You get 5 stars just for "WAR...What is it good for". Made me chuckle thinking about that episode.
All the different metrics in the analysts toolkit accomplish different things, like a pile of different sized screwdrivers. You need to apply the right metric for the question at hand. To me WAR is as blunt a tool in the arsenal as we get. As such it carries all the vagaries attached to the calculation, and the fact fWAR is different than bWAR indicates its not some mathematical certainty like say mean (average), but a construct filled with all sorts of subjectivity.
WAR works great for very big picture things where details dont matter too much. The Alonso v McNeil comp is fascinating, and to me really highlights how complicated the defense metrics are, of which I have small regard for. Pete for example is an elite scooper and make a huge target for people to throw at. He expands the dart board substantially, and it provides more time and less accuracy for players to get to him. There is not much given to that as far as I can tell, but when we see just how bad the throws to 1B have been, his skills should not be undervalued. He also has the footwork, body positioning, stretching, and tagging of an elite defender. He's a decent fielder. By my accounting thats 90%+ of the job he does at a high level. His arm stinks. His range to the right is preposterous. He causes issues on the plays, but its not like they are all super common, yet it means he gets highly degraded. I think once we see just how profoundly bad Bichette and Polanco (BiPo) will be in the field, there will be a craving to have Pete's defense back.
War what is it good for - absolutely nothing. Say it again go the lyrics. I have come a long way to understanding WAR and accepting it as a valuable statistic. But it is not the be all and end all of analysis. Hoping the new cast of Mets go to war better than last year’s group, but Chris I agree with you that there will come a time during the season where they will regret not having Pete Alonso at first base scooping up all those errant throws, crashing 35+ home runs and 120 RBI. Given that they did not come up with an experienced first baseman to help with run prevention, this is really the only change where I see them suffering. And if they got Polanco to be DH then they overpaid.
Chris, I wanted to write everything you write about Alonso, but you beat me to it and wrote them better than I would have anyway.
I liked Alonso, but felt he wasn’t used correctly. I could live with a shorter deal, but obviously Alonso wouldn’t. To me he is a #5 or #6 hitter. He doesn’t move the line enough to be further up where his chasing and lack of overall hitting ruins rallies. He is better off as a two outs bopper to clear the bases with his 3% outcome.
As a defender, he was undersold, but, we have nerds grading these players with their opinions of the players’ performance. And so, defensive metrics are for those of us that don’t see a player often and need some kind of “qualified” opinion. For those of us that see a player everyday, defensive metrics are hilarious sometimes. Take Juan Soto: a Gold Glove finalist in 2024 but the worst right fielder statistically in 2025? Hysterical.
Thanks Gus. Im not in tears over Alonso, but i still have room on my team to keep special players long term. There is currency in that for me. I understand and certain agree that batting him 5th makes sense. The D metrics are a complete hot mess of gobbly-gook, no way around it. Hope all well in Texas these days amigo.
Ill take Alonso over McNeill. McNeill has been a slap hitter for a while now. He is 33 and it was time for him to go. I am a fan and enjoy all aspects of the game. Sometimes the analysis paralysis is too much. I am pleased with the new roster. The old regime for six years delivered nothing. Ok, they got to the NL championship series, but no WS and no rings. New players, a great farm system, an ace in Peralta, an exciting rookie in Benge and McClean, could be the next big time NL pitching stud. There is a lot of hope. Hey Hey, My My, the New York Mets will never die. There is more to the picture, than meets the eye, Hey Hey My My. McNeill and Nimmo put to the pasture. Alonso, a good year or two. Diaz, he wants a ring. It would be funny and Karma if the Dodgers fell apart and the Mets won. That is the joy of the game that we all love. War, Pi R Squared, it means nothing. Its what can you do for me today. I am excited about this team and its chances. If it aint working, change it.
You set the parameters for your article with bWAR.
