Let me throw some facts at you and you decipher them:
Peterson was 28th in fWAR last year and he was by far the worst pitcher in MLB for six weeks. Cease was 23rd. Mets target Joe Ryan another “ace” was 29th, and Merrill Kelly was 30th.
Cease was the 8th best when combining ‘24 and ‘25.
Valdez was 11th last year and 12th when combining ‘24 and ‘25. During these two years, Suarez was 13th and Sonny Gray was 14th. Cole Regans was 17th for KC, and he missed last year with an injury after being in AA for Texas in 2023.
My point is perception doesn’t seem to match reality. We think Cease sucks, but he was the best of the lot over two years. We think the Mets should trade for Ryan, but Peterson was better. We think the Mets cannot rely on the youngsters but we see others did it successfully because they were ready.
Senga and Manaea can both put up these numbers and have in the past, but last year they were injured. Senga got hurt after starting out the best pitcher in MLB, but rushed back and then got all messed up. Manaea got hurt in spring training and couldn’t find his rhythm after looking quite plump when he came back.
It would be nice to add a quality arm, but if the breaks go against you, what can you do? The Mets obviously had just as good as what the other teams had.
Gus, thanks for those numbers — they really bring things into focus.
I don’t think the Mets need to chase anyone like Cease right now. They already have Holmes, Senga, Manaea, Sproat, McLean, and Peterson, plus Scott and Tong — eight legitimate options for the rotation. No one’s seems to being moved, nor can anyone see one yet. They can start Scott and Tong in Triple-A in April, keep everyone stretched out, and have real depth if anything goes wrong early. I see Sproat as definitely and unequivocally in the rotation by May 1.
We’re all incredibly frustrated about Manaea and the burden of $50 million still owed, but his free-agency winter came right after full participation in the Mets’ pitching lab — work that’s impossible to replicate on his own.
That said, the Mets still need to make a splash or two to show they’re all in for 2026.
That could mean bringing Díaz back — and remember, he hasn’t opted out yet. Don’t be surprised if they quietly rework his deal without him opting out at all.
Some fans might float Minter or someone else as a closer, but for this rotation? No way.
The Mets, their starting five — and the fans — will only be satisfied if it’s Díaz anchoring the ninth.
Agree that Skubal and Skenes are mostly just pre-hot-stove league wishful thinking. I like Suarez too as it puts some hurt on a rival. Petersen looked good/great at times but personally I don’t have confidence in him to be anything more than a 3-4 starter. He’s soft and simply hasn’t shown the tenacity needed to be a frontline starter for a contender. Ditto Megill, for what it’s worth, but that’s moot since we are liberated from his inconsistency for a year. Diaz is going to walk and get a large payday, more than what I think the Mets should pay. I think they should give Senga some consideration as the closer.
Lots of opinions and zero data to support any of this, unfortunately.
I expect that all of those pitchers are too expensive for the team but any of them would be nice if the team is ready to commit to a post-Senga future, which is probably pre-mature. Someone like Zac Gallen who could sign for less years is more realistic and almost as good. Or take the same money and sign one year contracts with Griffin Canning plus Aaron Civale and hope that one of them doesn't suck.
Just because the Mets have a long list of depth names does not mean they add up to the quality and needed IP to survive a whole season - and another month past that. All I see are a bunch of back end so-so’s and has beens that will not sum to ever being enough to be special. That list of pitchers is a guarantee that 26 will look just as bad, or worse, than 25.
I think we need to really pump the brakes on McLeans expectations. His minor league record does not point to #1 let alone ace. I think placing that on his shoulders is a mistake. Senga and Manaea cannot be counted on, and truthfully cannot be counted on to even provide 5 IP across a whole season - I fix the pen by moving Manaea out there and possibly Senga.
Skenes is going nowhere. Skubal will have about the same return whether he’s off loaded in the off season or at the ASB, so the Guardians have time to noodle it out. That leaves FA and trades for other pitchers. If the team can trade some combo of Tong/Sproat/Scott etc to get Alcantra, I do that all day long. The team is under max pressure to perform and go far in the post season. The present pitchers have made it perfectly clear, they cannot get it done. So it puts the team at a real cross roads: invest in pitching with both $ and prospects or basically try to sell pieces and reload with youth for the future. The team is not well aligned with performing youth and vets, offense and defense.
