Let the Marlins throw in Edwards their second baseman. I would also rather part with Vientos as at least Baty can play the field. Let's throw in Senga too and they can rehab him.
Aah, the old pu pu platter. Just keep throwing guys in and the other side has to agree. Why would the Marlins look at that as appealing? If we think Vientos and Senga stink - why would they have trade value?
Xavier Edwards has a 2.5 fWAR in 62 games. He's not a throw-in. He's someone you have to pay substantially to get. He's in his age-26 season Next season will be his first year of arbitration. So he's cheap, not someone the penny-pinching Marlins would look to dump.
I love that Semien is referred to as Stinky. Reminds me of Bader when we called him Pinky but I believe we were teasing him about his footwear. Semien, who has a lifetime career average .752 OPS, had an OPS pf .699 in 2024 and a .669 OPS in 2025. Yes, the deal sending Nimmo packing was clearly a salary dump but how could they expect good hitting out of Semien with his numbers the last few years. The run prevention that Stinky does is lacking hits and therefore preventing the Mets from scoring runs. I hope he improves so he can be moved at the deadline.
Mets are still just five out behind the last wildcard team, albeit with several teams ahead of them. Since there is little chance that they would make an impact even if they got into the playoffs, there is a host of players that could be on the block. Now that Peralta wants 8 years and $218 million dollars he would be the first one I would trade. If they hang on to him and play the qualifying offer game, he will still go and the Mets will get a pick so low that getting a good player would be a stretch. Better to dump him at the deadline!!
I agree that AVG alone doesn't tell the story. But by the same logic, should we be cherry-picking RBI totals or a couple of WPA examples either? Looking at Nimmo and McNeil this year, their offensive value comes in different forms, and depending on which statistic we emphasize, we can make either player look better or worse. Sometimes it feels like we decide whether we like a player first and then choose the stats that support that conclusion. What metrics do you think give the fairest overall picture?
What do you want an offense to do? Score lots of runs. Which stat is best for correlation with run scoring?
OPS>SLG>OBP>AVG
You've got to get 'em on and you've got to get 'em in. The easiest way to get them in is with hits with runners in scoring position. It's true that RBIs are only a partial stat. But it seems relevant to me how many players a guy drives in when he comes up in the best RBI chances.
But if somehow you feel that's cherry picking - let's look at how Semien does overall in RBI chances. Among players with at least 50 runners on base, the top RBI% is Ezeqquiel Duran's 22.79% mark. Where does Semien rate? He's 263rd with a 11.11 RBIi%. He's just not that good.
The illusion is thinking that any stat is perfect because there is no such thing. We have stats that describe certain things better than others. If you want to know who the fastest guy is, you don't look at how many HR he hits. You identify the stats that do the best job (even if not perfect) in describing what you're after.
People keep repeating Semien's AVG with RISP like that's a great way to show he's a clutch hitter or the guy you want up in that spot. He's been incredibly lucky with his BABIP in the small sample of 62 PA with RISP. What happens when the hits stop falling in? At the end of the year, do you expect Semien to have a .391 BABIP when his sample size is closer to 175?
When the bloops and bleeders that don't drive in runs dry up - Semien's AVG falls from its current lofty number. And then what's left? Semien is tied for the second-most PA with RISP and is sixth in RBIs. No matter how you slice it - that's not a great performance in the stat with the best chances to drive in runs.
Brian, before I respond, let me make sure I understand your position correctly.
A. You believe Semien's batting average with runners in scoring position is not very meaningful because the sample is still relatively small and the .391 BABIP is unlikely to persist.?
B. You believe RBI totals by themselves are an incomplete measure because they depend heavily on opportunities?
C. Despite that limitation, you view RBI% and performance in RBI opportunities as useful because they measure how often a hitter converts the chances he is given?
D. Therefore, when Semien ranks only middle-of-the-pack or worse in RBI conversion despite receiving a large number of opportunities, you view that as evidence that he has not been especially productive in those situations?
Are those the points you're making, or am I missing something?
