Duda's 2014-15 seasons as "decent," I'm scared to hear how you'd describe Alonso's 2023-24.
From a production standpoint, Alonso's 23-24 seasons were disappointing primarily in the batting average column. 34 home runs in his down year were 4 more than Duda ever hit in a season. In '23, Alonso hit 46 HRs with 118 RBI, 26 more RBI than Duda's best season. Alonso seems be being judged against his 53 homer season, Alonso's last two years have been quite productive when looking at most other players in the league.
I guess we'll need to agree to disagree on the Alonso's trajectory. I don't happen to believe his slope will continue downward.
If the Mets are inclined to dole out a 5 year contract then they should signed Bregman instead of Alonso. Bregman had 118 OPS+ last year to Alonso 122 OPS+ but Bregman would solidify the infield defense. Bregman had a fWAR 4.1 and 14.0 in the last 3 years. By comparison, had a Alonso 2.1 fWAR and 8.7. If Stearns wants to take on another contract then Bregman would be the better choice.
It is unfortunate that Boras represents both of them. Stearns can't play one against the other.
Oh no! We agree.
I also have a counter viewpoint on Bregman as well. Unless you are planning on switching him to first base quickly, the chance that he will age better than Pete is probably not great. Third base is a much harder on the body and breakdowns happen sooner. There are a few that last well into their thirties, but they are exceptions (B. Robinson comes to mind). It certainly appears that Nelson Arenado is on the decline. He could bounce back, but I would bet on Bregman following Arenado's trajectory rather than Robinson's. I think a 5 year deal to Bregman (who is a year older than Pete) would be unwise.
So, here's how two players have done in fWAR since 2021 up to 2024:
Player A: 3.5, 3.8, 2.8, 2.1
Player B: 2.1, 5.4, 4.5, 4.1
If you have to sign one of these and you pick Player A -- you're making a mistake. Player B is Bregman and the low 2021 output came in his only injury-shortened season of his MLB career. Just like Alonso, he's trending downwards. But he's starting from a much higher level and isn't falling as fast.
I love your line above "The beauty of this is that in a few years we'll see how it all works out" (paraphrased just a bit). There are a lot of comments that I make that I would love to be organized enough to see 5 or 8 years later.
Being a baseball fan is a great vocation!
I like Bregman over Alonso for the solid third base defense.
From a press release:
The New York Mets today announced that they have agreed to terms on one-year contracts with all six arbitration eligible players - RHP Paul Blackburn, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP David Peterson, outfielders Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor and catcher Luis Torrens.
They already agreed to a deal with SRF, so I think this means all of the arb-eligible guys have signed.
Reports that Siri's deal was for $2.4 million
WOW! That's a plain unvarnished statement about Jon Heyman. Thanks, I was completely unaware of that.
Whenever I have read anything his agent says, other than not wanting the pressure of a big city - which I believe was a mistake to say - it seems Sasaki would prefer NYC. He wants endorsements, recognition of being the best at his trade, the ace of his staff and the attention that goes with it, and a winning and supportive organization. That sounds like either the Mets or the Yankees. I know that the Yankees have Garrett Cole, but I have read that Japan has many Yankees fans. So, while Sasaki did give props to Hefner and no other pitching coach, if he has the guts to go after and want his own attention, he goes to NYC. Landing Soto gives the Mets a chance, but the Yankees pivoted nicely and filled out their team.
If the Mets honor their deal with Elian Pena, there's almost no money left for Sasaki. Maybe they can get creative with his deal but I'm unsure if it would be kosher to pay him $1 million from this year's IFA budget and then pay him $20 million next year from regular salary. Ohtani didn't get that kind of deal, so I'm guessing Sasaki won't, either.
It's stiff day. Former Mets Tyler Jay is now with the Mariners and Matt Festa is with the Cubs. Glad you won't be in Met uniforms in 2025
Its January 9th. We still need a first baseman, another really good starter, another outfielder, a DH and a couple of good relievers. Its about time we start filling those holes. Until I see the final roster I will be antsy about this.
The big question is does Alonso want a shot at a ring? If so he needs to sign with a real contender willing to make that happen and the teams left, other than the Mets, will muddle along and never get there. Don’t blame the players for getting as much as they can, but how much is enough? So back to what Mike said, they need a front line starter, another BP piece and a first baseman/third baseman so they are not the third best team in their division. And what makes everyone think Vientos would be a good first baseman since his experience at that position is nearly non existent?
The big question is does Cohen want a shot at the ring? Vientos had a 2.9 fWAR compared the Alonso 2.1 fWAR last year. Bregman has a 4.1 fWAR. Signing Bregman would be a net 2.0 fWAR gain based on last year's statistics.
Soto's 8.1 fWAR is better than Marte's 0.6. Marte is equal to Martinez's 0.6 fWAR at DH.
If Cohen wants to spend his money for a long-term contract then Bregman is the correct choice.