Great piece Charlie. I’ve been a proponent of re-signing Alonso even earlier during the season in 2024. He is much-maligned for not being a super fielder, but what I remember most is him digging all those balls out of the dirt and saving his infielders errors and avoiding giving up runs. He had a down year last year statistically from what we are used to, but was still a huge bat in this lineup. It’s easy to point at his decline, but it seems that if they can work with him to stop going after the outside pitch, that is 5 inches off the plate, they could drastically improve his offensive output. It’s bad enough they still don’t have a number 1 starter, but if they can’t make this three year counter offer with opt outs work, then they never will sign him. They need to sign him first and then make a trade for Castillo from the Mariners. They can’t get Castillo first because the M’s will then jump and sign Alonso for their much needed offense. Let’s get this contract with Alonso done!!!
Dear Pete: We appreciate all you've done while with our beloved Mets. Please accept our generous offer of 3 years at $81 million with an opt-out after years 2 and 3. And we won't even ask you to defer any money! Sincerely, David
Dear David, I cherish all the memories of New York and all the things that I have been able to do as a New York Met. With your $51M man in right field, it seems as if my contributions to the team and its advancement to just short of the World Series would be worth at least $32 on a short term deal. Let's talk when you can get 3/$96. I will consider less AAV on a longer term deal, say 4/$119 or 5/$140.
Warm regards and hope to see you in St. Lucie next month,
Dear Pete: I do appreciate all your exploits for our team. I have carefully considered your counter-proposal, after consulting with Brian Joura (who referred to your worth on Fangraphs, which was about $70 million for the past three years). Much as I would love to have you back on our team, please feel free to find another team that will pay you what you desire, and we would consider matching that team's offer.
While I appreciate the work you guys are doing to pigeon-hole my salary, I wonder what you thought about 2019 when I was giving you $37.8M worth of stats for my $0.555M salary.
In fact, I had Bill do a quick calculation which found that my 17.3 total WAR in 6 years is worth about $138M to you as I have been paid just about $50M for that output. I won't even talk about all the shirts you have sold in the team shop.
So, as I am already $90M in the hole, I don't see where closing that gap by bumping my AAV for the next three years from $27M to $32M should be that much of a hardship.
Again, thanks for listening - hope to see you soon!
As you and your agent know, players are not paid for their performances for the first few years of service.
But we will be happy to meet you halfway. Please accept our more-than-generous offer of $88.5 million for three years!
And please review videos of your approach at the plate, with a special emphasis on low-and-away pitches, this off season—while you wear one of the shirts we sent you from the team shop.
I get it that I didn't have the best season last year. I was not happy with my increased strikeout numbers. I have been working hard this off season to come to spring training ready to be a better hitter than ever! (although there are only 4 other players in the game that hit more homers than I have over the last two years.)
I was looking at the news last week when Steve announced that they will retire David's #5 this summer. That caused me to double down on my desire to come back to New York and possibly have #20 retired someday. Hopefully by the all-star break, I will have the all time Mets home run record, and with Juan hitting in front of me, in three years, I should have the RBI title. Finally, if you could give me a 170 year contract, I'd challenge Jose for the Stolen Base title among all Mets as well! You get the point - I'd like to have my number up on the wall forever at Citi Field!
My goals for 2025 and beyond are to be a more complete hitter - I'll get the homers, but I would like to approach 50 doubles and try to get the Batting Average back to the .260-.270 range. I am already working hard and will do so all year, especially since I won't have all those reporters asking me every day about my contract status.
With Francisco, Juan, Brandon, and me at the top of that order every day, we'll be scoring runs in bunches. And with Mark, Jeff, Francisco, and Starling behind me, we have the best 1-8 offense in the majors.
Let's meet at $94M and get ready for baseball! LFGM!
Here's how FanGraphs calculated Alonso's worth the past three seasons:
2022 - $30.4 million
2023 - $22.8 million
2024 - $16.7 million
It's not that they undervalue what Alonso brings to the table. It's just that he hasn't brought it the past two years. If his name was, say, Paul Goldschmidt and he was available as a free agent - there's no way you would want to pay him for what he did three years ago.