If I have summarized your position correctly, then my view is somewhat different because I am not really trying to determine whether Semien is an elite run producer.
I see a veteran on a team that I have viewed as being in a mini-rebuild. I think he is professional, works hard, is generally well-liked in the dugout, and gives an honest effort.
I also think he may become more focused when men are on base, is still capable of punishing mistakes and mediocre pitching, and is willing to take a sacrifice fly or accept a productive out rather than always swinging for his own statistics.
I also evaluate him in the context of the roster. If acquiring Semien meant moving on from a declining Nimmo contract and from McNeil, whose style of play often frustrates me, I can live with what Semien brings.
For now, I am not especially concerned with whether a particular RBI metric likes or dislikes him. I will revisit that discussion if he reaches the point where he can no longer handle sub-90 mph fastballs from the weaker pitchers the Mets face. Until then, Semien is not high on my list of concerns.
My bigger concerns are whether Alvarez matures into a more complete player, whether Baty can become a significantly better hitter, whether Vientos develops greater intensity and focus in his plate approach, whether Bichette learns to take pitches instead of trying to hit a home run every at-bat, and whether Soto continues to set the kind of example that younger players should follow.
Those questions might have a much larger impact on the Mets' future than whether Semien's RBI percentage ranks 50th or 250th.
I want the Mets to be as good as they can be. Right now Semien is either the first or second-biggest problem on the club, depending on how you view Bichette's production compared to his age. Semien has been just as awful as expected. Bichette has been just as bad - perhaps a tad worse - but is far from what we expected.
You seem to think that one or two metrics don't like Semien and wish to wave that away. That's certainly your prerogative. The problem is that it's not one or two metrics that don't like him - it's the vast majority. His overall offensive and defensive numbers view him as a poor player - which is why FG views him as a replacement-level player and BR views him as worse than that.
You're allowed to be any kind of fan you want. If you think that Semien's calm demeanor and veteran presence make him an asset - rock on. Just don't expect others to agree with you.
This is the last comment I'm going to make on Semien to you in this post.
My opinion before the season started was that he was not a good player. At all. In the preseason projection piece, my forecast was for Semien to have a .655 OPS, which was 60 points below what the projections were calling for.
Semien currently has a .631 OPS - which is even worse than I thought he'd be.
Now, some (not necessarily you) are trying to say that because he has a high AVG with runners in scoring position, that Semien is better than his overall season numbers indicate. To that, I say his AVG in this split is due to an unsustainable BABIP. Furthermore, these extra hits he currently has have not resulted in extra runs scored. Which makes them essentially worthless.
Semien does not have some exceptional ability in the RISP split. He has had great luck with the hits falling in and those extra hits - bloops and bleeders - are not delivering runs.
I want all players to have their pros and cons fairly rated and have an objective view on if they're good players. Semien's overall numbers on both offense and defense are not good. His AVG with RISP is good. But it's deceiving because it's not resulting in extra runs being scored in this important sub-category.
At the end of the day, 18 hits and 3 SF should result in more than 14 RBIs with RISP. Not every hit with RISP is going to drive in a run. I don't know what the percentage is/should be but if you asked me to guess, I'd say 80-90% of them should.
Let's that instead of 8 hits with RISP that didn't drive in a run, Semien had 4. That would mean he'd have 14 hits (instead of 18) and 4 did not drive in a run, or 71.4% of his hits drove in runs.
With 4 fewer hits with RISP, his AVG would be .259 and his BABIP would be .304 in the split. The league-average numbers in this split are a .249 AVG and a .294 BABIP. Semien would be better than average in both categories. But no one would think he was very good in this split and using it to say he's better than his overall numbers suggest.