3B - Bichette (3.5) replaces Baty (3.1) = +0.4
2B - Semien (3.3) replaces McNeil (2.0) = +1.3
1B - Polanco (2.6) replaces Alonso (3.4) = -0.8
LF - Soto (6.2) replaces Nimmo (2.9) = +3.3
C. - Alvarez (1.9) replaces Torrens (1.4) = +0.5
CF - Robert (1.4) replaces Taylor (1.0) = +0.4
RF - Taylor (1.0) replaces Soto (6.2) = -5.2
DH - Baty (3.1) replaces Marte (1.0) = +2.1
Total gain on offense = +2.0 .
It is a much better team defensively even with unexperienced veterans at 3B and 1B. If one struggles then Baty can take over either position. It is a improvement even though it was an uncompaventable be build the offensive roster.
Here’s a thought on Alonso. Every year he made a public statement before the season about how he wanted to improve his defense to be the best 1B in the league. In his last few years, aside from being the best at “scooping balls”, he was ranked near the bottom of the league in everything else - range, throwing, DRS, etc. He cost Senga a Cy Young caliber season because he couldn’t make a simple throw to the pitcher covering at 1B (that was the most egregious example, but a quick YouTube search will show you endless clips of him doing it over and over again.
Here’s my point though - he didn’t really want to be the best defensive 1B in the league. He just didn’t want to be relegated to DH because it would deflate his potential earnings in Arbitration and as a FA. How do I know this? Because the Mets happen to have the greatest defensive 1B to have ever played the game sitting in the broadcast booth and Alonso has never sought him out. Keith Hernandez has forgotten more about being a Gold Glove 1B than Alonso will ever know - and it’s a shame he never got to share it with him.
And for those who will say “well Keith could’ve reached out”, unfortunately it just doesn’t work that way. The Mets employ coaches and instructors, and in baseball it would be seen as an insult if Keith went directly to a player to offer advice. However, players are free to go seek advice from anyone they want…and Pete never chose to do so.
"Because the Mets happen to have the greatest defensive 1B to have ever played the game sitting in the broadcast booth and Alonso has never sought him out."
Fascinating point that I've yet to hear anyone else comment about. Heck, I've no intention of being a MLB 1Bman, yet I would be very interested in speaking to Mex about fielding the 1B position
However, Dan, I'm not sure it's fair to blame The Polar Bear for Senga's mishap and further demonstration of his fragility
Dan, this may be one of the truest statements ever written. If a player wants to really improve an aspect of his game, he will seek out help from mentors and veterans or anyone else associated with the team. He could have put 200% effort in the last few offseasons to improve his defense and also to get in better physical condition. Vlad Jr slimmed down quite a bit. If Alonso made this effort, the Mets may have resigned him. Maybe thats what Stearns was thinking. Lack of effort to improve. Just wants to hit home runs. The Orioles have one of the top first base prospects, Samuel Bassalo who has a very good arm. Alonso hasnt figured it out yet, but he could very soon be a DH.
WAR and other publicly available baseball statistics, for as flawed as they can be, have made both the public and the media/pundit machinery surrounding the sport monumentally more educated about the underlying nuances of player performance than we ever were. This has led to fantastic discussion and analysis as well as misuse and misunderstanding of the application of the statistics themselves. And I almost certainly have been guilty of that at times if I'm being honest.
But I think it's important to note that, at least according to folks that have way more insight into how teams operate than I/we do, the teams rarely leverage most of these public statistics for decision-making anyway (at least the "smart" ones).
They mostly have their own methods for evaluating players that are, if not totally in line with public statistics, at least resemble the general idea. Many teams favor certain attributes for their players more than others, though, which is why they have a "type" (think Jett Williams and the Brewers).
All that is to say that stats like WAR seem to be more for those of us on the outside than the teams, and I think even if they have their shortcomings they really do at least attempt to set a baseline from which we can all have discussions like these, and that is valuable in and of itself in my opinion.
You get 5 stars just for "WAR...What is it good for". Made me chuckle thinking about that episode.