Speaking of Goldschmidt, here's how FG valued him in the same period:
2022 - $54.6 million
2023 - $27 million
2024 - $8.9 million
Of course, Goldschmidt is considerably older than Alonso. But the takeaway here is that the FG calculations certainly recognized how good Goldschmidt was in 2022. And how he was not good in 2024.
Earlier this month, it was reported that the Mets offered 3/$90M with opt-outs and that was rejected. Apparently, Boras has countered. There’s an inherent assumption that it’s a good-faith counter and that the Mets should just pay it. But when is Boras reasonable? For all we know, he’s asked for 3/$120M with 2 opt-outs. He has held out his clients into and past spring training in the past and probably believes he has a lot of leverage right now. I hope that the Mets sign Alonso for all the reasons Charlie mentions in this article but I also don’t want to see Cohen, Stearns, and the franchise pillaged by Boras. IMHO, 3/$90 is already too rich, given that far superior 1Bs, like Freeman and Harper don’t make that much. But for the sake of closing down this insufferable negotiation, I’d be fine with it.
I do have confidence in Stearns and Cohen. Obviously they know they need at least another bat in the lineup. If Alonso doesn’t pan out, and in my view it is not looking promising, they will get Bregman done and/or work out a trade.
Alonso is not an innocent bystander in this. He signed up for this when he brought Boras on to be his agent. He made his pact with the devil at that point.
If the Mets could get protection for Soto like a RHB with a slash line of 322/516/837 then they would be in business. Oh wait, they have one that hits behind Soto. Never mind.
I like Pete. I'm not opposed of his signing a market value short-term contract with opt outs. For that matter, I'm not opposed to signing Bregman to a market value short-term contract with opt-outs either. Either one of them would help the Mets short-term and realize Cohen's goal of getting to a World Series. Bregman is my preferred choice. But I also think that the Mets are a playoff team without signing either one of them.
I guess the thing that bugs me at this point is the assertion that Alonso only hit 34 homers and had 88 RBI last year which indicates that he is on a steep decline. As Brian pointed out, Goldschmidt did have a monster year 3 years ago. He was 34 years old at the time. In fact Goldschmidt did have a slightly down year in his age 31 season with 'only' an .821 OPS. He came back strong for a few years before tailing off badly in 2023 and 2024.
If Pete were 33 years old, I would be more wary of a deal. I don't want to see a 7 year deal at this point. He just turned 30 a month ago. He has a lot of time to rake up some stats.
He wants Prince Fielder money. Fielders WAR was -.3 at age 30, 2.0 at 31 and - 1.6 at age 32. He was out of baseball after his age 32 season. Fielder weighed 275 where Alonso weighs 245. Sorry guys, nice story, but Id rather have a younger more athletic first baseman. Maybe they could lift Triston Casas from the Red Sox.
It conjures memories of Jeter's last contract negotiation. He wanted $125 million over 5. The Yankees replied, “We're not paying extra money for popularity. We're paying for performance.” Jeter signed for $51 million over 3 and put up .7 bWAR over those 3 years combined.
Pete is popular, but what's his performance over the next 3 years? He declined a $158 million deal 2 years ago. He won't get that now. If he doesn't take a 2-year deal, then better to try to sign Bregman and slide Vientos to 1B, if he's able.
It would be curious to see what the reaction would be if they signed Bregman to a deal that they wouldn't give Alonso. It's pretty clear to me that Bregman is a better all-around player. But the fans have witnessed Alonso hitting all of those homers and it's fair to wonder if they'd hold Bregman to a higher standard, being the guy to replace a popular player. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Bregman out-performs what Alonso has done yet the fans consider him to be a bust.
This is where baseball gets to be an interesting game. The definition of out-perform becomes fuzzy. I think you are correct in thinking that Bregman will be thought of as the replacement for Alonso and when Bregman cannot hit 30 homers with his home park not being Houston and their left field porch, the fans will not appreciate him.
I get the WAR thing, but Alonso's OPS, OPS+, HR, and RBI were all better than Bregman's in both 2023 and 2024.
I will give you the better defense of Bregman, but Pete is not killing them at first. Would it be nice to have him play Hernandez level defense? Sure, but he's not like Marv Throneberry over there.
If you think Pete is going downhill with age, Bregman is leading that trip.
The other problem I have with Bregman is he will cost a draft pick and some pool money.