You mentioned above Semien “being willing to take a sacrifice fly”. In reading your comments here regularly you make a lot of similar type of statements. I completely understand that you like to see teams keep the line moving, small ball, etc. but I think you are overstating the simplicity of that. Saying that someone is willing to take a sacrifice fly seems to imply that they can hit a fly ball to sac fly depth any time they want to but rather choose to try to get a hit. I believe that almost every major leaguer tries to hit the ball hard every at bat. That may result in a home run, a sacrifice fly or any other outcome. I don’t think players choose to change their swing to sacrifice fly mode. There are some limited instances where players may change their approach, like trying to hit towards the right side with a man on second, but the game has evolved into something different than it was years ago. That is because the metrics have proven that more runs are scored the way teams approach it now. Players can’t guarantee a sac fly or a productive out if they just choose to do that.
I understand your frustration with often having to extensively discuss one topic, but I found your interchange about Semien to be quite illuminating
But besides, sometimes that's the price you have to pay for the habit of clear exposition and, as I have personally experienced, your ability to answer questions that no one has been able to answer, and answer correctly
I will say that, even though I don't dispute your assessment of Semien's offensive liability, I'm not sure about the consensus about his defensive ineptitude. My problem is that I don't have an adequate understanding of modern defensive statistics, and I haven't had the time for the necessary study
Generally speaking, it takes longer for defensive stats to "stabilize" than it does offensive ones. Ideally, you'd look for two years' worth of defensive stats to roughly equal one year of offensive stats in terms of reliability
But one thing we know for sure and that's defensive numbers for players peak earlier than offensive ones. Look at Juan Lagares. He was a great defensive player in 2013 & 2014 when he was 24-25 years old. Yet in the final three years of his career, he had a combined (-1) FRV. Defense is a young man's game.
Right now, Semien has a (-2) FRV. That accurately rates what he's done this year defensively. It's just that it may not be indicative of his true-talent level. We'll see where he's at at the end of the year.
Yet we know he wasn't as good defensively in 2025 as he was in 2024. And he's worse in 2026 than he was in 2025. But that's pretty much what we'd expect from a guy who's 35. Defense is a young man's game.
Alvarez,Baty,Tong for Alcántara?
Let the Marlins throw in Edwards their second baseman. I would also rather part with Vientos as at least Baty can play the field. Let's throw in Senga too and they can rehab him.
Aah, the old pu pu platter. Just keep throwing guys in and the other side has to agree. Why would the Marlins look at that as appealing? If we think Vientos and Senga stink - why would they have trade value?
Xavier Edwards has a 2.5 fWAR in 62 games. He's not a throw-in. He's someone you have to pay substantially to get. He's in his age-26 season Next season will be his first year of arbitration. So he's cheap, not someone the penny-pinching Marlins would look to dump.
I love that Semien is referred to as Stinky. Reminds me of Bader when we called him Pinky but I believe we were teasing him about his footwear. Semien, who has a lifetime career average .752 OPS, had an OPS pf .699 in 2024 and a .669 OPS in 2025. Yes, the deal sending Nimmo packing was clearly a salary dump but how could they expect good hitting out of Semien with his numbers the last few years. The run prevention that Stinky does is lacking hits and therefore preventing the Mets from scoring runs. I hope he improves so he can be moved at the deadline.
Mets are still just five out behind the last wildcard team, albeit with several teams ahead of them. Since there is little chance that they would make an impact even if they got into the playoffs, there is a host of players that could be on the block. Now that Peralta wants 8 years and $218 million dollars he would be the first one I would trade. If they hang on to him and play the qualifying offer game, he will still go and the Mets will get a pick so low that getting a good player would be a stretch. Better to dump him at the deadline!!
With Stinky having both a negative DRS (-5) and a negative FRV (-3) - how much is he contributing to run prevention?
That’s what is overlooked - that he has not played well at second. Give me McNeil back.
I agree that AVG alone doesn't tell the story. But by the same logic, should we be cherry-picking RBI totals or a couple of WPA examples either? Looking at Nimmo and McNeil this year, their offensive value comes in different forms, and depending on which statistic we emphasize, we can make either player look better or worse. Sometimes it feels like we decide whether we like a player first and then choose the stats that support that conclusion. What metrics do you think give the fairest overall picture?
What do you want an offense to do? Score lots of runs. Which stat is best for correlation with run scoring?