Cohen was embarrassed with the 25 season as he should be. I cant see him saying we’re gonna gamble on broken veterans that perform less well every day, hopefuls, and reclamation projects. No way this makes sense after I loading a kings ransom to get Soto at his peak. Were we really going to waste that talent and money?
I go after Valdez and trade for Alcantra, sign Pete, and make Manaea the 8th inning RP or convert to closer. The pitching is a real issue and an expensive one, and if you drop Alonso’s numbers just where they get made up will also cost a lot of $.
I think a trade for Alcantra would be alot more productive in a way that Skubal would not be. But if this was possible why wouldn't they have traded for him mid-season? Surely it would have been the difference between getting the wild card. Maybe in July there was still enough hope that Senga/Manaea would have a healthy return.
I have to agree with 1999. I believe Senga and Manaea can both rebound to their previous forms. Senga before thw hamstring pull and Manaea before his injury last year… don’t like him keeping those bone chips however.
But, having said that, I would like a leader for this rotation: a true Ace! I don’t want to elevate McLean to that pedestal yet but I believe Peterson, Holmes, the kids, Senga and Manaea all have #2/3 upside so calling them backend starters may be a bit harsh.
No to a trade for Skubal because he would be too costly in prospects for a one year rental. I would empty the minor league to get Paul Skenes but Pittsburgh wouldn't do it. The Pirates have control of him until 2030. Your free agent targets are good but I would target Suarez, Valdez and Cease in that order. They need a good front line pitcher. I like McLean but I'm not crowning him Ace with only six weeks in the majors. The Mets should draft pitchers as a priority because they are not regularly available for trade or free agency. Pitching wins divisions.
In time, all of these options will be revealed. A ton of the trade options will depend on what other teams will accept for their pitcher. The Mets will be on the phone right after the World Series. Although he is not a pitcher, the White Sox were absurd with what they were asking for with Luis Robert. I dont think the Tigers will trade Skubal this off season unless a team makes an absurdly good offer that they cant refuse. I would love to have him, but not at the cost it would cost to obtain him. If the Tigers have a bad year next year, he will get dealt at the trade deadline. On the fred agent side, I like Valdez and Suarez. I do not like Cease. Never liked him.
The bottom line is just especially with pitchers, you just never know. Look at 86. We trade a live young arm in Schiraldi and we get Bobby O. Did anyone ever expect him to go what, 18-6 in 86?
I just dont want anymore experiments with pitchers from the junk heap.
It is certainly going to be an interesting off season.
Its kind of ironic to see Max Scherzer start gane seven in the World Series. I am rooting for Toronto. I dont like the Dodgers.
It is always fun to think the Mets can just go out and trade for another team’s ace. They can, but the teams still in the expanded playoff hunt will not trade their ace - Skubel or Skenes, because it make no sense for them. Alcantara makes sense now like he did at the trade deadline. He will cost prospects and perhaps one of the Mets misfit infielders.
But make no mistake, the Mets will not win without a true ace, and they currently lack that on their current roster. Easy to say some of their current pitchers will rebound and become forces that they were not in 2025. Easy to think that it’s NYC that some of these relief pitchers can’t perform in, but that’s rarely the answer.
So, I opine that they are one ace away from moving forward, but also believe that if they don’t resign Alonso and Diaz, and figure out what to do with Vientos, Mauricio and Acuna, thereby making the second half of the lineup stronger, it really won’t matter.
There is no way that we can go into 2026 with the same scrap heap that we had this year. We need legit starters. How on earth will we compete with Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani? Dodgers played clutch baseball to win that game. They threw their whole rotation at Toronto and it worked. We need at least two new legit good starters, probably sign one and trade for one. And still may not be enough. Have to get past the Phillies and Braves will back next year.
