Rotation later this season could be (if no further injuries): Manaea, Senga, Canning, Megill, Peterson, and Holmes. Montas ($17m.) in the pen?
Next year?: Montas, Senga, Megill, Peterson, Holmes, and Manaea. Trade someone (who?), if Sproat is ready. And what about Christian Scott? Mid-year, Nolan McLean! And there's also Tidwell looming in the bushes.....
I would expect Sproat to be ready absolutely by next year, and I hope that he pushes his way to the big club this year. As good as Canning has been so far, I'm probably least bullish on him continuing his great start. Hopefully Hefner and the pitching lab unlocked something with him, but if I had to guess, he's the one I most likely see falling off. Megill has shown flashes and then reverted in the past as well, so I'd keep an eye on him, although I like what he's done both this year and after he came back up last year.
The point is that having too many starters to fill 5-6 slots is a nice problem to have, and one that is likely to work itself out somehow.
Blackburn will will be the first casualty; he will be traded to _______.
Holmes, Montas, Senga, and Manaea are locks. Megill, Peterson and Canning will duke it out for the last two. Giving Peterson the edge due to lefty throwing, that means Megill and Canning and I don’t think Canning is better.
Yup, I left Blackburn out of all the possibilities. He will be gone. Agree on lefty Peterson. Think Megill has unlocked things and Canning might go to the pen. Good points, Tex!
The starters have been out-of-this-world so far this year. Just amazing. Petersons 3.27 ERA as the worst of them says it all.
On a separate note, Acuna’s play has forced some hard decisions. I was hugely skeptical of his ability but each day he’s demonstrating how he can impact the game. (That he was nailed at 3B twice in recent games are learning experiences that fortunately did zero damage to the final outcomes.). Anyway, if Baty can step up, I can envision a scenario where McNeil and Vientos are the DH platoon and Winker and Marte are jettisoned. McNeil, Acuna, and to a lesser extent, Baty, are Swiss Army knives and Mendoza will be challenged to find them ABs. Using them to cover the anemic DH production would be a great solution, assuming that Cohen is willing to eat the money for Marte. In my view, that’s a no-brainer. Marte is a sunk cost, whether he’s on the team or not. Taking him off the roster gives them the best shot to win, especially now that there are better options. Winker is more valuable and might be worth something on the trade market.
Au contraire. If Winker does not produce, he’s more dispensable than Marte and if he does produce, he has more trade value. I like Winker but he’ll be gone if they need ABs for someone with better production. The good news is that we’ll find out over the next few months.
Stearns signed Winker for $7.5 million. He’s gotten rid of plenty of guys he signed for $4 million or less. But, please, list me all of the guys he signed for this much that he got rid of before their contract was up.
I seriously doubt that Winker would be DFA’d. More likely, he’d be traded. But that would be a long time off and require sustained performance from both rookies and continued below average performance from Winker.
Again forgot its a day game and just logged on to my ESPN app. I knew it would be a pitching battle between Peterson and Wheeler. Still assume it will be Azocar and Senger who get sent down when McNeil and Alvarez come back. Wednesday Mets trivia: On this date in 1962, Jay Hook was the winning pitcher in a 9-1 victory over the Pirates for the Mets first victory as a franchise.
On the between week for my minor league updates it looks like Jett Williams took issue with me pushing him back to #2 in my rankings. He's had a very strong couple of games and probably bounces back to Top Prospect status.
Getting some better pitching from our big name pitching prospects as Sproat, Tidwell and Tong bounce back while McLean stays more or less strong throughout.
Jack Wenninger pitches into the Top 50. Having seen him pitch live I don't love his stuff but Wenninger has been really good for AA this year.
Santucci and Allan stumble in their most recent starts but nothing terrible.
Nate Dohm and Joel Diaz establish they belong firmly on the radar.
Ryan Lambert looks like a very good reliever.
Drew Gilbert is settling into AAA but looks mighty lonely in that lineup.
Things go from bad to worse for Kevin Parada who has added striking out all the time to his repertoire.
Ryan Clifford is doing what he needs to, showing power and the ability to take a walk (while striking out too much).
Chris Suero cools off... but he walks more.
Jesus Baez begins his Advanced A season cold but may be heating up.
Jacob Reimer is probably the best hitting prospect you were sleeping on.