My thinking at this point is that the position they are trying to fill, triple crown stats are the important ones. Driving in runs wins games. I get it with the defense up the middle, but I am trying to build the best line-up that I can to score as many runs as possible. Obviously batting average is not involved here (I'd bring John Olerud or Keith Hernandez back in a heartbeat), but if I look at the Mets top 8 with Alonso as one of them, that line up is the one of the best they ever threw out there.
Love the back and forth, and the thread with Steve and Bill was awesome. But, I fall in between the yea’s and the nay’s. I don’t think Alonso is as bad defensively as projected, but his ceiling is “average”. He is great throwing underhand, but throwing overhand is an adventure. He can scoop like a Hoover, but grounders are sometimes misplayed.
But, let’s be real about his strength: offense. In the last two years, Pete has been 36th on FanGraphs oWAR - that’s offense only. For similar plate appearances, he is under Nimmo and over Arozerena. If he isn’t even outperforming Brandon Nimmo offensively, why does everyone feel he should get $30+MM a year? And to think, that Nimmo’s defense is much better and he is still only at $21MM a year. Soto may be getting $51MM or $61MM as his valuation is derived after adding in the extras, but he was third, behind two MVP’s.
The Boras offer for “only the Mets so far” (what a guy!) is 3 years at $31.1MM per year with opt outs but also with deferrals. If the Mets truly offered $30 a year - which I don’t believe - then this should be done in two days. I do agree though that I’m more worried about the starting pitching than I am the lineup. Give him the $31.1M but with deferrals make it worth no more than $27MM.
And Charlie, Conner Gillespie hit a clutch three run HR in the ninth inning once. However, like Alonso, that’s all he did that year.
He's not worth $ 30 million. $ 22 million may be more accurate. As I gave said. Its now January 12th and we have a bunch of needs to fill. Id rather save Alonsos money for Vlad.
Hi Charlie . .a little different topic, but just curious - how do you define 'career' for the three guys that played their entire career's with the Mets (Wright, Kranepool, Hodges)? There are obviously other guys ranging from 1 game to 5+ years . .just wondered what your criteria is for a career?
Hi Charlie . . so I did some of that interesting research on the career Mets. I had never really thought about it much. I guess I just assumed that with all the Yankees that never played anywhere else, it was more common. I did find one more guy that played more than 5 years that was a career Met - Pedro Feliciano, a nine-year vet. He actually signed contracts with a couple teams after leaving NY, but never played in another game.
There are a bunch of guys that had their only cup of coffee with the blue and orange - I count 145 of the 1252 Mets that never played with another MLB team, but many were one year (one game, even one at-bat) wonders. Kevin Morgan has at least a tie for the record with one MLB at-bat.
The “$30 million is overpaying” line doesn't sound convincing in the current context. After a surprise playoff appearance and the Juan Soto contract, this is the time to go all in. They didn't sign Burnes, and if they don't sign Alonso, then we probably end up with Vogelbach or something on 1B because there is nobody else out there. There is no way this team competes with the Phillies and Braves without another big hitter and even if Pete is not as big as we hoped, there is nobody else out there who comes close.
Giving Alonso $30 million is bad business and Cohen didn't become a billionaire by making bad business decisions. You can't make decisions on emotion. It may be heartless to let Alonso walk but Stearns has to be the adult in the room and make the unpopular decisions.
I definitely have some emotions for Alonso. Watching him in October and feeling like I wanted him back for six years was emotional and I can't expect Cohen and Stearns to match my emotions. I don't know business, but its not obvious to me that $30 million is so bad in the current market when there isn't much else to be accomplished with that money.
Now in January when the Mets still don't have a first basemen and Alonso is finally willing to come down on the years, even if its 3/$100m, I can't see a better path to becoming a contender with the available options. Signing Jack Flaherty and trading for Luis Arraez might be nice. I think it would be fun to see for a year what the Mets offense can do with Arraez in the lineup. But that direction relies on many more things to go right for the Mets like whether San Diego can make a good deal and hoping that Flaherty is ok with a contract shorter than four years.
Is refusing a slight overpay in favor of punting and hoping that 2026 brings better options really a good business decision?
In no way, shape or form are the 2025 Mets punting on the season if they don't re-sign Alonso.