Let me throw some facts at you and you decipher them:
Peterson was 28th in fWAR last year and he was by far the worst pitcher in MLB for six weeks. Cease was 23rd. Mets target Joe Ryan another “ace” was 29th, and Merrill Kelly was 30th.
Cease was the 8th best when combining ‘24 and ‘25.
Valdez was 11th last year and 12th when combining ‘24 and ‘25. During these two years, Suarez was 13th and Sonny Gray was 14th. Cole Regans was 17th for KC, and he missed last year with an injury after being in AA for Texas in 2023.
My point is perception doesn’t seem to match reality. We think Cease sucks, but he was the best of the lot over two years. We think the Mets should trade for Ryan, but Peterson was better. We think the Mets cannot rely on the youngsters but we see others did it successfully because they were ready.
Senga and Manaea can both put up these numbers and have in the past, but last year they were injured. Senga got hurt after starting out the best pitcher in MLB, but rushed back and then got all messed up. Manaea got hurt in spring training and couldn’t find his rhythm after looking quite plump when he came back.
It would be nice to add a quality arm, but if the breaks go against you, what can you do? The Mets obviously had just as good as what the other teams had.
Gus, thanks for those numbers — they really bring things into focus.
I don’t think the Mets need to chase anyone like Cease right now. They already have Holmes, Senga, Manaea, Sproat, McLean, and Peterson, plus Scott and Tong — eight legitimate options for the rotation. No one’s seems to being moved, nor can anyone see one yet. They can start Scott and Tong in Triple-A in April, keep everyone stretched out, and have real depth if anything goes wrong early. I see Sproat as definitely and unequivocally in the rotation by May 1.
We’re all incredibly frustrated about Manaea and the burden of $50 million still owed, but his free-agency winter came right after full participation in the Mets’ pitching lab — work that’s impossible to replicate on his own.
That said, the Mets still need to make a splash or two to show they’re all in for 2026.
That could mean bringing Díaz back — and remember, he hasn’t opted out yet. Don’t be surprised if they quietly rework his deal without him opting out at all.
Some fans might float Minter or someone else as a closer, but for this rotation? No way.
The Mets, their starting five — and the fans — will only be satisfied if it’s Díaz anchoring the ninth.
Agree that Skubal and Skenes are mostly just pre-hot-stove league wishful thinking. I like Suarez too as it puts some hurt on a rival. Petersen looked good/great at times but personally I don’t have confidence in him to be anything more than a 3-4 starter. He’s soft and simply hasn’t shown the tenacity needed to be a frontline starter for a contender. Ditto Megill, for what it’s worth, but that’s moot since we are liberated from his inconsistency for a year. Diaz is going to walk and get a large payday, more than what I think the Mets should pay. I think they should give Senga some consideration as the closer.
Lots of opinions and zero data to support any of this, unfortunately.
Look at what the Dodgers did with Sasaki. He may just be the next great closer.
I expect that all of those pitchers are too expensive for the team but any of them would be nice if the team is ready to commit to a post-Senga future, which is probably pre-mature. Someone like Zac Gallen who could sign for less years is more realistic and almost as good. Or take the same money and sign one year contracts with Griffin Canning plus Aaron Civale and hope that one of them doesn't suck.
Just because the Mets have a long list of depth names does not mean they add up to the quality and needed IP to survive a whole season - and another month past that. All I see are a bunch of back end so-so’s and has beens that will not sum to ever being enough to be special. That list of pitchers is a guarantee that 26 will look just as bad, or worse, than 25.
I think we need to really pump the brakes on McLeans expectations. His minor league record does not point to #1 let alone ace. I think placing that on his shoulders is a mistake. Senga and Manaea cannot be counted on, and truthfully cannot be counted on to even provide 5 IP across a whole season - I fix the pen by moving Manaea out there and possibly Senga.
