Gregory Soto, Baltimore, LHP Reliever and former closer would be an ideal rental for Mets bullpen. His April was rough but since then he has been very good .
In the Chatter last night I opposed the move where Jankowski pinch hit for Vientos in the 10th inning to sacrifice the runners over. Why? Because with 0 outs and runners in first and second there is a run expectancy of 1.5. With 1 out and runners on second and third the run expectancy is reduced to 1.4. (The Book by Tom Tango).
There isn't time expiration in baseball but outs determine when a game ends. Outs are precious and should be hoarded and not given away.
In the particular case of Jankowski in the 10th, it was at least a defensible move and possibly the right move outright.
The move has to be broken down into two sections. Should Vientos have been left in to hit and should Jankowski have bunted.
Since his return from the IL, Vientos is 2-27, with 0 BB and 9 Ks. And he's slow as molasses, making him an ideal DP candidate
This was Jankowski's first PA as a Met. He hadn't faced live pitching since 6/21 in the minors. What were the odds he was going to get a hit when he hadn't faced a competitive AB in 17 days? Let's not pretend he's a good hitter, even when completely in mid-season form.
Jankowski's a good bunter and there was a non-zero chance that he'd reach on a hit.
Furthermore, you're looking at the WE at the start of the PA and after a successful bunt. But what about the other possibilities? What if Vientos stays in and grounds into a DP? What if Vientos stays in and strikes out? What if Jankowski bats and strikes out? What if he hits into a FC and the lead runner is out? What if he hits into a FC and the middle runner is out? And if the middle runner is out - how likely is it that Jankowski can steal 2B?
Those scenarios have to be included in the analysis, too. And also to factor in how likely each one is.
It was a sound small ball move but they means they still need to put the ball and play which of course they could not. If the players had better fundamentals, Torrens could’ve just bunted the ball and squeezed a run home. They got lucky that the Brozman was on his game but didn’t you think they would have given Diaz another inning since he only threw 10 pitches?
Pulling for the good Peterson to continue to show up tonight especially with the Phillies three up on the Giants as I write this post.
I love this website. You guys have such great views. I am a fan of the bunt for a possible base hit when the third baseman may be sleeping. Otherwise, why give outs away. Trouble is our baby Mets arent really producing. I miss having a Rusty Staub on the bench to pinch hit. Our roster is out of whack. What looked like too many starters is now not enough. But the turnstyle bullpen is not good. Stearns is in a tough spot. He is now under the microscope to produce. What are the right moves? Do we go all in? If so, I dont want to give up any of our top prospects. We need some our players to catch lightning in a bottle.
Baseball is a funny game. Houston loses Bregman and Tucker and Yordan Alvarez to injury and they are in first place. Great pitching.
If we are going to trade a top prospect I want a major league ready contributor who will be here at least through next season. Just think about spring training next year with Jett Williams, Nolan McLean and Carson Benge. I am still betting on the value of Mauricio while the others like Vientos and Baty may fade away or get traded. This off season we will have to face Who's on first? Again
I concur - I love this website too. Respectfully, I’ll push back a bit on the “baby Mets aren’t really producing” comment. Don’t look now but Mauricio’s OPS is 917 in the last 7 games and 765 over the last 15. His OPS+ is now at 112 for the season. Baty’s OPS is 879 over the last 7 and 822 over the last 15 and his OPS+ is 101. I say that between the two of them, they are decidedly average. Lots of upside still but they aren’t doing the harm they were and are both hot over the past couple weeks.
Vientos is another matter and with an OPS+ of 77, he’s becoming virtually unplayable given his poor defense. Maybe he can fill in for Marte as the RH DH and hopefully he can get his offense going. But otherwise he should be riding the pine. Incidentally, Vientos OPS against lefties is an anemic 454, below Acuna territory. So maybe batting with the platoon advantage isn’T a good plan after all.
I’d hate to trade him, but they need to stash him in some way.
