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Ryan J's avatar

If Stearns waits until ~ August 15th to call up Sproat or McLean he will maintain an extra year of control on both of those guys. The thinking is likely that he's playing the long game here. Our current pitchers can pitch twice more through the rotation before calling up these guys, but at that point are we hoping they'll bolster this team going into the playoffs when they're so green?

It's a business decision. We'll see those guys in ten days, we are solidly in a playoff position if we can play .500 ball for the rest of the season.

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Brian Joura's avatar

I'm not convinced that calling up one of the prospects is the right move.

Yet I am convinced that the team with the richest owner in sports shouldn't spend one second worrying about an extra year of control.

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Woody's avatar

500 ball for the rest of the season might not be enough and it sure isn’t a slam dunk with way these guys are playing. Injuries could be the final blow. Imagine if Diaz,Lindor,Peterson go down. Padres look good to go and the Reds just might be that suprze team tut appears every year.

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Mike Walczak's avatar

If the Mets arent careful, they can fall easily fall out of playoff contentention. San Diego is lurking righ behind us.

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Dawid Wechter's avatar

First off, fantastic work on this post! Brilliant choice, fascinating questions. Thank you

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Brian Joura's avatar

Thanks for the kind words!

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Dawid Wechter's avatar

Thoughts: a) These guys are overachievers and need to work with this (superb) pitching coach and the ramp up with this pitching coach takes time b) calling up starters who are first establishing themselves as "dominant" after August 15 has high risk low reward c) It is not like he has a October team to push his recent signee after <10 starts to long relief d) No more expanding the roster to piggyback pitchers

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Metsense's avatar

The are still in Plan A. They still have two more starters than they have used recently, Blackburn and Megill and then three prospects waiting in the wings. This Saturday they use Blackburn instead of Montas because he recently has a 2.45 ERA in Syracuse. Montas is the mop up man until he shows some results. If Blackburn is bad then DFA because he has a 7.71 ERA. Then if Megill is ready (unlikely) give him a start. If that fails and Montas doesn’t right himself turn to Sproat who is on a roll at Syracuse. Peterson, Senga, Manaea and Holmes consistently fails to give 5 -6 quality innings then that would be a problem. They shouldn't panic yet but also there isn't a Plan B although promoted a prospect of two is actually Plan B because Stearns didn't want to do that.

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Woody's avatar

It would be a shame if they missed the Pllayoffs this year. Need to reale there is a chance it happens

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Brian Joura's avatar

What gives me hope is that they followed up the 3-14 stretch by going 14-6. Now, I recognize that's not even .500 if you add them together. It's just that they were in the toilet and managed to climb out - and that's worth something.

The hope is that the current 1-6 doesn't turn into 3-14. And for that not to happen, they need more from their starters.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

There is a lot to unpack here. Thanks for the thoughtful analysis of the situation, which should stimulate a lot of comments given its importance.

I think the issue is deeper than return from IL or even 2025 as a season, even if we see the issues being manifested that way now. I think the problem originated in the past off season where Stearns made a wildly unrealistic projection for the starting rotation, not adequately planning for front line pitching in concurrence with planning for IL stints (of whatever length). Frankly put, the position Stearns has of "there are no innings limits" means there are no pitch limits despite there basically being game pitch limits. To my eyes it was inevitable that we would see Holmes run out of gas and Senga hot a wall and get injured after a lost season. The fact is the ramp up projections for IP were over estimated by a lot, leaving the rotation short of IP and prone to injury. My personal sense is that the IL stints may overlap with naturally declining stamina through the season and stressful pitching for those returning after long IL stints essentially trying to do too much to help a rotation suffering from fatigue.

I agree whole heartedly about not all pitches are created equal. It's surprising in this day that the metrics counters are not separating this kind of data (presumably in house they are). I find this issue equally frustrating with both starters and relievers. In the case of the latter, I believe it is a huge mistake to give someone 1 inning and after say 12 pitches, sit them for the next inning and burn another arm. I think the industry is in a complete mental block with regards to pitch and inning leverage/stress.

As for the IP in rehab starts, I think this is also not a one size fits all. My belief is that all the injury recovery and strength build-up comes off the diamond and the starts are really aimed at timing, pitch sequencing, getting used to seeing someone in the box, and facing the same batters repeatedly. Once that's in order, the pitcher should be ready to return to big league action.

Sadly, to me this was a predictable turn of events. I agree that appealing to pitchers in the minors is not likely, and in any case a mistake given the pitching loads they have already accumulated. there is zero need to bring someone up in desperation who is already at the end of work load, expose them to having to do good at the end of a season. I wouldn't do it regardless of contract status. The last thing we need is for Tong to come up, flame out, and risk injury. I think we basically have what we have for starters and sort of hope to catch more good days than bad. I have said for a long time, the starting staff was substantially short of what would be needed for September-November. That feeling has not abated.