Skenes is going nowhere. Skubal will have about the same return whether he’s off loaded in the off season or at the ASB, so the Guardians have time to noodle it out. That leaves FA and trades for other pitchers. If the team can trade some combo of Tong/Sproat/Scott etc to get Alcantra, I do that all day long. The team is under max pressure to perform and go far in the post season. The present pitchers have made it perfectly clear, they cannot get it done. So it puts the team at a real cross roads: invest in pitching with both $ and prospects or basically try to sell pieces and reload with youth for the future. The team is not well aligned with performing youth and vets, offense and defense.
Cohen was embarrassed with the 25 season as he should be. I cant see him saying we’re gonna gamble on broken veterans that perform less well every day, hopefuls, and reclamation projects. No way this makes sense after I loading a kings ransom to get Soto at his peak. Were we really going to waste that talent and money?
I go after Valdez and trade for Alcantra, sign Pete, and make Manaea the 8th inning RP or convert to closer. The pitching is a real issue and an expensive one, and if you drop Alonso’s numbers just where they get made up will also cost a lot of $.
I think a trade for Alcantra would be alot more productive in a way that Skubal would not be. But if this was possible why wouldn't they have traded for him mid-season? Surely it would have been the difference between getting the wild card. Maybe in July there was still enough hope that Senga/Manaea would have a healthy return.
I have to agree with 1999. I believe Senga and Manaea can both rebound to their previous forms. Senga before thw hamstring pull and Manaea before his injury last year… don’t like him keeping those bone chips however.
But, having said that, I would like a leader for this rotation: a true Ace! I don’t want to elevate McLean to that pedestal yet but I believe Peterson, Holmes, the kids, Senga and Manaea all have #2/3 upside so calling them backend starters may be a bit harsh.
No to a trade for Skubal because he would be too costly in prospects for a one year rental. I would empty the minor league to get Paul Skenes but Pittsburgh wouldn't do it. The Pirates have control of him until 2030. Your free agent targets are good but I would target Suarez, Valdez and Cease in that order. They need a good front line pitcher. I like McLean but I'm not crowning him Ace with only six weeks in the majors. The Mets should draft pitchers as a priority because they are not regularly available for trade or free agency. Pitching wins divisions.
In time, all of these options will be revealed. A ton of the trade options will depend on what other teams will accept for their pitcher. The Mets will be on the phone right after the World Series. Although he is not a pitcher, the White Sox were absurd with what they were asking for with Luis Robert. I dont think the Tigers will trade Skubal this off season unless a team makes an absurdly good offer that they cant refuse. I would love to have him, but not at the cost it would cost to obtain him. If the Tigers have a bad year next year, he will get dealt at the trade deadline. On the fred agent side, I like Valdez and Suarez. I do not like Cease. Never liked him.
The bottom line is just especially with pitchers, you just never know. Look at 86. We trade a live young arm in Schiraldi and we get Bobby O. Did anyone ever expect him to go what, 18-6 in 86?
I just dont want anymore experiments with pitchers from the junk heap.
It is certainly going to be an interesting off season.
Its kind of ironic to see Max Scherzer start gane seven in the World Series. I am rooting for Toronto. I dont like the Dodgers.
It is always fun to think the Mets can just go out and trade for another team’s ace. They can, but the teams still in the expanded playoff hunt will not trade their ace - Skubel or Skenes, because it make no sense for them. Alcantara makes sense now like he did at the trade deadline. He will cost prospects and perhaps one of the Mets misfit infielders.
But make no mistake, the Mets will not win without a true ace, and they currently lack that on their current roster. Easy to say some of their current pitchers will rebound and become forces that they were not in 2025. Easy to think that it’s NYC that some of these relief pitchers can’t perform in, but that’s rarely the answer.
So, I opine that they are one ace away from moving forward, but also believe that if they don’t resign Alonso and Diaz, and figure out what to do with Vientos, Mauricio and Acuna, thereby making the second half of the lineup stronger, it really won’t matter.
Let the off-season begin!
There is no way that we can go into 2026 with the same scrap heap that we had this year. We need legit starters. How on earth will we compete with Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani? Dodgers played clutch baseball to win that game. They threw their whole rotation at Toronto and it worked. We need at least two new legit good starters, probably sign one and trade for one. And still may not be enough. Have to get past the Phillies and Braves will back next year.