Thanks Bull. I had said earlier that Mauricio has the biggest upside. Power, Speed and Defense. Vientos flashed last year. He has the power, but no defense and cant run. So when he slumps, he is a big liabiliy. Baty is a better fielder, but he cant run, but has some pop. On a championship roster, we cant have a lineup from 6-9 that is not good. We really need a good center fielder and several relief arms and uf available for a reasonble price, Eugenio Suarez. And please, I cringe about Winker. He is not the answer. And now Marte on the shelf. Ouch. We have been lucky to be where we are now, but with this roster it can go either way. I know he has sucked for the Yankees but LeMahiue just got DFAd. Hey, we give all of these 24 hour pitchers a shot, why not him for a week. What will tick me off is if Stearns basically does nothing and keeps bringing in scrub pitching experiments. Manaea and Senga will be back but their innings will probably be low. I am also concerned about Holmes running out of gas. 2015 was fun, deGrom, Harvey, Syndegaard and Matz and Bartolo Colon. Road those horses to the world series. Too many injuries on the staff. Why? I dont get it. Really may be time to try Sproat and McLean to see what they have.
Wow… this should have about 25 comments by now!!!! Lots of great stuff!
Before I get into the opinions in the comments, Blackburn sucks. He had no winter or spring training and it shows; throws batting practice. Kranick is a better roster spot. The best 13 are Senga, Manaea, Holmes, Peterson, Montas, Diaz, Stanek, Garrett, Butto, Raley, Kranick, Minter, and one more that can spot start whether it’s the kids at AAA or an import.
As for the bats, in the Chatter I didn’t like the bunt because it was then obvious that McNeil would be walked. But, while Vientos is in a funk right now, success in MLB isn’t easy so I would wait on the kid.
I thought about LeMahieu also, but he is washed up. Like Brian likes to say when he isn’t trashing Acuna, the fork in his back is pretty big.
As for the big problem in the lineup, center field, I propose getting Laureano from Baltimore. Quietly having a great couple of months and he won’t be as expensive as Mullins. What would I offer? Joel Diaz, or someone like that.
Centerfield is not a problem anymore because McNeil is defensively passable, offensively superior than Mullins and Taylor is a very good defensive late inning replacement. With the emergence of Baty and Mauricio, they are better offensively than Mullins. Mullins was sub 600 OPS in May and June. You always post that you want to give the young players a chance, Baty, Mauricio and Vientos. Mullins would take away their at bats. Has I posted above, Gregory Soto should be a prime target.
Gregory Soto, Baltimore, LHP Reliever and former closer would be an ideal rental for Mets bullpen. His April was rough but since then he has been very good .
In the Chatter last night I opposed the move where Jankowski pinch hit for Vientos in the 10th inning to sacrifice the runners over. Why? Because with 0 outs and runners in first and second there is a run expectancy of 1.5. With 1 out and runners on second and third the run expectancy is reduced to 1.4. (The Book by Tom Tango).
There isn't time expiration in baseball but outs determine when a game ends. Outs are precious and should be hoarded and not given away.
I'm not a fan of bunting.
In the particular case of Jankowski in the 10th, it was at least a defensible move and possibly the right move outright.
The move has to be broken down into two sections. Should Vientos have been left in to hit and should Jankowski have bunted.
Since his return from the IL, Vientos is 2-27, with 0 BB and 9 Ks. And he's slow as molasses, making him an ideal DP candidate
This was Jankowski's first PA as a Met. He hadn't faced live pitching since 6/21 in the minors. What were the odds he was going to get a hit when he hadn't faced a competitive AB in 17 days? Let's not pretend he's a good hitter, even when completely in mid-season form.
Jankowski's a good bunter and there was a non-zero chance that he'd reach on a hit.
Furthermore, you're looking at the WE at the start of the PA and after a successful bunt. But what about the other possibilities? What if Vientos stays in and grounds into a DP? What if Vientos stays in and strikes out? What if Jankowski bats and strikes out? What if he hits into a FC and the lead runner is out? What if he hits into a FC and the middle runner is out? And if the middle runner is out - how likely is it that Jankowski can steal 2B?
Those scenarios have to be included in the analysis, too. And also to factor in how likely each one is.
It was a sound small ball move but they means they still need to put the ball and play which of course they could not. If the players had better fundamentals, Torrens could’ve just bunted the ball and squeezed a run home. They got lucky that the Brozman was on his game but didn’t you think they would have given Diaz another inning since he only threw 10 pitches?
Pulling for the good Peterson to continue to show up tonight especially with the Phillies three up on the Giants as I write this post.