Carson Benge slowed down after a strong start.
Eli Serrano is less hot but more to like than not to like.
People are starting to notice how good A.J. Ewing is playing.
I don't love a lot about Colin Houck but I sure like his power.
Marco Vargas is gunning for an early season promotion.
Joel Diaz was always highly regarded by this org. He was added to a full-season roster at the age of 18, and at a time when this org was extremely conservative with it prospects and almost never did that sort of thing.
A lot can happen before Manaea gets back. When he does then he has to step into the rotation. I would not rock the boat. I'm not keen for a 6 man rotation. I would have Peterson and Canning piggy back 4/4 innings in each turn of the traditional five men rotation. After all, a starter only average 5.1 innings anyway. Peterson and Canning then would be stretched out, somewhat, and when the schedule dictates the use of a sixth starter then spilt them for the two starts. Having Peterson or Canning get innings instead of Danny Young is preferable. Manaea would replace Young. If Blackburn is ready first then he should be a traditional long reliever and replace Young.
Blackburn already started his rehab Saturday, so should be here first. He was scratched today, but it was only for a stomach virus. And yes, the pen is the likeliest place to send him.
1972 was the year of MLB’s first players strike. The season began 10 days later than originally scheduled. It was also the year the Mets acquired Rusty Staub and Willie Mays, but tragically lost Gil Hodges (to a heart attack) and Nolan Ryan (to the worst trade in team history). I mention 1972 because the Mets started the season 25-7. They finished in 3rd place (83-73) - 11 games behind the Pirates.
Please observe carefully that I do not care to argue baseball interpretations. Just about anyone (amongst the regulars here) can do so much better than I
However, when it comes time to crunch, evaluate and digest huge arrays of numbers, there's no doubt that my abilities are most formidable by any standard.
Please note that I do not refer to traditional statistical "stuff" (such as variance, standard deviation, etc.). That is, my crunching involves using a spreadsheet with exclusive use of primitive arithmetic binary functions (+, -, /, X)
When I performed my analysis pertaining to the question
"Is Pete Alonso a bum?"
approximately 100.000% of those with an opinion answered yes, with 1 obvious exception
Thence, I set about doing an evaluation of the numbers (capitalization implied) instead of merely recapitulation/regurgitating what all the "experts" were saying
Subsequently, I discovered that my method of evaluation bears a striking similarity to the concept of wRC+
However, I assert that my method is more useful/accurate/whatever than wRC+, for which I am willing to explain my reasoning if anyone is interested
My main conclusion was that 2022 was PA's best season, not 2019
Now, given PA's amazing start of the 2025 season, if I was the typical internet bonehead, I would be gloating and demanding tribute from all the non-believers
But the truth is that I do not have a picture of PA above my bed, nor do I pray and chant to him
What I can say is that approximately 100.000% of those with an opinion were wrong, whereas I was just a bit less wrong than everyone else
Now I can get to my point
Here are PA's numbers through the first 24 games of 2025, projected to a full season, and which are amended using my method
H: 204
2B: 67
HR: 43
BB: 86
TB: 416
RBI: 168
SO: 100
Admittedly, some/most of these projections are preposterous
Of the seven listed above, I'd say the 43 HRs are, by far, the most likely achieved
Last point I want to make involves BABIP. Let's look at his yearly numbers
2019: 280
2020: 242
2021: 274
2022: 279
2023: 207
2024: 276
Four of these are internally consistent, ranging from 274 to 280
The two stinkers are 2020, which we can attribute to small sample size, and the real turkey is the 207 in 2023, which really doesn't fit with the rest
Thence, we can call 2023 an outlier, and attribute the result to bad luck
Now, let's look at 2025:
2025: 364
This is even more of an outlier than the 2023 result
This has been achieved in approximately 1/7 of a full season
There are other undeniable contributing factors, but I claim that we simply can't ignore the possibility of mere good luck
I’m not sure I follow what the point is that you’re making, but what group of people was it that 100% said Alonso was a bum? I’ve heard people question whether he is worth $X amount per year, but I don’t think I’ve heard anyone call him a bum.
