Whither Pete Alonso?
Yes, yes… Another round of ink and pixels are about to be spilled, wondering where Mets’ slugger Pete Alonso will call home in 2025.
Happy New Year.
When the Mets signed Juan Soto to his epic, record-shattering pact just before Christmas, there was much rejoicing. Now the Mets are finally working up to their potential! Now the Mets are playing with the big kids! Now they’ll turn New York back into a Mets town – as if that really means anything, other than chest-puffing. While Soto won’t be doing it alone on the offense, what with him joining luminaries like Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, erstwhile batting champion Jeff McNeil and young up-and-comers like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez, everyone generally agrees that he will need some help in the slugging department. Soto, with his superlative plate discipline, will likely lead the National League in walks, but unless Alonso returns or some out-of-nowhere mega deal – like bringing in a Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., perhaps --happens, he will also lead the league in intentional walks. Let’s face it: if he was getting on base this much as a Yankee last year, with American League MVP Aaron Judge hitting behind him, imagine how many times he’d be stranded on first or second without that kind of lineup protection. So yes, the Mets need Alonso back from a production standpoint and yeah, it would make a great swath of the fanbase happy – including your intrepid columnist. We want to see him chase David Wright and Darryl Strawberry for club offensive records, we want to see him burnish reputation as one of the good guys, but on and off the field. We want him in that clubhouse.
From Alonso’s camp, I’m sure he and superagent Scott Boras would like to see some resolution to this situation before pitchers and catchers report in a month. Boras has the reputation for squeezing every last drop of interest – as well as every last nickel of salary – from potential suitors for his stable of clients, but the clock is ticking on their end, as well. Pete Alonso is not J.D. Martinez. He’s not an aging slugger in danger of withering on the vine while potential teammates gear up for the upcoming festivities. He’s just entering his age 30 season, but the harsher critics among us say his skill set doesn’t age well. It’s a pity that the focus constantly seems to be on what Alonso doesn’t do well – his fielding, his propensity for high strikeout rates and chasing pitches off the plate, his 2024 season of being “un-clutch” (but just ask Devin Williams about that lie). Add in the fact that the market for Alonso’s services has been dwindling since early December, with first base/DH types signing with clubs that needed them already: Pete waits by the phone. The sticking point in all these negotiations seems to be the length of the deal rather than the average annual value, or AAV in the hip, hot acronym. In other words, it’s not about the money, per se, but how long he will make it.
Yeah, so about that…
There was a rumor floated yesterday that the Alonso/Boras camp came back to the Mets, willing to take a three-year, opt-out laden deal – one that was far short of the purported six-to-ten-year deal they had been seeking. If this is true and the money isn’t a huge factor – remember, we’re talking about Steve Cohen, here – I fail to see how the Mets can pass this up. While Boras isn’t usually one to panic, if this is true, it seems like a real “Hail Mary” pass on their part. If Cohen and President of Baseball Operations David Stearns are serious at all about bring Alonso back, the time to do it is now, within the next week-and-a-half. Any further dillydallying only opens the door for more public posturing and potential ill will. I don’t think either side wants that. The fanboy in me says let’s bring Pete home, with the idea of him smashing most existing offensive club records and possibly becoming the fourth ballplayer in history to spend his entire career as a Met – the other three being Wright, Ed Kranepool and Ron Hodges.
I think that’d be good for all concerned.
Here's how FanGraphs calculated Alonso's worth the past three seasons:
2022 - $30.4 million
2023 - $22.8 million
2024 - $16.7 million
It's not that they undervalue what Alonso brings to the table. It's just that he hasn't brought it the past two years. If his name was, say, Paul Goldschmidt and he was available as a free agent - there's no way you would want to pay him for what he did three years ago.
Speaking of Goldschmidt, here's how FG valued him in the same period:
2022 - $54.6 million
2023 - $27 million
2024 - $8.9 million
Of course, Goldschmidt is considerably older than Alonso. But the takeaway here is that the FG calculations certainly recognized how good Goldschmidt was in 2022. And how he was not good in 2024.
And it's no different with Alonso.
Great piece Charlie. I’ve been a proponent of re-signing Alonso even earlier during the season in 2024. He is much-maligned for not being a super fielder, but what I remember most is him digging all those balls out of the dirt and saving his infielders errors and avoiding giving up runs. He had a down year last year statistically from what we are used to, but was still a huge bat in this lineup. It’s easy to point at his decline, but it seems that if they can work with him to stop going after the outside pitch, that is 5 inches off the plate, they could drastically improve his offensive output. It’s bad enough they still don’t have a number 1 starter, but if they can’t make this three year counter offer with opt outs work, then they never will sign him. They need to sign him first and then make a trade for Castillo from the Mariners. They can’t get Castillo first because the M’s will then jump and sign Alonso for their much needed offense. Let’s get this contract with Alonso done!!!