All the different metrics in the analysts toolkit accomplish different things, like a pile of different sized screwdrivers. You need to apply the right metric for the question at hand. To me WAR is as blunt a tool in the arsenal as we get. As such it carries all the vagaries attached to the calculation, and the fact fWAR is different than bWAR indicates its not some mathematical certainty like say mean (average), but a construct filled with all sorts of subjectivity.
WAR works great for very big picture things where details dont matter too much. The Alonso v McNeil comp is fascinating, and to me really highlights how complicated the defense metrics are, of which I have small regard for. Pete for example is an elite scooper and make a huge target for people to throw at. He expands the dart board substantially, and it provides more time and less accuracy for players to get to him. There is not much given to that as far as I can tell, but when we see just how bad the throws to 1B have been, his skills should not be undervalued. He also has the footwork, body positioning, stretching, and tagging of an elite defender. He's a decent fielder. By my accounting thats 90%+ of the job he does at a high level. His arm stinks. His range to the right is preposterous. He causes issues on the plays, but its not like they are all super common, yet it means he gets highly degraded. I think once we see just how profoundly bad Bichette and Polanco (BiPo) will be in the field, there will be a craving to have Pete's defense back.
War what is it good for - absolutely nothing. Say it again go the lyrics. I have come a long way to understanding WAR and accepting it as a valuable statistic. But it is not the be all and end all of analysis. Hoping the new cast of Mets go to war better than last year’s group, but Chris I agree with you that there will come a time during the season where they will regret not having Pete Alonso at first base scooping up all those errant throws, crashing 35+ home runs and 120 RBI. Given that they did not come up with an experienced first baseman to help with run prevention, this is really the only change where I see them suffering. And if they got Polanco to be DH then they overpaid.
And Robert is an overpay,but it’s Cohen.
Chris, I wanted to write everything you write about Alonso, but you beat me to it and wrote them better than I would have anyway.
I liked Alonso, but felt he wasn’t used correctly. I could live with a shorter deal, but obviously Alonso wouldn’t. To me he is a #5 or #6 hitter. He doesn’t move the line enough to be further up where his chasing and lack of overall hitting ruins rallies. He is better off as a two outs bopper to clear the bases with his 3% outcome.
As a defender, he was undersold, but, we have nerds grading these players with their opinions of the players’ performance. And so, defensive metrics are for those of us that don’t see a player often and need some kind of “qualified” opinion. For those of us that see a player everyday, defensive metrics are hilarious sometimes. Take Juan Soto: a Gold Glove finalist in 2024 but the worst right fielder statistically in 2025? Hysterical.
Thanks Gus. Im not in tears over Alonso, but i still have room on my team to keep special players long term. There is currency in that for me. I understand and certain agree that batting him 5th makes sense. The D metrics are a complete hot mess of gobbly-gook, no way around it. Hope all well in Texas these days amigo.
Taking it one day at a time…. ;-)
Ill take Alonso over McNeill. McNeill has been a slap hitter for a while now. He is 33 and it was time for him to go. I am a fan and enjoy all aspects of the game. Sometimes the analysis paralysis is too much. I am pleased with the new roster. The old regime for six years delivered nothing. Ok, they got to the NL championship series, but no WS and no rings. New players, a great farm system, an ace in Peralta, an exciting rookie in Benge and McClean, could be the next big time NL pitching stud. There is a lot of hope. Hey Hey, My My, the New York Mets will never die. There is more to the picture, than meets the eye, Hey Hey My My. McNeill and Nimmo put to the pasture. Alonso, a good year or two. Diaz, he wants a ring. It would be funny and Karma if the Dodgers fell apart and the Mets won. That is the joy of the game that we all love. War, Pi R Squared, it means nothing. Its what can you do for me today. I am excited about this team and its chances. If it aint working, change it.
Absolutely nothing.
You set the parameters for your article with bWAR.