OPS>SLG>OBP>AVG
You've got to get 'em on and you've got to get 'em in. The easiest way to get them in is with hits with runners in scoring position. It's true that RBIs are only a partial stat. But it seems relevant to me how many players a guy drives in when he comes up in the best RBI chances.
But if somehow you feel that's cherry picking - let's look at how Semien does overall in RBI chances. Among players with at least 50 runners on base, the top RBI% is Ezeqquiel Duran's 22.79% mark. Where does Semien rate? He's 263rd with a 11.11 RBIi%. He's just not that good.
The illusion is thinking that any stat is perfect because there is no such thing. We have stats that describe certain things better than others. If you want to know who the fastest guy is, you don't look at how many HR he hits. You identify the stats that do the best job (even if not perfect) in describing what you're after.
People keep repeating Semien's AVG with RISP like that's a great way to show he's a clutch hitter or the guy you want up in that spot. He's been incredibly lucky with his BABIP in the small sample of 62 PA with RISP. What happens when the hits stop falling in? At the end of the year, do you expect Semien to have a .391 BABIP when his sample size is closer to 175?
When the bloops and bleeders that don't drive in runs dry up - Semien's AVG falls from its current lofty number. And then what's left? Semien is tied for the second-most PA with RISP and is sixth in RBIs. No matter how you slice it - that's not a great performance in the stat with the best chances to drive in runs.
Brian, before I respond, let me make sure I understand your position correctly.
A. You believe Semien's batting average with runners in scoring position is not very meaningful because the sample is still relatively small and the .391 BABIP is unlikely to persist.?
B. You believe RBI totals by themselves are an incomplete measure because they depend heavily on opportunities?
C. Despite that limitation, you view RBI% and performance in RBI opportunities as useful because they measure how often a hitter converts the chances he is given?
D. Therefore, when Semien ranks only middle-of-the-pack or worse in RBI conversion despite receiving a large number of opportunities, you view that as evidence that he has not been especially productive in those situations?
Are those the points you're making, or am I missing something?
If I have summarized your position correctly, then my view is somewhat different because I am not really trying to determine whether Semien is an elite run producer.
I see a veteran on a team that I have viewed as being in a mini-rebuild. I think he is professional, works hard, is generally well-liked in the dugout, and gives an honest effort.
I also think he may become more focused when men are on base, is still capable of punishing mistakes and mediocre pitching, and is willing to take a sacrifice fly or accept a productive out rather than always swinging for his own statistics.
I also evaluate him in the context of the roster. If acquiring Semien meant moving on from a declining Nimmo contract and from McNeil, whose style of play often frustrates me, I can live with what Semien brings.
For now, I am not especially concerned with whether a particular RBI metric likes or dislikes him. I will revisit that discussion if he reaches the point where he can no longer handle sub-90 mph fastballs from the weaker pitchers the Mets face. Until then, Semien is not high on my list of concerns.
My bigger concerns are whether Alvarez matures into a more complete player, whether Baty can become a significantly better hitter, whether Vientos develops greater intensity and focus in his plate approach, whether Bichette learns to take pitches instead of trying to hit a home run every at-bat, and whether Soto continues to set the kind of example that younger players should follow.
Those questions might have a much larger impact on the Mets' future than whether Semien's RBI percentage ranks 50th or 250th.
I want the Mets to be as good as they can be. Right now Semien is either the first or second-biggest problem on the club, depending on how you view Bichette's production compared to his age. Semien has been just as awful as expected. Bichette has been just as bad - perhaps a tad worse - but is far from what we expected.
You seem to think that one or two metrics don't like Semien and wish to wave that away. That's certainly your prerogative. The problem is that it's not one or two metrics that don't like him - it's the vast majority. His overall offensive and defensive numbers view him as a poor player - which is why FG views him as a replacement-level player and BR views him as worse than that.
You're allowed to be any kind of fan you want. If you think that Semien's calm demeanor and veteran presence make him an asset - rock on. Just don't expect others to agree with you.
This is the last comment I'm going to make on Semien to you in this post.