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Brian Joura's avatar

Thanks Chris!

You've long been an advocate of Pitches Per Out (PPO) and while I'm not as bullish as you are on that - I do think it can provide some clarity if combined with the raw pitch count. If Pitcher A has thrown 90 pitches thru 6 innings but threw 19 in the fifth and 25 in the sixth - it's likely time to bring the hook. But if another pitcher threw 90 thru 6 but had 15 in the fifth and 7 in the sixth - maybe he deserves another frame.

As for rehab starts, I want to see starters throw at least 90 pitches and would be in favor of 100+, too. That they had Senga come back with just one rehab start and only 68 pitches was a mistake. He's rehabbing in the majors, possible Senga, too.

Cohen's "Hope is not a strategy" seems to have been thrown out the window when it came to these pitchers rehabbing. And if they had been more thoughtful with those rehabbing - perhaps it would have created the pathway for multiple starts that they claim to want to give to the top pitching prospects.

But the first step is admitting that there's a problem.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

I am in agreement that we need to examine data for different things at varying degrees of granularity. You example of when differential PPO shows improvement through the game (to me, the absolute classic at this was Wheeler) versus those whose PPO increases through the game (my guess is most pitchers). In any event 90 P and 6 IP simply doesn't not provide enough contextual information to make anything out of it.

Unfortunately, as is the case for most teams, leveraging hope as a strategy is very much part of the Mets ethos. That is not judgmental, just reality, because it's all about money. Stearns was betting on Holmes to be a 150 quality IP starter after never pitching more than 60 something. That's a lot of gambling, and he made decisions about the staff betting on Holmes to do just that. Same with Senga, same with Montas.

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Steven Shrager's avatar

Sometimes starters just don’t have it. But often starters, unlike relievers, are used to working through a rough start and gutting it out for several innings. Perhaps we need to start with some of those that Stearns obtained with the hopes that they would be turned around by the pitching coaches or perhaps catch lightning in a bottle with marginal pitchers like Mantos, Blackburn, Canning, and a host of no name relievers - the list goes on. Manaea is not in that category, but Holmes might be given that he is at the point where he had not thrown more innings in past year. and whether. We knew that Senga was fragile, already needing an extra day of rest to be more effective.

What is easy to see is that today’s pitchers are soft when compared with other generations of hurlers whether that be the starters or relievers. As pointed out, a relief pitcher throws 12 pitches and then does not go out for the next inning. A starter hits 75 pitches and our game chat discusses whether they will go out for another inning. I revert back to the history of pitching in the 60’s and 70’s (sorry to those who were not yet born and think this refers to the middle ages) when pitchers threw 250 plus innings with tons of complete games.

In 1975 there were 1,052 complete games, ten years later in 1985 it had fallen to 727, then down to 104 in 2015 and 50 in 2021. In 2024 there were 28 and this year it stands at somewhere between 12-28 depending on the info spit out by Google.

“They” claim that analytics have demonstrated a clear decline third time through the order and that the threshold of 100 pitches is where is all goes down the drain. The pitchers of my youth gutted it out and while many still relied on mostly fastballs thinking they could over match the hitters all night long, the most successful pitchers learned out to pitch and show something different as the game progressed. Also, the specialization of relief pitchers, specific match ups, risk of injuries and the focus on winning versus the long-standing statistics that got pitchers to the hall of fame, have forced teams to pull their pitchers sooner than they should be pulled.

So, while Stearns may have loaded up on starters, as did the Dodgers, while injuries to the pitchers have certainly hurt, so has the caliber of player he chosen. When the Dodgers got their injured pitchers back their names were Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Sasaki. The names the Mets got back were Manaea, Montas, Blackburn, and hopefully Megill. The difference is astonishing.

I don’t know enough to determine why Mets pitchers struggle off of rehab assignments but I can see that the caliber of pitchers they have is simply not that of a championship team.

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Texas Gus's avatar

One thing that we need to remember when asking why Montas came out for the fifth inning, the bullpen now doesn’t really have a long man. Also, as for rehabbing pitchers, the MLB/MLBPA agreement stipulates that a player can only stay in the minors 30 days to rehab. Montas and Blackburn have hit the 30 day maximum.

Also, while Peterson, Senga and even Holmes have done better with a six man rotation, not having a long man doesn’t afford that luxury.

