Strong column, Brian. Your job is much like the columnists, without the access and supporting infrastructure. You need to put out fresh content constantly. This site’s audience will not tolerate the rehash/reposts that so many other Mets site do. You and the M360 contributors (whether bylined or not - looking at you Metsense, Chris F, and Gus and others) deliver on this every day. So thank you for what you do.
I had to chuckle reading your observation about the missed pun opportunity with the Madrigal signing. OMG, someone could have topped the charts with a lyrical pun.
I struggle with putting out as much content as I do and that's typically one a day. I really feel for the sites like SNY, which have to put out 5-10X more than that. Video helps, as does putting out 1-2 paragraph updates. But we should be grateful for the content they provide.
I'm not sure why the Mets having a guy who worked at Driveline (Eric Jagers) would keep them from having their players train there in the offseason. I didn't hear anything about bad blood. Jagers had already worked for other MLB clubs before joining the Mets.
Brian, I agree with Bull - great job finding fresh content.
I took interest in your points about the hitting with runners in scoring position. I have done a bunch of research and math on that that specific point for both individual hitters and the team as a whole, going beyond the OPS to come up with a 'Runs Produced Ratio'. I am still not sure what a gold standard is - it appears that if you can score 20% of the runners you get in scoring position, that is pretty top of the heap. The Mets in 2024 scored 17.8% of all runners that got to second while the D-backs scored 20.1% of them. The Dodgers scored 18.7% of their runners in scoring position with a slightly lower OPS of .790 (than the Mets .809).
One place the Mets can improve is their hitting with runners on third base. While the OPS with runners in scoring position is a not bad .809, it is buoyed by a very high .871 with runners on first and second only and also .837 with a runner only on second base. With a runner only on third base, their OPS fell to .722 and an even lower .716 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with first base being open. With runners on first and third they were at .753, and with the bases flooded, the OPS was at .744. The major OPS damage they did with RISP was without a guy on third.
Just a point of comparison, the D-backs scored 27.5% of their runners from third - the Mets 21.7%.
Wow. Very interesting new stats, Bill. It seems like a counting stat, like runs, is also important. a team or player might be highly efficient but not have that many opportunities. The counting stat might be more valid at a team level though. Stuff to ponder as we await ST.
I actually have done more work on it for individual hitters than the whole team.
Brandon Nimmo is one of the more efficient Mets hitters at getting the runs in. Pete Alonso is not particularly good at it.
Francisco Lindor had some eye-popping numbers in 2023 when he drove in 37.9% of the runners that were on third base in his plate appearances. 2024 was a down year for him in that regard with only 21.1% of the 3rd base runners scoring for him. Overall, his .263 'Runs Produced Ratio (RPR)' over his career is a very good number. He is driving in 26.3% of the runners on third base during his plate appearances. The 37.9% that Lindor maintained in 2023 is an off the chart number. A lot of that was due to his 1.62 OPS with the bases loaded (and 1.31 OPS with runners on first and third). Oddly, he did not hit well without that runner on 3rd - only .494 OPS with runners on first and second. He had two more hits with the bases loaded (8 for 13) than he did with runners on first and second (just 6 for 45). Weird.
As a comparison, Henry Aaron, the all time RBI king of the major leagues drove in 26.0% of the runners on 3rd base for his career. Albert Pujols was slightly higher with 26.9%.
A quick follow-up on the 'weird' Lindor numbers. In 2024, Franciso had a .851 OPS with RISP (any configuration of runners on 2nd and 3rd) and drove in 19.0% of them. In 2023, his OPS for all RISP was .778, (73 points less) yet his Runs Produced Ratio (the percent of runners he drove in) was higher (20.2%) due to his prolific hitting with the runners on 3rd base.
That's likely the reason. If you take any hitter, you see wild year-to-year fluctuations with their RISP. Here's some OPS examples from David Wright:
2007 - .976
2008 - .703
2009 - .827
2011 - .765
2012 - .940
2013 - .775
But for his career, Wright had an .850 OPS with RISP, compared to an .867 OPS overall. Typically, the league averages show a higher OPS with RISP than overall. But what's normal for the group doesn't mean it's normal for every individual - no different than BABIP in this regard.
Either that or we have to consider that Wright wasn't "clutch"...