My opinion is that the team they have assembled right now is a playoff contender. It's fine to want more than that but to pretend that they have no hope without an Alonso or another expensive player added is misguided.
Maybe. After reading today's article I'm looking at those top 11 hitters getting 24.4 bWAR. 7.1 bWAR left the team, which is recovered by adding Juan Soto. However, that 24.4 bWAR was only good enough with the miracles performed by the pitching staff in September. I am not comfortable moving forward with a 24 bWAR lineup and this pitching staff. The Braves got away with a low bWAR offense because they had two 5 WAR pitchers, something the Mets clearly are not interested in pursuing.
If they don't sign Alonso I cannot imagine what the plan is to fill that spot in the lineup. Bregman certainly isn't taking three years. So then what else is there to do but sign someone like Vogelbach to keep 1B warm until Clifford comes up later in the year. Is it really a good business decision to hope that Clifford at age 22 can replace 120 OPS+ instead of joining Prentice Redman and Fernando Martinez who slugged around .450 in Binghamton before moving on to accomplish an extraordinary amount of nothing in the majors.
Mets pitchers in September had a 3.21 ERA, which was 7th in the majors. That's good but hardly rises to the level of "miracles." Meanwhile, the hitters were tied for 9th with 119 runs scored. And they did this with a .272 BABIP, which was the 26th-lowest mark in the majors. Just imagine how productive the offense would have been with just average luck in this category. And then add Soto.
First base is the easiest position on the diamond to fill and you keep talking about how the choice is Alonso or Vogelbach. It's hard to take that seriously.
And for sure, no minor leaguer should be considered a sure thing. Clifford could be a bum. But not all long-term answers need to be found immediately. And I'd much rather lose a year in filling a position on the cheap like first base than be stuck paying $30 million a year to a guy who last year provided just over half of that value.
Great piece Charlie. I’ve been a proponent of re-signing Alonso even earlier during the season in 2024. He is much-maligned for not being a super fielder, but what I remember most is him digging all those balls out of the dirt and saving his infielders errors and avoiding giving up runs. He had a down year last year statistically from what we are used to, but was still a huge bat in this lineup. It’s easy to point at his decline, but it seems that if they can work with him to stop going after the outside pitch, that is 5 inches off the plate, they could drastically improve his offensive output. It’s bad enough they still don’t have a number 1 starter, but if they can’t make this three year counter offer with opt outs work, then they never will sign him. They need to sign him first and then make a trade for Castillo from the Mariners. They can’t get Castillo first because the M’s will then jump and sign Alonso for their much needed offense. Let’s get this contract with Alonso done!!!
Dear Pete: We appreciate all you've done while with our beloved Mets. Please accept our generous offer of 3 years at $81 million with an opt-out after years 2 and 3. And we won't even ask you to defer any money! Sincerely, David
Dear David, I cherish all the memories of New York and all the things that I have been able to do as a New York Met. With your $51M man in right field, it seems as if my contributions to the team and its advancement to just short of the World Series would be worth at least $32 on a short term deal. Let's talk when you can get 3/$96. I will consider less AAV on a longer term deal, say 4/$119 or 5/$140.
Warm regards and hope to see you in St. Lucie next month,
Pete
Dear Pete: I do appreciate all your exploits for our team. I have carefully considered your counter-proposal, after consulting with Brian Joura (who referred to your worth on Fangraphs, which was about $70 million for the past three years). Much as I would love to have you back on our team, please feel free to find another team that will pay you what you desire, and we would consider matching that team's offer.
LFGM,
David
Hi again David, it's me, Pete again.
While I appreciate the work you guys are doing to pigeon-hole my salary, I wonder what you thought about 2019 when I was giving you $37.8M worth of stats for my $0.555M salary.
In fact, I had Bill do a quick calculation which found that my 17.3 total WAR in 6 years is worth about $138M to you as I have been paid just about $50M for that output. I won't even talk about all the shirts you have sold in the team shop.
So, as I am already $90M in the hole, I don't see where closing that gap by bumping my AAV for the next three years from $27M to $32M should be that much of a hardship.
Again, thanks for listening - hope to see you soon!
Pete
Hello Pete:
As you and your agent know, players are not paid for their performances for the first few years of service.