I was a little bit surprised that that he was option even though he had .597 OPS and didn't earn a roster spot. I guess Stearns wanted to give a look at Azocar because he didn't have minor league options. Azocar might get some at bats in centerfield because Taylor only has a .490 OPS. Azocar has a career MLB .614 OPS and is 29 years old. I would rather see Acuna get the at bats in center field than Azocar and Baty be a LHB on the bench.
What makes you so confident that Acuna's 38 minor league games in CF qualifies him to play it in the majors? The idea that Acuna can play CF is just that: an idea. I'm willing to concede that the Mets have a better take on Acuna than we fans who never saw him play there.
Sending Azocar down not only risks losing him, but leaves the roster with only 3 true OFs, and only one legitimate CF who is not hitting this year. That is unhealthy and short-sighted.
Why are you confident that he can't? This forum is open to ideas that disagree with the Mets decisions. The Mets played him in two minor leagues seasons and didn't abandon the idea after one season. If Taylor continues his poor hitting will they insert Acocar as the starting centerfielder? Giving Acuna sometime in center field instead of Azocar is not short-sighted . In fact it would be a long-term investment because Acuna is controlled until 2031 and he seems to be a future utility player.
I did not say that putting Acuna in CF is short-sighted. I said that leaving yourself with only 3 OFs and only one proven CF is short-sighted.
And I'm not saying Acuna can't play CF or should not play there at all. I'm saying you cannot rely on him as the only option behind Taylor. And cutting Azocar amounts to doing just that.
If Taylor continues his poor hitting, I imagine he won't just get benched overnight. His playing time will slowly dwindle, and Azocar will be part of the equation to pick up some of the slack. Acuna could be, as well. Who plays how much and for how long will depend on how they each perform, both in CF and in the lineup. The point is, this leaves the Mets with multiple options and multiple tools in their tool box.
The bottom line is that sending Baty down is reversible. DFAing Azocar may not be. Especially since his earlier outright now makes him eligible to declare free agency this time around.
Rotation later this season could be (if no further injuries): Manaea, Senga, Canning, Megill, Peterson, and Holmes. Montas ($17m.) in the pen?
Next year?: Montas, Senga, Megill, Peterson, Holmes, and Manaea. Trade someone (who?), if Sproat is ready. And what about Christian Scott? Mid-year, Nolan McLean! And there's also Tidwell looming in the bushes.....
Thoughts?
I would expect Sproat to be ready absolutely by next year, and I hope that he pushes his way to the big club this year. As good as Canning has been so far, I'm probably least bullish on him continuing his great start. Hopefully Hefner and the pitching lab unlocked something with him, but if I had to guess, he's the one I most likely see falling off. Megill has shown flashes and then reverted in the past as well, so I'd keep an eye on him, although I like what he's done both this year and after he came back up last year.
The point is that having too many starters to fill 5-6 slots is a nice problem to have, and one that is likely to work itself out somehow.
Blackburn will will be the first casualty; he will be traded to _______.
Holmes, Montas, Senga, and Manaea are locks. Megill, Peterson and Canning will duke it out for the last two. Giving Peterson the edge due to lefty throwing, that means Megill and Canning and I don’t think Canning is better.
Yup, I left Blackburn out of all the possibilities. He will be gone. Agree on lefty Peterson. Think Megill has unlocked things and Canning might go to the pen. Good points, Tex!
The starters have been out-of-this-world so far this year. Just amazing. Petersons 3.27 ERA as the worst of them says it all.
On a separate note, Acuna’s play has forced some hard decisions. I was hugely skeptical of his ability but each day he’s demonstrating how he can impact the game. (That he was nailed at 3B twice in recent games are learning experiences that fortunately did zero damage to the final outcomes.). Anyway, if Baty can step up, I can envision a scenario where McNeil and Vientos are the DH platoon and Winker and Marte are jettisoned. McNeil, Acuna, and to a lesser extent, Baty, are Swiss Army knives and Mendoza will be challenged to find them ABs. Using them to cover the anemic DH production would be a great solution, assuming that Cohen is willing to eat the money for Marte. In my view, that’s a no-brainer. Marte is a sunk cost, whether he’s on the team or not. Taking him off the roster gives them the best shot to win, especially now that there are better options. Winker is more valuable and might be worth something on the trade market.
Winker isn’t going anywhere. And everyone looks good when they have a .350 BABIP, so let’s keep that in mind.
