WAR…What Is It Good For?

Forget “run prevention”: WAR is an interesting stat to look at for the 2026 Mets

Run prevention seems to be the new drinking game term for Mets fans these days. A lot of emphasis has been put on the “upgrades” the team has made (by trading for Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr, who have show great defensive prowess in the past). By adding Freddy Peralta to the pitching rotation, Devin Williams to the bullpen, and leaning on new upcoming talent such as Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong (provided the latter makes it to the big club after this spring), it seems David Stearns is putting his money where his mouth is.

Yet, what I find more intriguing than the defense and pitching allowing fewer runs are who replaced those that left. Namely, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo.

Who is providing the actual… <deep foreboding voice> Wins Above Replacement?

WAR… What is it good for? In this fan’s humble opinion, it’s a stat that I’ve come to rely on to formulate support for an argument for or against a certain player. The actual physical definition, according to MLB, is: “WAR measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).”

For the purpose of this post, we will be using the Baseball Reference definition of WAR (technically, bWAR).

The concept seems relatively simple, right? For example, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays boast some of the highest lifetime WARs in baseball history. It makes a ton of sense, when you look at their overall value and contributions to the sport.

Though, this column was inspired by a conversation I had about Dante Bichette, current New York Met Bo Bichette’s father. Despite having a career .299 BA over 14 years, the elder Bichette had an overall career 5.7 WAR. Dante Bichette was a notorious defensive liability throughout his career, lending to his anti-all time great WAR.

Contrast that to his son, the younger Bichette had an 3.5 WAR just last season, and in seven years has an overall 21.0 WAR along with a BA slightly lower than his dad’s career average, of .294.

While Bo Bichette is going to be taking licks at third base (a position he’s never before played) in 2026, he has shown great defensive talent and seems to take his new role seriously with the Mets, showing his training at third this spring.

Now, let’s take a look at Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. As a fan with strong opinions, I favored McNeil. Not to take anything away from Alonso, but McNeil was one of those throw back ball players, almost from a different era. In eight seasons, McNeil had a 23.0 WAR. His highest WAR came in his first All-Star season in 2019 (5.2) and in his batting title season of 2022 (5.9). McNeil also had the distinction of playing multiple roles in the field.

Contrast that with Alonso, who in seven seasons with the Mets, had a 23.3 WAR. Alonso played in over 150 games per year, with the exception of the COVID-shortened season of 2020.

Despite having been with the Mets since 2018, McNeil played in fewer games than Alonso. Yet, they have fairly comparable WARs. Why is that? In a word: defense. McNeil was seen as valuable for his defense and playing multiple positions as opposed to Alonso, who hits lots of home runs.

Allowing Alonso to walk makes sense in the grand philosophy with team management, with respect to this new “run prevention” strategy we’ve been hearing so much about.

Yet, it makes things all the more curious when you factor in who is tapped to cover for Alonso at first base: Jorge Polanco. Polanco has never played a day at first base, and in 12 years, has a lower WAR than Alonso at 20.7. Polanco tends to hit for average which may account for his lack of defensive prowess impacting his overall value. Best case scenario is that Stearns and crew may be looking for Polanco’s overall defense to improve while playing first base.

Marcus Semien is a very interesting case, and from projections seems to be an interesting candidate to perhaps heat up due to a scenery change in New York. While that type of wishful thinking does not necessarily seem to work for the Mets (that dreaded “transition year”), Semien has finished three times in the top 3 of AL MVP voting, has two Gold Gloves, and is a three time All-Star. Based in defense alone, Semien is a distinct upgrade over McNeil (who was decent at second base, but he was viewed more as a utility player).

Semien has also accumulated a 49.2 WAR over 13 years. Comparable to McNeil, since 2019, Semien surpasses his WAR with 36.7 over McNeil’s 23.0. Semien has a chance to be a true difference maker in Queens in 2026.

Fan favorite Brandon Nimmo was the first one gone this offseason, having sent him to the Texas Rangers for Semien. The Mets seem to be banking on Luis Robert, Jr. to replace Nimmo’s production. (Carson Benge also seems to be a possibility, but I’m not banking on him making the team out of spring, at least not right now). Since 2020, Robert has a 15.8 WAR; somewhat of a downgrade from Nimmo’s 19.2 WAR since 2020. Yet, Robert does seem to have a slight edge over Nimmo on defense, adhering to that whole run prevention philosophy.

While two of the infielders (Bichette and Polanco) have never played at the position they’re slated to in 2026 (third base and first base, respectively), the Mets have made some serious upgrades to the team via the Wins-Above-Replacement statistic (with Polanco being more even to whom he is replacing). Combine that with the young and upcoming pitchers like Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, along with the addition of Freddy Peralta to the starting rotation, starters can go deeper into games and keep the opponents from scoring.

Ah yes, that whole “run prevention” thing again. While preventing runs it’s important, whom the Mets are replacing their players with is also important. After all, if you don’t score, you can’t win games no matter how many runs they prevent.