But we will be happy to meet you halfway. Please accept our more-than-generous offer of $88.5 million for three years!
And please review videos of your approach at the plate, with a special emphasis on low-and-away pitches, this off season—while you wear one of the shirts we sent you from the team shop.
All my best,
David
Hi David,
I get it that I didn't have the best season last year. I was not happy with my increased strikeout numbers. I have been working hard this off season to come to spring training ready to be a better hitter than ever! (although there are only 4 other players in the game that hit more homers than I have over the last two years.)
I was looking at the news last week when Steve announced that they will retire David's #5 this summer. That caused me to double down on my desire to come back to New York and possibly have #20 retired someday. Hopefully by the all-star break, I will have the all time Mets home run record, and with Juan hitting in front of me, in three years, I should have the RBI title. Finally, if you could give me a 170 year contract, I'd challenge Jose for the Stolen Base title among all Mets as well! You get the point - I'd like to have my number up on the wall forever at Citi Field!
My goals for 2025 and beyond are to be a more complete hitter - I'll get the homers, but I would like to approach 50 doubles and try to get the Batting Average back to the .260-.270 range. I am already working hard and will do so all year, especially since I won't have all those reporters asking me every day about my contract status.
With Francisco, Juan, Brandon, and me at the top of that order every day, we'll be scoring runs in bunches. And with Mark, Jeff, Francisco, and Starling behind me, we have the best 1-8 offense in the majors.
Let's meet at $94M and get ready for baseball! LFGM!
From my heart, I won't disappoint!
Pete
Here's how FanGraphs calculated Alonso's worth the past three seasons:
2022 - $30.4 million
2023 - $22.8 million
2024 - $16.7 million
It's not that they undervalue what Alonso brings to the table. It's just that he hasn't brought it the past two years. If his name was, say, Paul Goldschmidt and he was available as a free agent - there's no way you would want to pay him for what he did three years ago.
Speaking of Goldschmidt, here's how FG valued him in the same period:
2022 - $54.6 million
2023 - $27 million
2024 - $8.9 million
Of course, Goldschmidt is considerably older than Alonso. But the takeaway here is that the FG calculations certainly recognized how good Goldschmidt was in 2022. And how he was not good in 2024.
And it's no different with Alonso.
Earlier this month, it was reported that the Mets offered 3/$90M with opt-outs and that was rejected. Apparently, Boras has countered. There’s an inherent assumption that it’s a good-faith counter and that the Mets should just pay it. But when is Boras reasonable? For all we know, he’s asked for 3/$120M with 2 opt-outs. He has held out his clients into and past spring training in the past and probably believes he has a lot of leverage right now. I hope that the Mets sign Alonso for all the reasons Charlie mentions in this article but I also don’t want to see Cohen, Stearns, and the franchise pillaged by Boras. IMHO, 3/$90 is already too rich, given that far superior 1Bs, like Freeman and Harper don’t make that much. But for the sake of closing down this insufferable negotiation, I’d be fine with it.
I do have confidence in Stearns and Cohen. Obviously they know they need at least another bat in the lineup. If Alonso doesn’t pan out, and in my view it is not looking promising, they will get Bregman done and/or work out a trade.
Alonso is not an innocent bystander in this. He signed up for this when he brought Boras on to be his agent. He made his pact with the devil at that point.
If the Mets could get protection for Soto like a RHB with a slash line of 322/516/837 then they would be in business. Oh wait, they have one that hits behind Soto. Never mind.
I like Pete. I'm not opposed of his signing a market value short-term contract with opt outs. For that matter, I'm not opposed to signing Bregman to a market value short-term contract with opt-outs either. Either one of them would help the Mets short-term and realize Cohen's goal of getting to a World Series. Bregman is my preferred choice. But I also think that the Mets are a playoff team without signing either one of them.
I guess the thing that bugs me at this point is the assertion that Alonso only hit 34 homers and had 88 RBI last year which indicates that he is on a steep decline. As Brian pointed out, Goldschmidt did have a monster year 3 years ago. He was 34 years old at the time. In fact Goldschmidt did have a slightly down year in his age 31 season with 'only' an .821 OPS. He came back strong for a few years before tailing off badly in 2023 and 2024.