My opinion before the season started was that he was not a good player. At all. In the preseason projection piece, my forecast was for Semien to have a .655 OPS, which was 60 points below what the projections were calling for.
Semien currently has a .631 OPS - which is even worse than I thought he'd be.
Now, some (not necessarily you) are trying to say that because he has a high AVG with runners in scoring position, that Semien is better than his overall season numbers indicate. To that, I say his AVG in this split is due to an unsustainable BABIP. Furthermore, these extra hits he currently has have not resulted in extra runs scored. Which makes them essentially worthless.
Semien does not have some exceptional ability in the RISP split. He has had great luck with the hits falling in and those extra hits - bloops and bleeders - are not delivering runs.
I want all players to have their pros and cons fairly rated and have an objective view on if they're good players. Semien's overall numbers on both offense and defense are not good. His AVG with RISP is good. But it's deceiving because it's not resulting in extra runs being scored in this important sub-category.
At the end of the day, 18 hits and 3 SF should result in more than 14 RBIs with RISP. Not every hit with RISP is going to drive in a run. I don't know what the percentage is/should be but if you asked me to guess, I'd say 80-90% of them should.
Let's that instead of 8 hits with RISP that didn't drive in a run, Semien had 4. That would mean he'd have 14 hits (instead of 18) and 4 did not drive in a run, or 71.4% of his hits drove in runs.
With 4 fewer hits with RISP, his AVG would be .259 and his BABIP would be .304 in the split. The league-average numbers in this split are a .249 AVG and a .294 BABIP. Semien would be better than average in both categories. But no one would think he was very good in this split and using it to say he's better than his overall numbers suggest.
You mentioned above Semien “being willing to take a sacrifice fly”. In reading your comments here regularly you make a lot of similar type of statements. I completely understand that you like to see teams keep the line moving, small ball, etc. but I think you are overstating the simplicity of that. Saying that someone is willing to take a sacrifice fly seems to imply that they can hit a fly ball to sac fly depth any time they want to but rather choose to try to get a hit. I believe that almost every major leaguer tries to hit the ball hard every at bat. That may result in a home run, a sacrifice fly or any other outcome. I don’t think players choose to change their swing to sacrifice fly mode. There are some limited instances where players may change their approach, like trying to hit towards the right side with a man on second, but the game has evolved into something different than it was years ago. That is because the metrics have proven that more runs are scored the way teams approach it now. Players can’t guarantee a sac fly or a productive out if they just choose to do that.
Semien sucks. He will lead us nowhere except to the cellarc
Factoid - the Mets in 1986 had 10 players who had over 200 at bats with an OPS+ over 100. The 2026 Mets with players with over 100 at bats has three.
Brayan:
I understand your frustration with often having to extensively discuss one topic, but I found your interchange about Semien to be quite illuminating
But besides, sometimes that's the price you have to pay for the habit of clear exposition and, as I have personally experienced, your ability to answer questions that no one has been able to answer, and answer correctly
I will say that, even though I don't dispute your assessment of Semien's offensive liability, I'm not sure about the consensus about his defensive ineptitude. My problem is that I don't have an adequate understanding of modern defensive statistics, and I haven't had the time for the necessary study
Thanks for the kind words.
Generally speaking, it takes longer for defensive stats to "stabilize" than it does offensive ones. Ideally, you'd look for two years' worth of defensive stats to roughly equal one year of offensive stats in terms of reliability
But one thing we know for sure and that's defensive numbers for players peak earlier than offensive ones. Look at Juan Lagares. He was a great defensive player in 2013 & 2014 when he was 24-25 years old. Yet in the final three years of his career, he had a combined (-1) FRV. Defense is a young man's game.
Right now, Semien has a (-2) FRV. That accurately rates what he's done this year defensively. It's just that it may not be indicative of his true-talent level. We'll see where he's at at the end of the year.
Yet we know he wasn't as good defensively in 2025 as he was in 2024. And he's worse in 2026 than he was in 2025. But that's pretty much what we'd expect from a guy who's 35. Defense is a young man's game.