I took a deeper look at David Wright and his wild year to year spreads of OPS with RISP. I wanted to see how his RBI efficiency (Runs Produced Ratio) correlated:
2007 - .976 OPS .220 RPR
2008 - .703 OPS .204 RPR
2009 - .827 OPS .183 RPR
2010 - ,836 OPS .222 RPR
2011 - .765 OPS .182 RPR
2012 - .940 OPS .218 RPR
2013 - .775 OPS .188 RPR
2014 - .687 OPS .204 RPR
2015 - .910 OPS .177 RPR
Career - .850 OPS .205 RPR
There is a rough correlation between OPS and RBI efficiency, but it isn't as cut and dry as one might think, as evidenced by 2009 and 2014. .220 RPR for RISP is very good, .180 is not really. David's .205 career RPR seems to be above average (with only a small sample of hitters to gauge)
Some Career RPR numbers with RISP:
Wright - .205 (1921 PA with RISP)
Alonso - .178 (986 PA)
Nimmo - .182 (783 PA)
Lindor - .192 (1450 PA)
Vientos - .190 (118 PA)
Soto - .196 (1042 PA)
Keith Hernandez - .215 (2551 PA)
Aaron - .216 (3589 PA) (Excellent) .996 RISP OPS
Pujols - .215 (3476 PA) (Excellent) .998 RISP OPS
Bonds - .185 (3421 PA) (WITH a 1.121 Career RISP OPS)
A ton of walks took the bat out of his hands
The Hernandez number is his full career. I have not done the split to figure out his numbers just with the Mets. I suspect they are close to his total career, but I can't call that. Sometime I will find out how close Wright is to the top of the Mets list of RBI efficiency. With his very good .205 mark with all RISP, I would certainly not ding him for not being clutch!
Alonso's PA with Baty and Mauricio is the question of this lineup. They can split the time up at third base. Mauricio will also be the middle infielder backup. Can they produce a 4.6 fWAR like Alonso
and Iglesias did? I think they will come up short. Winker and Marte and also Taylor and Siri should be similar or better than Martinez and Bader/Taylor. The real Improvement is the fWAR in right field with Soto and his 680 PA and the overall defense of the team.
Alonso and Iglesias combined for 986 PA last year. I'd be shocked if Baty and Mauricio had that many. If somehow they did, I'd say they'd surpass that 4.6 fWAR total.
Brian, I read the article you linked above and was fascinated. In fact, I think it’s about time I started learning more about this area because it appears that if you are a baseball fan, this information may soon be included in broadcasts and baseball shows, so it’s good to have familiarity. As the Keith Hernandez’s and Ron Darling’s fade away, the next group of announcers will undoubtedly refer to this as common understanding, but it won’t be that for me. I will YouTube these concepts to hopefully get a beginner’s tutorial on how they work. As an inhaler of strategy and mindset for what goes into a game that I’m watching, I would probably enjoy it more if I knew why coaches are strategizing in a certain way or players do certain specific things that would give my enjoyment greater depth and appreciation.
Strong column, Brian. Your job is much like the columnists, without the access and supporting infrastructure. You need to put out fresh content constantly. This site’s audience will not tolerate the rehash/reposts that so many other Mets site do. You and the M360 contributors (whether bylined or not - looking at you Metsense, Chris F, and Gus and others) deliver on this every day. So thank you for what you do.
I had to chuckle reading your observation about the missed pun opportunity with the Madrigal signing. OMG, someone could have topped the charts with a lyrical pun.
Thanks for the kind words, Bull!
I struggle with putting out as much content as I do and that's typically one a day. I really feel for the sites like SNY, which have to put out 5-10X more than that. Video helps, as does putting out 1-2 paragraph updates. But we should be grateful for the content they provide.
True. But that’s their job and they have resources and access.
Im a little surprised that Manaea is at driveline considering a founder of driveline runs the Mets pitching lab now.
Would be nice to see the revamped rotation get hyper competitive with each other
I'm not sure why the Mets having a guy who worked at Driveline (Eric Jagers) would keep them from having their players train there in the offseason. I didn't hear anything about bad blood. Jagers had already worked for other MLB clubs before joining the Mets.
Here's a nice Q&A with Jagers -- https://metsmerizedonline.com/mmo-exclusive-eric-jagers-director-of-pitching-development/
Im just thinking shouldn’t the Mets pitching lab have everything and more than driveline?
Aha - gotcha.
This is a new Driveline location, I believe close to Manaea's home. Maybe that's the reason.
Brian, I agree with Bull - great job finding fresh content.
I took interest in your points about the hitting with runners in scoring position. I have done a bunch of research and math on that that specific point for both individual hitters and the team as a whole, going beyond the OPS to come up with a 'Runs Produced Ratio'. I am still not sure what a gold standard is - it appears that if you can score 20% of the runners you get in scoring position, that is pretty top of the heap. The Mets in 2024 scored 17.8% of all runners that got to second while the D-backs scored 20.1% of them. The Dodgers scored 18.7% of their runners in scoring position with a slightly lower OPS of .790 (than the Mets .809).
One place the Mets can improve is their hitting with runners on third base. While the OPS with runners in scoring position is a not bad .809, it is buoyed by a very high .871 with runners on first and second only and also .837 with a runner only on second base. With a runner only on third base, their OPS fell to .722 and an even lower .716 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with first base being open. With runners on first and third they were at .753, and with the bases flooded, the OPS was at .744. The major OPS damage they did with RISP was without a guy on third.
Just a point of comparison, the D-backs scored 27.5% of their runners from third - the Mets 21.7%.
That's good info about runners on 3B - certainly not anything I was aware of.
Wow. Very interesting new stats, Bill. It seems like a counting stat, like runs, is also important. a team or player might be highly efficient but not have that many opportunities. The counting stat might be more valid at a team level though. Stuff to ponder as we await ST.
I actually have done more work on it for individual hitters than the whole team.
Brandon Nimmo is one of the more efficient Mets hitters at getting the runs in. Pete Alonso is not particularly good at it.