I agree that Stearns got his hand caught in the cookie jar, sort of, but the offense’s miseries probably are equally to blame.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

There's no question that the offense is offensive. This is sadly predicable on an annual basis. Jeckyll and Hyde. But the pitching is really a shame. The shortcomings have been obvious, and worse directly planned for with the nibbling at the margins and hubris of believing in the pitching fountain of youth they had with Manaea and Severino. He willfully did not do enough and this team will pay.

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Texas Gus's avatar

It’s not that he didn’t do enough, it’s that his decisions didn’t work out. No one complained about not adding the soft tossing Quintana after they wouldn’t even use him in the playoffs and he sucked all year until September. No one was going to give Severino 3/$67.

That he rushed to give Montas 2/$34, we all agree to and I’m sure he does too; everyone makes mistakes. His owner once again wanted to make a splash so he give a contract worth $900MM (just like 2022 when he needed to get his new toy’s best friend to the team and got played by the Cubs); we all know that’s not Stearns’ way. And he inherited a LF for the next six years. And he’s over the tax penalty…

Soto should go to the Yankees and let him and Judge rock, and the Mets should reload with Vientos at first, Mauricio at 3B, Baty somewhere, and sign Tucker for RF at a more sane amount. Bring up your kid pitchers and stop loving the old player so much.

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Chris Flanders's avatar

I dont know Gus. My thought he didnt do enough rests on the high gamble of picking a string of back end pitchers to fill a rotation. In my eyes he never came close to enough in assembling this year staff. He doubled down at the trade deadline focusing only on relievers with the “hope” there is enough there to get to the pen. Ive never seen it.

I just cant endorse moving Vientos to 1B. He has so little natural talent for the field (even at his preferred position), that sticking him at 1B is conceding that he will own the most errors in baseball should he play a season there – have you seen how much gymnastics Pete has to do to catch a ball coming from wayward throws? He’s responsible for a 15 foot diameter around the base. Vientos wont even get 50% of those throws. Do you want to see him struggle as DH, the only position he seems capable of? Im in favor of playing the kids as long as they can actually be complete league-average players. Mauricio is probably the best of the three and conceivably can play 3B regularly, but let’s be honest, he’s not the cure for the “hot corner blues”. Neither is Baty, but he’s a passable fielder despite not being able to hit the broad-side of a barn with a tennis racket. Are they the answer for sustained play-off runs??? Is Baty the answer at 2B? I dont get that feeling personally. I dont want to lose Soto, no way, but clearly there is a need to address the rotation on a much more serious level than Stearns thus far has in my opinion. Too bad we didnt trade for Shane Bieber.

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Texas Gus's avatar

Starting at the bottom, we don’t know when Shane Bieber is coming back. It’s assumed by the playoffs, but….

I think that Vientos improved markedly last year, and his attempts to become more agile by losing weight and working in his flexibility during the winter had to be for his defense. So many good hitters initially were butchers but learned to play their position, sometimes aplomb. Some names that I recall: Brett, Schmidt, Gwynn, Carew, Sandberg, Piazza….

Mauricio has all the tools. Want to let the kid grow?

I agree that he got a bunch fifth starters and said ‘since they go five innings anyway, I won’t spend money there’. But, unfortunately the quality lacks. The Dodgers went and got aces, the Mets got lottery tickets as it’s my belief he tries to get under the cap at some point, otherwise why not sign the best he can?

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Brian Joura's avatar

Good point about the 30 days for minor league rehab. Let's see how this worked out for our four:

Manaea - Made 4 starts from 6/6-6/19 and then had another injury which reset the 30-day window. Made 2 starts from 7/2-7/8 and then was recalled.

Montas - Made 6 starts from 5/24-6/18

Senga - Just the 1 start

Blackburn - Started at 4/19 and then had it reset. Made 6 starts from 5/02-6/28

All four of these pitchers could have made an additional minor league rehab appearance, with Manaea and Senga having time to make multiple appearances.

As for the long man - they've had one pitcher cycling thru the last bullpen spot to serve in that capacity, with Rico Garcia and Austin Warren being the most-recent ones to make multi-inning appearances. Both of those guys are off the roster, with Dom Hamel now holding that role.

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AgingBull's avatar

So Montas gets another start on Saturday, with or without an opener, against the red hot Brewers. I’d say that by mid-August we’ll have a better handle on whatever the plan is. Ride and die with the staff today or bring up one or two of the prospects from Syracuse. They’ll each get one or two starts and then another decision will need to be made. In hindsight, it is perplexing that the starting staff wasn’t bolstered at the deadline given the “win-now” approach. Well, maybe not in hindsight, as many were clamoring for some reinforcements. When the starters give up 7 and 5 runs, the probabity of a win is low. But getting 4-8 hits and 2-3 runs a game doesn’t get it done either. THey need an offensive shake-up as much as a SP one.

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