Who Else Ya Got?
Enough Talk About Tarik Skubal
I get it. You love Tarik Skubal. I love Tarik Skubal. While I can understand the logic of Detroit trading him while his stock is high before likely losing him to free agency next year, the Tigers just came out of a postseason run. They’re a good team. My bold prediction is that they’ll hold onto him for one last hoo-rah.
Enough with pie-in-the-sky thinking of the Pirates maybe being open to trading Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh is going to need a guaranteed draw every fifth day. He’ll get his pay day in a few years. That’s a given.
While the Mets should not be opposed to trades in improving the team in areas that were glaring red flags in 2025, there are a few arms on the free agent market worth considering for 2026 and beyond.
Easily, the most attractive starting pitching candidates on the FA market include Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez.
All three are over 30 now, not by much though; however, each provides a level of consistency in an area that lacked for Mets starters last season. That’s eating up innings.
While each were in their “walk year,” Cease was easily the least impressive in 2025, as he had an off year from his standard level performance. But Cease has still averaged 184 innings pitched throughout his career.
Framber Valdez might be my personal favorite arm available. Dude is a work horse and has the potential to eat innings. He even had two complete games to his credit in 2025. He also had an 8.8 SO/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Something else worth noting is that Valdez also does not give up many home runs.
The drawbacks of either of those two aforementioned pitchers is there would inevitably be an “adjustment period” coming to New York. If they’re going to get lengthy deals with years and dollars, the Mets cannot afford to have a pitcher with an “off year” during their very first year.
To that end, possibly one of the most intriguing candidates for the Mets to sign would be Ranger Suarez. He already knows a lot about the NL East, having pitched for the Phillies for eight seasons. It would be an incredible heel turn for the Mets to snatch him up via free agency, when Philadelphia may be in their philosophical change era (having been eliminated two years in a row during the NLDS and looking at sweeping changes). Suarez also has plenty of postseason experience. Something to chew on, really.
Sure, picking up arms via free agency is boring, especially when the Mets have a lot of prospect chips to play around with to make creative trades. However, Nolan McLean is projected to be a true ace of this rotation going forward. Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat may not be ready for the majors just yet, but they show incredible potential. And remember: Christian Scott is waiting in the wings after missing the 2025 season due to injury. Pitching fizzled out in 2025; but it should not be as much of a glaring issue in upcoming years.
Mets pitching has always been a core part of their history and development. They should get back to their roots and keep their arms.
Who do you like in the free agent starting pitching class this offseason?
Let me throw some facts at you and you decipher them:
Peterson was 28th in fWAR last year and he was by far the worst pitcher in MLB for six weeks. Cease was 23rd. Mets target Joe Ryan another “ace” was 29th, and Merrill Kelly was 30th.
Cease was the 8th best when combining ‘24 and ‘25.
Valdez was 11th last year and 12th when combining ‘24 and ‘25. During these two years, Suarez was 13th and Sonny Gray was 14th. Cole Regans was 17th for KC, and he missed last year with an injury after being in AA for Texas in 2023.
My point is perception doesn’t seem to match reality. We think Cease sucks, but he was the best of the lot over two years. We think the Mets should trade for Ryan, but Peterson was better. We think the Mets cannot rely on the youngsters but we see others did it successfully because they were ready.
Senga and Manaea can both put up these numbers and have in the past, but last year they were injured. Senga got hurt after starting out the best pitcher in MLB, but rushed back and then got all messed up. Manaea got hurt in spring training and couldn’t find his rhythm after looking quite plump when he came back.
It would be nice to add a quality arm, but if the breaks go against you, what can you do? The Mets obviously had just as good as what the other teams had.
It is always fun to think the Mets can just go out and trade for another team’s ace. They can, but the teams still in the expanded playoff hunt will not trade their ace - Skubel or Skenes, because it make no sense for them. Alcantara makes sense now like he did at the trade deadline. He will cost prospects and perhaps one of the Mets misfit infielders.
But make no mistake, the Mets will not win without a true ace, and they currently lack that on their current roster. Easy to say some of their current pitchers will rebound and become forces that they were not in 2025. Easy to think that it’s NYC that some of these relief pitchers can’t perform in, but that’s rarely the answer.
So, I opine that they are one ace away from moving forward, but also believe that if they don’t resign Alonso and Diaz, and figure out what to do with Vientos, Mauricio and Acuna, thereby making the second half of the lineup stronger, it really won’t matter.
Let the off-season begin!