Francisco Lindor had some eye-popping numbers in 2023 when he drove in 37.9% of the runners that were on third base in his plate appearances. 2024 was a down year for him in that regard with only 21.1% of the 3rd base runners scoring for him. Overall, his .263 'Runs Produced Ratio (RPR)' over his career is a very good number. He is driving in 26.3% of the runners on third base during his plate appearances. The 37.9% that Lindor maintained in 2023 is an off the chart number. A lot of that was due to his 1.62 OPS with the bases loaded (and 1.31 OPS with runners on first and third). Oddly, he did not hit well without that runner on 3rd - only .494 OPS with runners on first and second. He had two more hits with the bases loaded (8 for 13) than he did with runners on first and second (just 6 for 45). Weird.
As a comparison, Henry Aaron, the all time RBI king of the major leagues drove in 26.0% of the runners on 3rd base for his career. Albert Pujols was slightly higher with 26.9%.
A quick follow-up on the 'weird' Lindor numbers. In 2024, Franciso had a .851 OPS with RISP (any configuration of runners on 2nd and 3rd) and drove in 19.0% of them. In 2023, his OPS for all RISP was .778, (73 points less) yet his Runs Produced Ratio (the percent of runners he drove in) was higher (20.2%) due to his prolific hitting with the runners on 3rd base.
RISP is somewhat random on an individual level so it's not surprising that a subset of it - like with runners on 3B - is random, too.
I'm not sure what you mean by random in this comment - are you referring to the relative small sample sizes for hitters?
That's likely the reason. If you take any hitter, you see wild year-to-year fluctuations with their RISP. Here's some OPS examples from David Wright:
2007 - .976
2008 - .703
2009 - .827
2011 - .765
2012 - .940
2013 - .775
But for his career, Wright had an .850 OPS with RISP, compared to an .867 OPS overall. Typically, the league averages show a higher OPS with RISP than overall. But what's normal for the group doesn't mean it's normal for every individual - no different than BABIP in this regard.
Either that or we have to consider that Wright wasn't "clutch"...
I took a deeper look at David Wright and his wild year to year spreads of OPS with RISP. I wanted to see how his RBI efficiency (Runs Produced Ratio) correlated:
2007 - .976 OPS .220 RPR
2008 - .703 OPS .204 RPR
2009 - .827 OPS .183 RPR
2010 - ,836 OPS .222 RPR
2011 - .765 OPS .182 RPR
2012 - .940 OPS .218 RPR
2013 - .775 OPS .188 RPR
2014 - .687 OPS .204 RPR
2015 - .910 OPS .177 RPR
Career - .850 OPS .205 RPR
There is a rough correlation between OPS and RBI efficiency, but it isn't as cut and dry as one might think, as evidenced by 2009 and 2014. .220 RPR for RISP is very good, .180 is not really. David's .205 career RPR seems to be above average (with only a small sample of hitters to gauge)
Some Career RPR numbers with RISP:
Wright - .205 (1921 PA with RISP)
Alonso - .178 (986 PA)
Nimmo - .182 (783 PA)
Lindor - .192 (1450 PA)
Vientos - .190 (118 PA)
Soto - .196 (1042 PA)
Keith Hernandez - .215 (2551 PA)
Aaron - .216 (3589 PA) (Excellent) .996 RISP OPS
Pujols - .215 (3476 PA) (Excellent) .998 RISP OPS
Bonds - .185 (3421 PA) (WITH a 1.121 Career RISP OPS)
A ton of walks took the bat out of his hands
The Hernandez number is his full career. I have not done the split to figure out his numbers just with the Mets. I suspect they are close to his total career, but I can't call that. Sometime I will find out how close Wright is to the top of the Mets list of RBI efficiency. With his very good .205 mark with all RISP, I would certainly not ding him for not being clutch!
Awesome information Bill.
Alonso's PA with Baty and Mauricio is the question of this lineup. They can split the time up at third base. Mauricio will also be the middle infielder backup. Can they produce a 4.6 fWAR like Alonso
and Iglesias did? I think they will come up short. Winker and Marte and also Taylor and Siri should be similar or better than Martinez and Bader/Taylor. The real Improvement is the fWAR in right field with Soto and his 680 PA and the overall defense of the team.
Alonso and Iglesias combined for 986 PA last year. I'd be shocked if Baty and Mauricio had that many. If somehow they did, I'd say they'd surpass that 4.6 fWAR total.
Brian, I read the article you linked above and was fascinated. In fact, I think it’s about time I started learning more about this area because it appears that if you are a baseball fan, this information may soon be included in broadcasts and baseball shows, so it’s good to have familiarity. As the Keith Hernandez’s and Ron Darling’s fade away, the next group of announcers will undoubtedly refer to this as common understanding, but it won’t be that for me. I will YouTube these concepts to hopefully get a beginner’s tutorial on how they work. As an inhaler of strategy and mindset for what goes into a game that I’m watching, I would probably enjoy it more if I knew why coaches are strategizing in a certain way or players do certain specific things that would give my enjoyment greater depth and appreciation.