3B - Bichette (3.5) replaces Baty (3.1) = +0.4
2B - Semien (3.3) replaces McNeil (2.0) = +1.3
1B - Polanco (2.6) replaces Alonso (3.4) = -0.8
LF - Soto (6.2) replaces Nimmo (2.9) = +3.3
C. - Alvarez (1.9) replaces Torrens (1.4) = +0.5
CF - Robert (1.4) replaces Taylor (1.0) = +0.4
RF - Taylor (1.0) replaces Soto (6.2) = -5.2
DH - Baty (3.1) replaces Marte (1.0) = +2.1
Total gain on offense = +2.0 .
It is a much better team defensively even with unexperienced veterans at 3B and 1B. If one struggles then Baty can take over either position. It is a improvement even though it was an uncompaventable be build the offensive roster.
Here’s a thought on Alonso. Every year he made a public statement before the season about how he wanted to improve his defense to be the best 1B in the league. In his last few years, aside from being the best at “scooping balls”, he was ranked near the bottom of the league in everything else - range, throwing, DRS, etc. He cost Senga a Cy Young caliber season because he couldn’t make a simple throw to the pitcher covering at 1B (that was the most egregious example, but a quick YouTube search will show you endless clips of him doing it over and over again.
Here’s my point though - he didn’t really want to be the best defensive 1B in the league. He just didn’t want to be relegated to DH because it would deflate his potential earnings in Arbitration and as a FA. How do I know this? Because the Mets happen to have the greatest defensive 1B to have ever played the game sitting in the broadcast booth and Alonso has never sought him out. Keith Hernandez has forgotten more about being a Gold Glove 1B than Alonso will ever know - and it’s a shame he never got to share it with him.
And for those who will say “well Keith could’ve reached out”, unfortunately it just doesn’t work that way. The Mets employ coaches and instructors, and in baseball it would be seen as an insult if Keith went directly to a player to offer advice. However, players are free to go seek advice from anyone they want…and Pete never chose to do so.
"Because the Mets happen to have the greatest defensive 1B to have ever played the game sitting in the broadcast booth and Alonso has never sought him out."
Fascinating point that I've yet to hear anyone else comment about. Heck, I've no intention of being a MLB 1Bman, yet I would be very interested in speaking to Mex about fielding the 1B position
However, Dan, I'm not sure it's fair to blame The Polar Bear for Senga's mishap and further demonstration of his fragility
Everyone who saw that throw knows it was just another bad Pete throw…this one happened to hurt a fragile pitcher
Dan, this may be one of the truest statements ever written. If a player wants to really improve an aspect of his game, he will seek out help from mentors and veterans or anyone else associated with the team. He could have put 200% effort in the last few offseasons to improve his defense and also to get in better physical condition. Vlad Jr slimmed down quite a bit. If Alonso made this effort, the Mets may have resigned him. Maybe thats what Stearns was thinking. Lack of effort to improve. Just wants to hit home runs. The Orioles have one of the top first base prospects, Samuel Bassalo who has a very good arm. Alonso hasnt figured it out yet, but he could very soon be a DH.
WAR and other publicly available baseball statistics, for as flawed as they can be, have made both the public and the media/pundit machinery surrounding the sport monumentally more educated about the underlying nuances of player performance than we ever were. This has led to fantastic discussion and analysis as well as misuse and misunderstanding of the application of the statistics themselves. And I almost certainly have been guilty of that at times if I'm being honest.
But I think it's important to note that, at least according to folks that have way more insight into how teams operate than I/we do, the teams rarely leverage most of these public statistics for decision-making anyway (at least the "smart" ones).
They mostly have their own methods for evaluating players that are, if not totally in line with public statistics, at least resemble the general idea. Many teams favor certain attributes for their players more than others, though, which is why they have a "type" (think Jett Williams and the Brewers).
All that is to say that stats like WAR seem to be more for those of us on the outside than the teams, and I think even if they have their shortcomings they really do at least attempt to set a baseline from which we can all have discussions like these, and that is valuable in and of itself in my opinion.