Au contraire. If Winker does not produce, he’s more dispensable than Marte and if he does produce, he has more trade value. I like Winker but he’ll be gone if they need ABs for someone with better production. The good news is that we’ll find out over the next few months.
Stearns signed Winker for $7.5 million. He’s gotten rid of plenty of guys he signed for $4 million or less. But, please, list me all of the guys he signed for this much that he got rid of before their contract was up.
I seriously doubt that Winker would be DFA’d. More likely, he’d be traded. But that would be a long time off and require sustained performance from both rookies and continued below average performance from Winker.
Again forgot its a day game and just logged on to my ESPN app. I knew it would be a pitching battle between Peterson and Wheeler. Still assume it will be Azocar and Senger who get sent down when McNeil and Alvarez come back. Wednesday Mets trivia: On this date in 1962, Jay Hook was the winning pitcher in a 9-1 victory over the Pirates for the Mets first victory as a franchise.
On the between week for my minor league updates it looks like Jett Williams took issue with me pushing him back to #2 in my rankings. He's had a very strong couple of games and probably bounces back to Top Prospect status.
Getting some better pitching from our big name pitching prospects as Sproat, Tidwell and Tong bounce back while McLean stays more or less strong throughout.
Jack Wenninger pitches into the Top 50. Having seen him pitch live I don't love his stuff but Wenninger has been really good for AA this year.
Santucci and Allan stumble in their most recent starts but nothing terrible.
Nate Dohm and Joel Diaz establish they belong firmly on the radar.
Ryan Lambert looks like a very good reliever.
Drew Gilbert is settling into AAA but looks mighty lonely in that lineup.
Things go from bad to worse for Kevin Parada who has added striking out all the time to his repertoire.
Ryan Clifford is doing what he needs to, showing power and the ability to take a walk (while striking out too much).
Chris Suero cools off... but he walks more.
Jesus Baez begins his Advanced A season cold but may be heating up.
Jacob Reimer is probably the best hitting prospect you were sleeping on.
Carson Benge slowed down after a strong start.
Eli Serrano is less hot but more to like than not to like.
People are starting to notice how good A.J. Ewing is playing.
I don't love a lot about Colin Houck but I sure like his power.
Marco Vargas is gunning for an early season promotion.
Joel Diaz was always highly regarded by this org. He was added to a full-season roster at the age of 18, and at a time when this org was extremely conservative with it prospects and almost never did that sort of thing.
A lot can happen before Manaea gets back. When he does then he has to step into the rotation. I would not rock the boat. I'm not keen for a 6 man rotation. I would have Peterson and Canning piggy back 4/4 innings in each turn of the traditional five men rotation. After all, a starter only average 5.1 innings anyway. Peterson and Canning then would be stretched out, somewhat, and when the schedule dictates the use of a sixth starter then spilt them for the two starts. Having Peterson or Canning get innings instead of Danny Young is preferable. Manaea would replace Young. If Blackburn is ready first then he should be a traditional long reliever and replace Young.
Blackburn already started his rehab Saturday, so should be here first. He was scratched today, but it was only for a stomach virus. And yes, the pen is the likeliest place to send him.
1972 was the year of MLB’s first players strike. The season began 10 days later than originally scheduled. It was also the year the Mets acquired Rusty Staub and Willie Mays, but tragically lost Gil Hodges (to a heart attack) and Nolan Ryan (to the worst trade in team history). I mention 1972 because the Mets started the season 25-7. They finished in 3rd place (83-73) - 11 games behind the Pirates.
Staub was great before he got hurt in ‘72 and Agee and Fregosi weren’t complete zeroes early in the year like they were later on.
This might be of interest
Please observe carefully that I do not care to argue baseball interpretations. Just about anyone (amongst the regulars here) can do so much better than I
However, when it comes time to crunch, evaluate and digest huge arrays of numbers, there's no doubt that my abilities are most formidable by any standard.