If Pete were 33 years old, I would be more wary of a deal. I don't want to see a 7 year deal at this point. He just turned 30 a month ago. He has a lot of time to rake up some stats.
He wants Prince Fielder money. Fielders WAR was -.3 at age 30, 2.0 at 31 and - 1.6 at age 32. He was out of baseball after his age 32 season. Fielder weighed 275 where Alonso weighs 245. Sorry guys, nice story, but Id rather have a younger more athletic first baseman. Maybe they could lift Triston Casas from the Red Sox.
It conjures memories of Jeter's last contract negotiation. He wanted $125 million over 5. The Yankees replied, “We're not paying extra money for popularity. We're paying for performance.” Jeter signed for $51 million over 3 and put up .7 bWAR over those 3 years combined.
Pete is popular, but what's his performance over the next 3 years? He declined a $158 million deal 2 years ago. He won't get that now. If he doesn't take a 2-year deal, then better to try to sign Bregman and slide Vientos to 1B, if he's able.
I agree with your first graph.
It would be curious to see what the reaction would be if they signed Bregman to a deal that they wouldn't give Alonso. It's pretty clear to me that Bregman is a better all-around player. But the fans have witnessed Alonso hitting all of those homers and it's fair to wonder if they'd hold Bregman to a higher standard, being the guy to replace a popular player. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Bregman out-performs what Alonso has done yet the fans consider him to be a bust.
And that wouldn't be good for anyone.
This is where baseball gets to be an interesting game. The definition of out-perform becomes fuzzy. I think you are correct in thinking that Bregman will be thought of as the replacement for Alonso and when Bregman cannot hit 30 homers with his home park not being Houston and their left field porch, the fans will not appreciate him.
I get the WAR thing, but Alonso's OPS, OPS+, HR, and RBI were all better than Bregman's in both 2023 and 2024.
I will give you the better defense of Bregman, but Pete is not killing them at first. Would it be nice to have him play Hernandez level defense? Sure, but he's not like Marv Throneberry over there.
If you think Pete is going downhill with age, Bregman is leading that trip.
The other problem I have with Bregman is he will cost a draft pick and some pool money.
Come join us in the 21st Century and look beyond Triple Crown stats.
My thinking at this point is that the position they are trying to fill, triple crown stats are the important ones. Driving in runs wins games. I get it with the defense up the middle, but I am trying to build the best line-up that I can to score as many runs as possible. Obviously batting average is not involved here (I'd bring John Olerud or Keith Hernandez back in a heartbeat), but if I look at the Mets top 8 with Alonso as one of them, that line up is the one of the best they ever threw out there.
Love the back and forth, and the thread with Steve and Bill was awesome. But, I fall in between the yea’s and the nay’s. I don’t think Alonso is as bad defensively as projected, but his ceiling is “average”. He is great throwing underhand, but throwing overhand is an adventure. He can scoop like a Hoover, but grounders are sometimes misplayed.
But, let’s be real about his strength: offense. In the last two years, Pete has been 36th on FanGraphs oWAR - that’s offense only. For similar plate appearances, he is under Nimmo and over Arozerena. If he isn’t even outperforming Brandon Nimmo offensively, why does everyone feel he should get $30+MM a year? And to think, that Nimmo’s defense is much better and he is still only at $21MM a year. Soto may be getting $51MM or $61MM as his valuation is derived after adding in the extras, but he was third, behind two MVP’s.
The Boras offer for “only the Mets so far” (what a guy!) is 3 years at $31.1MM per year with opt outs but also with deferrals. If the Mets truly offered $30 a year - which I don’t believe - then this should be done in two days. I do agree though that I’m more worried about the starting pitching than I am the lineup. Give him the $31.1M but with deferrals make it worth no more than $27MM.
And Charlie, Conner Gillespie hit a clutch three run HR in the ninth inning once. However, like Alonso, that’s all he did that year.
He's not worth $ 30 million. $ 22 million may be more accurate. As I gave said. Its now January 12th and we have a bunch of needs to fill. Id rather save Alonsos money for Vlad.
Hi Charlie . .a little different topic, but just curious - how do you define 'career' for the three guys that played their entire career's with the Mets (Wright, Kranepool, Hodges)? There are obviously other guys ranging from 1 game to 5+ years . .just wondered what your criteria is for a career?