I love this website. You guys have such great views. I am a fan of the bunt for a possible base hit when the third baseman may be sleeping. Otherwise, why give outs away. Trouble is our baby Mets arent really producing. I miss having a Rusty Staub on the bench to pinch hit. Our roster is out of whack. What looked like too many starters is now not enough. But the turnstyle bullpen is not good. Stearns is in a tough spot. He is now under the microscope to produce. What are the right moves? Do we go all in? If so, I dont want to give up any of our top prospects. We need some our players to catch lightning in a bottle.
Baseball is a funny game. Houston loses Bregman and Tucker and Yordan Alvarez to injury and they are in first place. Great pitching.
If we are going to trade a top prospect I want a major league ready contributor who will be here at least through next season. Just think about spring training next year with Jett Williams, Nolan McLean and Carson Benge. I am still betting on the value of Mauricio while the others like Vientos and Baty may fade away or get traded. This off season we will have to face Who's on first? Again
I concur - I love this website too. Respectfully, I’ll push back a bit on the “baby Mets aren’t really producing” comment. Don’t look now but Mauricio’s OPS is 917 in the last 7 games and 765 over the last 15. His OPS+ is now at 112 for the season. Baty’s OPS is 879 over the last 7 and 822 over the last 15 and his OPS+ is 101. I say that between the two of them, they are decidedly average. Lots of upside still but they aren’t doing the harm they were and are both hot over the past couple weeks.
Vientos is another matter and with an OPS+ of 77, he’s becoming virtually unplayable given his poor defense. Maybe he can fill in for Marte as the RH DH and hopefully he can get his offense going. But otherwise he should be riding the pine. Incidentally, Vientos OPS against lefties is an anemic 454, below Acuna territory. So maybe batting with the platoon advantage isn’T a good plan after all.
I’d hate to trade him, but they need to stash him in some way.
Thanks Bull. I had said earlier that Mauricio has the biggest upside. Power, Speed and Defense. Vientos flashed last year. He has the power, but no defense and cant run. So when he slumps, he is a big liabiliy. Baty is a better fielder, but he cant run, but has some pop. On a championship roster, we cant have a lineup from 6-9 that is not good. We really need a good center fielder and several relief arms and uf available for a reasonble price, Eugenio Suarez. And please, I cringe about Winker. He is not the answer. And now Marte on the shelf. Ouch. We have been lucky to be where we are now, but with this roster it can go either way. I know he has sucked for the Yankees but LeMahiue just got DFAd. Hey, we give all of these 24 hour pitchers a shot, why not him for a week. What will tick me off is if Stearns basically does nothing and keeps bringing in scrub pitching experiments. Manaea and Senga will be back but their innings will probably be low. I am also concerned about Holmes running out of gas. 2015 was fun, deGrom, Harvey, Syndegaard and Matz and Bartolo Colon. Road those horses to the world series. Too many injuries on the staff. Why? I dont get it. Really may be time to try Sproat and McLean to see what they have.
Wow… this should have about 25 comments by now!!!! Lots of great stuff!
Before I get into the opinions in the comments, Blackburn sucks. He had no winter or spring training and it shows; throws batting practice. Kranick is a better roster spot. The best 13 are Senga, Manaea, Holmes, Peterson, Montas, Diaz, Stanek, Garrett, Butto, Raley, Kranick, Minter, and one more that can spot start whether it’s the kids at AAA or an import.
As for the bats, in the Chatter I didn’t like the bunt because it was then obvious that McNeil would be walked. But, while Vientos is in a funk right now, success in MLB isn’t easy so I would wait on the kid.
I thought about LeMahieu also, but he is washed up. Like Brian likes to say when he isn’t trashing Acuna, the fork in his back is pretty big.
As for the big problem in the lineup, center field, I propose getting Laureano from Baltimore. Quietly having a great couple of months and he won’t be as expensive as Mullins. What would I offer? Joel Diaz, or someone like that.
Centerfield is not a problem anymore because McNeil is defensively passable, offensively superior than Mullins and Taylor is a very good defensive late inning replacement. With the emergence of Baty and Mauricio, they are better offensively than Mullins. Mullins was sub 600 OPS in May and June. You always post that you want to give the young players a chance, Baty, Mauricio and Vientos. Mullins would take away their at bats. Has I posted above, Gregory Soto should be a prime target.
Jankowski DFA'd, Acuna recalled and Austin Warren recalled for the DH.