Please note that I do not refer to traditional statistical "stuff" (such as variance, standard deviation, etc.). That is, my crunching involves using a spreadsheet with exclusive use of primitive arithmetic binary functions (+, -, /, X)
When I performed my analysis pertaining to the question
"Is Pete Alonso a bum?"
approximately 100.000% of those with an opinion answered yes, with 1 obvious exception
Thence, I set about doing an evaluation of the numbers (capitalization implied) instead of merely recapitulation/regurgitating what all the "experts" were saying
Subsequently, I discovered that my method of evaluation bears a striking similarity to the concept of wRC+
However, I assert that my method is more useful/accurate/whatever than wRC+, for which I am willing to explain my reasoning if anyone is interested
My main conclusion was that 2022 was PA's best season, not 2019
Now, given PA's amazing start of the 2025 season, if I was the typical internet bonehead, I would be gloating and demanding tribute from all the non-believers
But the truth is that I do not have a picture of PA above my bed, nor do I pray and chant to him
What I can say is that approximately 100.000% of those with an opinion were wrong, whereas I was just a bit less wrong than everyone else
Now I can get to my point
Here are PA's numbers through the first 24 games of 2025, projected to a full season, and which are amended using my method
H: 204
2B: 67
HR: 43
BB: 86
TB: 416
RBI: 168
SO: 100
Admittedly, some/most of these projections are preposterous
Of the seven listed above, I'd say the 43 HRs are, by far, the most likely achieved
Last point I want to make involves BABIP. Let's look at his yearly numbers
2019: 280
2020: 242
2021: 274
2022: 279
2023: 207
2024: 276
Four of these are internally consistent, ranging from 274 to 280
The two stinkers are 2020, which we can attribute to small sample size, and the real turkey is the 207 in 2023, which really doesn't fit with the rest
Thence, we can call 2023 an outlier, and attribute the result to bad luck
Now, let's look at 2025:
2025: 364
This is even more of an outlier than the 2023 result
This has been achieved in approximately 1/7 of a full season
There are other undeniable contributing factors, but I claim that we simply can't ignore the possibility of mere good luck
I told you I don't chant and pray to PA
I’m not sure I follow what the point is that you’re making, but what group of people was it that 100% said Alonso was a bum? I’ve heard people question whether he is worth $X amount per year, but I don’t think I’ve heard anyone call him a bum.
I was a little bit surprised that that he was option even though he had .597 OPS and didn't earn a roster spot. I guess Stearns wanted to give a look at Azocar because he didn't have minor league options. Azocar might get some at bats in centerfield because Taylor only has a .490 OPS. Azocar has a career MLB .614 OPS and is 29 years old. I would rather see Acuna get the at bats in center field than Azocar and Baty be a LHB on the bench.
What makes you so confident that Acuna's 38 minor league games in CF qualifies him to play it in the majors? The idea that Acuna can play CF is just that: an idea. I'm willing to concede that the Mets have a better take on Acuna than we fans who never saw him play there.
Sending Azocar down not only risks losing him, but leaves the roster with only 3 true OFs, and only one legitimate CF who is not hitting this year. That is unhealthy and short-sighted.
Why are you confident that he can't? This forum is open to ideas that disagree with the Mets decisions. The Mets played him in two minor leagues seasons and didn't abandon the idea after one season. If Taylor continues his poor hitting will they insert Acocar as the starting centerfielder? Giving Acuna sometime in center field instead of Azocar is not short-sighted . In fact it would be a long-term investment because Acuna is controlled until 2031 and he seems to be a future utility player.
You're twisting what I've said.
I did not say that putting Acuna in CF is short-sighted. I said that leaving yourself with only 3 OFs and only one proven CF is short-sighted.
And I'm not saying Acuna can't play CF or should not play there at all. I'm saying you cannot rely on him as the only option behind Taylor. And cutting Azocar amounts to doing just that.
If Taylor continues his poor hitting, I imagine he won't just get benched overnight. His playing time will slowly dwindle, and Azocar will be part of the equation to pick up some of the slack. Acuna could be, as well. Who plays how much and for how long will depend on how they each perform, both in CF and in the lineup. The point is, this leaves the Mets with multiple options and multiple tools in their tool box.
The bottom line is that sending Baty down is reversible. DFAing Azocar may not be. Especially since his earlier outright now makes him eligible to declare free agency this time around.
Mets re-signed Brooks Raley to a one-year deal with a club option.
"But after just eight appearances in 2024, the lefty went down with a UCL strain and elected to get Tommy John surgery.
Rehabbing since then, Raley threw for 13 teams last week, per Sherman. His doctors believe he can begin throwing in rehab games in June."
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-brooks-raley-agree-one-year-deal