Thanks . . .<ba>
5 years & up, was my thought process.
Thanks. Fodder for some interesting research!
Hi Charlie . . so I did some of that interesting research on the career Mets. I had never really thought about it much. I guess I just assumed that with all the Yankees that never played anywhere else, it was more common. I did find one more guy that played more than 5 years that was a career Met - Pedro Feliciano, a nine-year vet. He actually signed contracts with a couple teams after leaving NY, but never played in another game.
There are a bunch of guys that had their only cup of coffee with the blue and orange - I count 145 of the 1252 Mets that never played with another MLB team, but many were one year (one game, even one at-bat) wonders. Kevin Morgan has at least a tie for the record with one MLB at-bat.
Good stuff!
The “$30 million is overpaying” line doesn't sound convincing in the current context. After a surprise playoff appearance and the Juan Soto contract, this is the time to go all in. They didn't sign Burnes, and if they don't sign Alonso, then we probably end up with Vogelbach or something on 1B because there is nobody else out there. There is no way this team competes with the Phillies and Braves without another big hitter and even if Pete is not as big as we hoped, there is nobody else out there who comes close.
Giving Alonso $30 million is bad business and Cohen didn't become a billionaire by making bad business decisions. You can't make decisions on emotion. It may be heartless to let Alonso walk but Stearns has to be the adult in the room and make the unpopular decisions.
I definitely have some emotions for Alonso. Watching him in October and feeling like I wanted him back for six years was emotional and I can't expect Cohen and Stearns to match my emotions. I don't know business, but its not obvious to me that $30 million is so bad in the current market when there isn't much else to be accomplished with that money.
Now in January when the Mets still don't have a first basemen and Alonso is finally willing to come down on the years, even if its 3/$100m, I can't see a better path to becoming a contender with the available options. Signing Jack Flaherty and trading for Luis Arraez might be nice. I think it would be fun to see for a year what the Mets offense can do with Arraez in the lineup. But that direction relies on many more things to go right for the Mets like whether San Diego can make a good deal and hoping that Flaherty is ok with a contract shorter than four years.
Is refusing a slight overpay in favor of punting and hoping that 2026 brings better options really a good business decision?
In no way, shape or form are the 2025 Mets punting on the season if they don't re-sign Alonso.
My opinion is that the team they have assembled right now is a playoff contender. It's fine to want more than that but to pretend that they have no hope without an Alonso or another expensive player added is misguided.
Maybe. After reading today's article I'm looking at those top 11 hitters getting 24.4 bWAR. 7.1 bWAR left the team, which is recovered by adding Juan Soto. However, that 24.4 bWAR was only good enough with the miracles performed by the pitching staff in September. I am not comfortable moving forward with a 24 bWAR lineup and this pitching staff. The Braves got away with a low bWAR offense because they had two 5 WAR pitchers, something the Mets clearly are not interested in pursuing.
If they don't sign Alonso I cannot imagine what the plan is to fill that spot in the lineup. Bregman certainly isn't taking three years. So then what else is there to do but sign someone like Vogelbach to keep 1B warm until Clifford comes up later in the year. Is it really a good business decision to hope that Clifford at age 22 can replace 120 OPS+ instead of joining Prentice Redman and Fernando Martinez who slugged around .450 in Binghamton before moving on to accomplish an extraordinary amount of nothing in the majors.
Mets pitchers in September had a 3.21 ERA, which was 7th in the majors. That's good but hardly rises to the level of "miracles." Meanwhile, the hitters were tied for 9th with 119 runs scored. And they did this with a .272 BABIP, which was the 26th-lowest mark in the majors. Just imagine how productive the offense would have been with just average luck in this category. And then add Soto.
First base is the easiest position on the diamond to fill and you keep talking about how the choice is Alonso or Vogelbach. It's hard to take that seriously.
And for sure, no minor leaguer should be considered a sure thing. Clifford could be a bum. But not all long-term answers need to be found immediately. And I'd much rather lose a year in filling a position on the cheap like first base than be stuck paying $30 million a year to a guy who last year provided just over half of that value.
BriN makes some great points here, I’m just not completely sure if Alonso is that easily replaced. As I said in the article, I want ‘im back.