Wednesday catch-all thread (6/10/26)
Please use this thread all week to discuss any Mets-specific topic you wish.
Among the many hitting woes for the Mets is their production with runners in scoring position. Their 566 PA and 184 runs scored with RISP both rank 28th in the majors and their .678 OPS in this split ranks 25th.
Marcus Semien’s .778 OPS with RISP is the fourth-best mark on the club and tops among those not on the IL. But there are a couple of issues with his production here. First is that .778 OPS comes with a .391 BABIP, which means there’s been some incredible luck with hits finding holes.
The second issue, somewhat related to the first, is the number of hits in these situations that don’t drive in a run. Semien has 18 hits with RISP, 3 SF and 14 RBIs. We know he has one hit with RISP that drove in two runs, which means he has eight hits in these situations that did not drive in a run.
Now, a hit is always preferable to an out. But let’s look at the WPA for his last two hits with runners in scoring position.
6/7 - .001 WPA (hit did not drive in a run)
5/30 - .078 WPA (hit drove in a run)
There are other factors in play in WPA, so it doesn’t mean that every hit with RISP that doesn’t score someone is worth .001 WPA. Instead, it’s just an example. Same goes for the .078 WPA. You can find hits with a greater WPA score, as well as one that aren’t quite as high as this one. These are simply that last two hits with RISP that Semien has.
Forgive me if I don’t get excited about a hit with RISP that delivers a .001 WPA.
Meanwhile, Brett Baty has 10 hits with RISP, 2 SF and 18 RBIs. That’s fewer hits, fewer sac flies and four more RBIs. But you don’t hear the announcers talk about how productive Baty is in these situations.
It’s easy to see Semien’s .333 AVG with RISP and get excited and also to view Baty’s .263 AVG and not get inspired. But once you look at things past that initial glance, Baty seems more productive. It’s just another reason why you need to look past AVG when evaluating how good a player is in reality.
I love that Semien is referred to as Stinky. Reminds me of Bader when we called him Pinky but I believe we were teasing him about his footwear. Semien, who has a lifetime career average .752 OPS, had an OPS pf .699 in 2024 and a .669 OPS in 2025. Yes, the deal sending Nimmo packing was clearly a salary dump but how could they expect good hitting out of Semien with his numbers the last few years. The run prevention that Stinky does is lacking hits and therefore preventing the Mets from scoring runs. I hope he improves so he can be moved at the deadline.
Mets are still just five out behind the last wildcard team, albeit with several teams ahead of them. Since there is little chance that they would make an impact even if they got into the playoffs, there is a host of players that could be on the block. Now that Peralta wants 8 years and $218 million dollars he would be the first one I would trade. If they hang on to him and play the qualifying offer game, he will still go and the Mets will get a pick so low that getting a good player would be a stretch. Better to dump him at the deadline!!
Brayan:
I understand your frustration with often having to extensively discuss one topic, but I found your interchange about Semien to be quite illuminating
But besides, sometimes that's the price you have to pay for the habit of clear exposition and, as I have personally experienced, your ability to answer questions that no one has been able to answer, and answer correctly
I will say that, even though I don't dispute your assessment of Semien's offensive liability, I'm not sure about the consensus about his defensive ineptitude. My problem is that I don't have an adequate understanding of modern defensive statistics, and I haven't had the time for the necessary study